Willcox Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Willcox. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 9 and the first fall freeze around October 31, a growing season of about 204 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 26, first October 22
- Median at 32°F
- last April 9, first October 31
- Median at 28°F
- last March 16, first November 12
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 10 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 9 |
| 32°F | Apr 29 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 20 |
| 28°F | Apr 10 | Apr 2 | Mar 27 | Mar 21 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 24 |
| 24°F | Mar 13 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 18 | Feb 12 | Feb 6 | Jan 30 |
| 20°F | Feb 26 | Feb 18 | Feb 11 | Feb 6 | Feb 1 | Jan 29 | Jan 23 | Jan 16 | Jan 5 |
| 16°F | Feb 10 | Feb 1 | Jan 28 | Jan 22 | Jan 17 | Jan 11 | Jan 3 | Dec 27 | Dec 14 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 29 | Nov 3 |
| 32°F | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 |
| 28°F | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 |
| 24°F | Nov 8 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 |
| 20°F | Nov 21 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 19 | Dec 25 | Jan 3 |
| 16°F | Dec 1 | Dec 8 | Dec 15 | Dec 23 | Dec 29 | Jan 3 | Jan 9 | Jan 16 | Jan 27 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 198 | 191 | 186 | 182 | 178 | 175 | 170 | 166 | 159 |
| 32°F | 225 | 220 | 214 | 209 | 204 | 199 | 194 | 189 | 181 |
| 28°F | 264 | 254 | 248 | 243 | 237 | 232 | 225 | 218 | 209 |
| 24°F | 303 | 293 | 285 | 279 | 274 | 268 | 262 | 257 | 246 |
| 20°F | 343 | 332 | 325 | 317 | 311 | 306 | 299 | 291 | 281 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 358 | 348 | 342 | 335 | 329 | 316 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 98% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 72% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 2,758
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,787
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 8,211
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 6,534
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 5,044
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,771
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,691
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 625 | 0 | 13 |
| February | 466 | 0 | 43 |
| March | 340 | 1 | 155 |
| April | 164 | 19 | 310 |
| May | 35 | 142 | 572 |
| June | 1 | 382 | 831 |
| July | 0 | 490 | 955 |
| August | 0 | 437 | 902 |
| September | 3 | 269 | 715 |
| October | 100 | 48 | 415 |
| November | 379 | 1 | 122 |
| December | 645 | 0 | 12 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 0.5 km from Willcox. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00029334 (Willcox). Public domain.