Dover Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Dardanelle. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 1 and the first fall freeze around November 2, a growing season of about 215 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 13, first October 24
- Median at 32°F
- last April 1, first November 2
- Median at 28°F
- last March 19, first November 12
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 28 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 |
| 32°F | Apr 17 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 16 |
| 28°F | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Mar 1 |
| 24°F | Mar 24 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 12 |
| 20°F | Mar 12 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 | Jan 24 |
| 16°F | Mar 1 | Feb 19 | Feb 11 | Feb 5 | Jan 31 | Jan 26 | Jan 20 | Jan 13 | Dec 31 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 11 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 |
| 32°F | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 16 |
| 28°F | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 30 |
| 24°F | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 25 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 |
| 20°F | Nov 16 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 | Dec 14 | Dec 20 | Dec 26 | Jan 2 |
| 16°F | Dec 1 | Dec 10 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Dec 29 | Jan 2 | Jan 7 | Jan 14 | Jan 23 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 214 | 207 | 202 | 198 | 195 | 191 | 187 | 182 | 175 |
| 32°F | 236 | 228 | 223 | 219 | 215 | 212 | 207 | 202 | 196 |
| 28°F | 262 | 254 | 250 | 244 | 240 | 235 | 230 | 224 | 216 |
| 24°F | 290 | 281 | 274 | 269 | 264 | 259 | 253 | 248 | 240 |
| 20°F | 327 | 315 | 306 | 300 | 295 | 289 | 281 | 273 | 264 |
| 16°F | 360 | 348 | 339 | 333 | 327 | 320 | 314 | 305 | 296 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 93% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,189
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,041
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 8,238
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 6,698
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 5,312
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 4,073
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,982
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 772 | 0 | 21 |
| February | 576 | 1 | 46 |
| March | 389 | 10 | 162 |
| April | 151 | 49 | 357 |
| May | 29 | 188 | 625 |
| June | 0 | 395 | 844 |
| July | 0 | 530 | 995 |
| August | 0 | 502 | 967 |
| September | 9 | 284 | 724 |
| October | 133 | 76 | 414 |
| November | 432 | 7 | 122 |
| December | 696 | 1 | 33 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 19.3 km from Dover. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00031838 (Dardanelle). Public domain.