Yarnell Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Wickenburg. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around March 7 and the first fall freeze around November 20, a growing season of about 254 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 3, first November 9
- Median at 32°F
- last March 7, first November 20
- Median at 28°F
- last February 14, first December 2
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 25 | Apr 18 | Apr 11 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 24 | Mar 17 | Mar 11 |
| 32°F | Apr 8 | Mar 30 | Mar 18 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 14 |
| 28°F | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 24 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 9 | Feb 4 | Jan 27 | Jan 15 |
| 24°F | Feb 22 | Feb 12 | Feb 5 | Jan 29 | Jan 20 | Jan 11 | Jan 4 | Dec 29 | Dec 19 |
| 20°F | Feb 11 | Jan 31 | Jan 19 | Jan 11 | Jan 4 | Dec 31 | Dec 27 | Dec 21 | Dec 11 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 24 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 |
| 32°F | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 |
| 28°F | Nov 14 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 22 |
| 24°F | Nov 27 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 11 | Dec 15 | Dec 20 | Dec 25 | Dec 31 | Jan 12 |
| 20°F | Dec 7 | Dec 14 | Dec 21 | Dec 26 | Dec 29 | Jan 1 | Jan 7 | Jan 17 | Jan 31 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 245 | 237 | 230 | 224 | 219 | 214 | 208 | 201 | 191 |
| 32°F | 282 | 273 | 266 | 260 | 254 | 249 | 241 | 233 | 223 |
| 28°F | 325 | 311 | 303 | 296 | 290 | 284 | 279 | 272 | 261 |
| 24°F | 365 | 355 | 346 | 339 | 333 | 325 | 316 | 306 | 297 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 359 | 348 | 337 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 91% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 40% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 4% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 1,985
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,807
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 9,958
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 8,183
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 6,532
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 5,078
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 3,844
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 474 | 0 | 66 |
| February | 358 | 0 | 99 |
| March | 229 | 11 | 257 |
| April | 92 | 55 | 414 |
| May | 16 | 232 | 681 |
| June | 0 | 488 | 938 |
| July | 0 | 724 | 1,189 |
| August | 0 | 690 | 1,155 |
| September | 0 | 459 | 909 |
| October | 42 | 143 | 566 |
| November | 262 | 8 | 214 |
| December | 510 | 0 | 47 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 27 km from Yarnell. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00029287 (Wickenburg). Public domain.