Farmers Loop Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Aurora. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 16 and the first fall freeze around September 6, a growing season of about 112 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 27, first August 27
- Median at 32°F
- last May 16, first September 6
- Median at 28°F
- last May 7, first September 18
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 8 | Jun 3 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 27 | May 25 | May 21 | May 18 | May 14 |
| 32°F | May 29 | May 25 | May 21 | May 18 | May 16 | May 13 | May 12 | May 9 | May 5 |
| 28°F | May 19 | May 14 | May 11 | May 9 | May 7 | May 4 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 |
| 24°F | May 11 | May 7 | May 4 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 |
| 20°F | May 5 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 |
| 16°F | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Aug 13 | Aug 18 | Aug 22 | Aug 24 | Aug 27 | Aug 30 | Sep 1 | Sep 4 | Sep 8 |
| 32°F | Aug 25 | Aug 30 | Sep 1 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 20 |
| 28°F | Sep 4 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 |
| 24°F | Sep 14 | Sep 19 | Sep 23 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 |
| 20°F | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 |
| 16°F | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 108 | 102 | 98 | 94 | 91 | 87 | 84 | 78 | 72 |
| 32°F | 130 | 125 | 120 | 115 | 112 | 109 | 105 | 100 | 92 |
| 28°F | 150 | 144 | 140 | 136 | 133 | 129 | 125 | 121 | 115 |
| 24°F | 167 | 162 | 157 | 153 | 150 | 147 | 143 | 139 | 133 |
| 20°F | 182 | 176 | 171 | 168 | 164 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 148 |
| 16°F | 192 | 187 | 183 | 180 | 176 | 173 | 170 | 165 | 159 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 13,314
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 49
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 2,368
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 1,634
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,010
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 525
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 204
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 2,244 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,757 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,610 | 0 | 0 |
| April | 927 | 0 | 4 |
| May | 463 | 1 | 88 |
| June | 161 | 21 | 314 |
| July | 109 | 23 | 380 |
| August | 279 | 4 | 200 |
| September | 600 | 0 | 24 |
| October | 1,211 | 0 | 1 |
| November | 1,818 | 0 | 0 |
| December | 2,138 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 6 km from Farmers Loop. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00500490 (Aurora). Public domain.