Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

 - Storm chances along with some threat for severe storms will
   persist through Saturday.

 - Rain chances decrease and temperatures warm Sunday into the
   first part of next week. Afternoon heat index values may reach
   triple digits in a few spots.

 - Unsettled weather returns later next week with daily shower and
   storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper flow over the region has flipped back to the more
traditional W to SW flow and increased some, as an upper trough
ejects northeast toward the central Rockies and a subtropical jet
ahead of it extends into the south-central CONUS. It was an active
day over north-central OK, with numerous storms developing off the
dryline and producing big wind gusts and some hail. This activity
has largely stayed out of NE OK thus far, though there is still some
chance lingering waa activity slides across far NE OK close to the
KS border through the night. There has been inconsistent signals
presented in CAM data going into tomorrow morning. Some runs have
suggested MCS development north of the KS border with activity
eventually bending southeast to clip parts of the forecast area
and leaving an outflow boundary. Later runs have backed off from
this scenario. PoPs in the near term will use the raw 1 hr NBM
PoP instead of PPI, backing away from likely PoPs in the
northeast. Focus will then shift back to the dryline out west.
Marginal westerly deep-layer shear in combination with late May
instability will support some risk for severe storms Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The upper trough is expected to lift northeast across the central
and northern Plains on Sunday. Rising mid-level heights across the
forecast area will reduce the chances of any storms developing to
our west and affecting our region. Afternoon highs will climb
into the low 90s, and combined with the high humidity in place will
yield heat indices near the triple digit mark in some spots. Upper
heights continue to rise into Monday as the central CONUS ridge
amplifies/broadens and another afternoon with highs in the low 90s
and heat indices near the triple digits is expected. After another
hot and humid day Tuesday with only low rain chances, temperatures
and humidity will dial back a bit by Wednesday and Thursday as an
expansive surface high centered over the Great Lakes back-doors some
cooler and drier air into the forecast area from the east and
northeast. The best rain/storm chances should stay west of the
forecast area in this scenario. The central CONUS ridge breaks down
during the latter part of the week, and rain/storm chances will ramp
up by next Friday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

With ongoing convection in northeast Oklahoma, will continue
Prob30 groups for far northwest Arkansas into the overnight
hours. Otherwise, scattered to broken high clouds are anticipated
for the CWA into Saturday morning. There remains potential for a
period of MVFR conditions developing late tonight/early Saturday
morning in far northwest Arkansas and will continue with a tempo
group for timing. For Saturday, scattered to broken mid and high
clouds are forecast, while additional storm chances remain. The
greater storm potential is across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Thus, have added Prob30 groups for general
timing. By mid/late evening Saturday, mostly high clouds look to
remain. Winds start out light/variable tonight, and become breezy
out of the south Saturday before subsiding again Saturday
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  92  73  93 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   72  93  72  94 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   75  93  74  94 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   69  92  71  93 /  40   0   0  10
FYV   71  89  72  91 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   68  87  68  89 /  30  20  10  20
MKO   72  91  72  92 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   70  91  71  91 /  40  10  10  10
F10   71  93  72  94 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   73  92  72  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
506 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-302215-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
506 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Around 7 PM.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms over north-central Oklahoma are expected to move
into northeast Oklahoma by late this afternoon. These storms will
pose a limited to near elevated severe weather risk. Damaging
winds and large hail are the main threats. There is some chance
that these storms will hold together enough to move across
northeast Oklahoma this evening and possibly into far northwest
Arkansas after midnight tonight. The severe risk is expected to
drop as we head into tonight, but an isolated severe storm is
possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms may develop along the dryline to our west
Saturday afternoon. These storms may affect portions of northeast
Oklahoma during the late afternoon or into Saturday night. These
storms will carry a limited or marginal severe weather risk, with
large hail and damaging wind the main threats.

After a couple of dry and hot days Sunday and Monday with
afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees, thunderstorm chances
return by Monday night and will persist well into next week, along
with relatively cooler temperatures.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ154-300330-
Western Osage OK-
947 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 947 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northeast of Kaw Lake, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9640 3699 9640 3665 9650 3665 9706
      3670 9705 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 270DEG 22KT 3683 9682

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

OKZ055-056-300515-
Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1151 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NOWATA
COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1150 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Delaware, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Delaware...
Lenapah...                        Wann...
New Alluwe...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 9543 3660 9543 3660 9551 3670 9589
      3693 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 272DEG 33KT 3675 9570

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

OKZ055>057-061-062-300545-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-Mayes OK-
1214 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN MAYES...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES
THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...

At 1213 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
east of Nowata, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Nowata...
Chelsea...                        Adair...
Delaware...                       Lenapah...
Big Cabin...                      New Alluwe...
Watova...                         White Oak...
Centralia...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 267 and 281.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9590 3689 9578 3679 9509 3642 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 287DEG 32KT 3672 9555

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
208 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

OKZ057-062-063-300745-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
208 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CRAIG...WEST
CENTRAL DELAWARE AND NORTHERN MAYES COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 208 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Adair, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pryor Creek...                    Salina...
Langley...                        Adair...
Spavinaw...                       Disney...
Big Cabin...                      Pensacola...
Hoot Owl...                       Cherokee State Park...
Spavinaw State Park...            Chloeta...
Strang...                         Snowdale State Park...
Disney Little Blue State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 260 and 275.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9491 3621 9507 3636 9544 3644 9543
      3651 9536 3651 9533 3654 9533 3656 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 291DEG 11KT 3643 9523

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH