Sells Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Kitt Peak. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 26 and the first fall freeze around November 4, a growing season of about 195 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 7, first October 26
- Median at 32°F
- last April 26, first November 4
- Median at 28°F
- last April 7, first November 17
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 29 | May 20 | May 16 | May 12 | May 7 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 18 |
| 32°F | May 17 | May 9 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 21 | Apr 15 | Apr 9 | Apr 1 |
| 28°F | May 5 | Apr 27 | Apr 21 | Apr 14 | Apr 7 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 21 | Mar 8 |
| 24°F | Apr 23 | Apr 9 | Mar 31 | Mar 25 | Mar 17 | Mar 9 | Mar 2 | Feb 22 | Feb 10 |
| 20°F | Mar 31 | Mar 14 | Mar 3 | Feb 25 | Feb 17 | Feb 7 | Jan 29 | Jan 17 | Jan 3 |
| 16°F | Feb 27 | Feb 16 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 | Jan 23 | Jan 14 | Jan 7 | Dec 31 | Dec 18 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 10 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 |
| 32°F | Oct 18 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 24 |
| 28°F | Oct 27 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 |
| 24°F | Nov 9 | Nov 17 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 12 | Dec 17 | Dec 25 |
| 20°F | Nov 23 | Dec 1 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 18 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 8 | Jan 29 |
| 16°F | Dec 3 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 28 | Jan 2 | Jan 8 | Jan 16 | Jan 30 | Feb 10 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 198 | 190 | 183 | 178 | 171 | 166 | 161 | 155 | 146 |
| 32°F | 225 | 214 | 208 | 202 | 195 | 190 | 182 | 176 | 165 |
| 28°F | 257 | 245 | 237 | 230 | 223 | 216 | 209 | 202 | 190 |
| 24°F | 300 | 285 | 275 | 267 | 258 | 250 | 243 | 234 | 223 |
| 20°F | 349 | 335 | 323 | 310 | 300 | 291 | 281 | 270 | 257 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 358 | 348 | 339 | 330 | 319 | 303 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 96% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 69% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,992
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 616
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,040
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,542
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,241
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,158
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,283
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 710 | 0 | 16 |
| February | 626 | 0 | 22 |
| March | 570 | 0 | 59 |
| April | 386 | 2 | 135 |
| May | 194 | 33 | 321 |
| June | 26 | 161 | 585 |
| July | 9 | 178 | 634 |
| August | 12 | 142 | 595 |
| September | 47 | 85 | 489 |
| October | 227 | 15 | 274 |
| November | 473 | 0 | 92 |
| December | 713 | 0 | 20 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 27.3 km from Sells. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00024675 (Kitt Peak). Public domain.