Chinle Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Canyon De Chelly. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 6 and the first fall freeze around October 8, a growing season of about 153 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 21, first October 1
- Median at 32°F
- last May 6, first October 8
- Median at 28°F
- last April 24, first October 18
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 9 | Jun 3 | May 30 | May 25 | May 21 | May 18 | May 14 | May 10 | May 3 |
| 32°F | May 31 | May 22 | May 15 | May 11 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 |
| 28°F | May 12 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 8 |
| 24°F | Apr 27 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 22 |
| 20°F | Apr 13 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 2 |
| 16°F | Mar 31 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 17 | Feb 8 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 |
| 32°F | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 |
| 28°F | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 10 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 2 |
| 24°F | Oct 11 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 |
| 20°F | Oct 23 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 |
| 16°F | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 151 | 146 | 140 | 136 | 132 | 128 | 123 | 118 | 110 |
| 32°F | 173 | 167 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 149 | 144 | 138 | 130 |
| 28°F | 198 | 191 | 185 | 180 | 176 | 171 | 166 | 160 | 151 |
| 24°F | 222 | 215 | 210 | 206 | 201 | 196 | 191 | 185 | 177 |
| 20°F | 253 | 246 | 240 | 234 | 229 | 223 | 218 | 213 | 203 |
| 16°F | 287 | 277 | 269 | 264 | 259 | 253 | 247 | 241 | 230 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,162
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 985
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,755
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,488
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,391
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,448
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,648
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,042 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 781 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 622 | 0 | 25 |
| April | 381 | 1 | 128 |
| May | 153 | 40 | 359 |
| June | 15 | 203 | 637 |
| July | 0 | 358 | 823 |
| August | 1 | 288 | 752 |
| September | 54 | 92 | 489 |
| October | 353 | 3 | 163 |
| November | 720 | 0 | 12 |
| December | 1,040 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 1.2 km from Chinle. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00021248 (Canyon De Chelly). Public domain.