Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - Storm complex overnight tonight into Monday morning will bring
   an elevated severe risk as well as a heavy rain threat that
   could lead to quickly developing flooding conditions.

 - Unsettled weather is expected to persist through much of the
   upcoming work week. There will be multiple opportunities for
   heavy rainfall and some severe weather.

 - Below average temperatures are forecast this upcoming work
   week, returning above average this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Surface observations and analysis show a frontal boundary on the
doorstep of the CWA, draped along the KS/OK border. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to organize and cluster both along the of
boundary and out ahead of it. Hi-res models have been consistent
in showing a potent MCS riding the cold front as it progresses
south and eastward. Strongest cores embedded in the MCS will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts 60 to 70 mph, small (and
occasionally large) hail, and perhaps a tornado or two if storms
are able to stay ahead of the frontal boundary. The overall severe
intensity and threat are expected to decrease some as the storms
push south of I-40 and into western AR overnight, but the severe
potential will not completely go away until the MCS pushes south
and east of the forecast area sometime mid Monday morning. Heavy
to very heavy rainfall will also be associated with these storms.
In general, most areas have the potential to receive 1 to 3
inches through midday Monday. Latest suite of hi-res models show
very impressive isolated rainfall amounts of around 5 to 6 inches
by noon. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 PM Monday for far
eastern OK and all of northwest AR. These higher- end amounts
seem reasonable given high PWATs, current/recent rainfall rates,
and consistency in hi-res models. However, there has been notable,
but slight south shift in QPF in the latest model data compared
to earlier runs. Regardless, areas in the Flood Watch have seen
and received a surplus of rainfall over the last couple of weeks,
so it will not take much for flooding and/or flash flooding to
occur.

There is still some uncertainty just how far south the cold front
advance before it stalls. Global models have been persistent
showing the frontal boundary stalling between I-40 and the Red
River by noon, while the 00z HRRR has the frontal boundary pushing
completely through the CWA at the same time. Will lean towards
the solution that the front will stall/oscillate just north of the
Red River in the afternoon and evening. Assuming this verifies,
the stalled frontal boundary may be the focus for late afternoon
or early evening thunderstorm development across southeast OK.
Another shortwave trough will eject off the Southern High Plains
early this evening and is anticipated to help form another MCS
that will push through portions of the CWA late tonight and into
Tuesday morning. Still numerous questions associated with this
next potential MCS with regards to timing, coverage, and
intensity. Current thinking is that locations south of I-40 would
be impacted the most if verified, having the best overall severe
and flooding potential through the remainder of the short-term
period.

Temperatures behind the front on Monday will warm into the low-
mid 80s, mainly for areas north of I-40. Meanwhile, near and south
of the front, temperatures will warm up into the mid-upper 80s to
near 90 degrees along the Red River. Overnight lows Monday night
will range from mid-upper 60s to lower 70s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The weather pattern remains very similar and unsettled through
midweek, with northwest/west-northwest flow aloft and multiple
embedded shortwave trough flowing through. The stalled frontal
boundary will gradually lift northward Tuesday evening, becoming
much less defined during the daytime Wednesday. Another shortwave
trough will eject off the Rockies late Tuesday evening, which may
generate and push another MCS through the region late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Both severe and flooding concerns will
increase late Tuesday night if this scenario verifies.

As mid/upper-level ridging begins to build into the area late in
the upcoming week, precipitation chances will gradually decrease
into next weekend. However, there will be at least low
precipitation chances each day through at least Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level ridging will have much more of an
influence, ending precipitation chance and increase temperatures
for the weekend.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A complex of storms will move rapidly southeast overnight
impacting all sites. Strong to severe wind gusts are likely at
most sites with the possible exception of KBVO. During the storms,
conditions will likely fall to IFR or lower, with MVFR conditions
likely once the storms pass, lasting well into Monday afternoon.
A return to VFR conditions is expected by late Monday afternoon at
all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  70  85  73 /  30  40  50  70
FSM   87  72  86  73 /  60  60  60  40
MLC   87  73  88  75 /  70  60  60  40
BVO   80  65  84  70 /  20  30  40  70
FYV   83  68  83  70 /  50  50  50  50
BYV   80  65  81  68 /  40  20  50  60
MKO   83  70  84  72 /  50  60  70  60
MIO   80  66  84  70 /  20  20  50  70
F10   84  70  85  72 /  60  60  60  50
HHW   88  73  88  75 /  80  60  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ057-058-062-063-068-
     069-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-129-219-220-229.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-221815-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...SEVERE POTENTIALS AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO MONDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM North of Interstate 40...After Midnight South
			of Interstate 40.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Through Early Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances continue across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon with a limited severe potential
for locally strong winds. Much of this activity should weaken with
the loss of daytime heating.

Thunderstorms become more likely late this afternoon into this
evening for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas ahead of a
cold front moving into the region. These storms are forecast to
develop into a storm complex and push through eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas tonight and Monday morning. Storms late
afternoon into early evening will have the potential for all
modes of severe weather including a tornado threat. Mid to late
evening, severe potentials transition to mainly a damaging wind
threat into the overnight hours tonight. The greater severe
potential is along and north of Interstate 40, with the greater
tornado potential along and north of Highway 412.

In addition to the severe risk, a heavy rain threat exists into
Monday as excessive amounts of moisture will be in place ahead of
the cold front. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to locally greater
than 3 inches are forecast through tonight, which could quickly
increase flash flood concerns and rises of streams and rivers.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy
			  		     Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
			Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas and remain possible through the day as
the cold front sags southward over the region. Additional storm
chances continue Monday night and Tuesday with the boundary
lifting back northward and a disturbance moving across the region.
Again, a limited severe potential and a heavy rain threat persist
through Tuesday. Storm chances remain forecast for the second half
of the week as well from another disturbance moving into the
region Wednesday and Thursday. Updated forecasts should be
monitored through the week for the specifics involving these
threats.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Preparations for a severe weather and heavy rain event should be
readied for tonight into Monday. Those with interests along creeks
and streams should prepare to act if warnings are issued as
flooding conditions could quickly develop.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
115 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

OKZ059-154-220700-
Western Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
115 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM CDT...

At 115 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles north of Newkirk to 3 miles southeast of
Ponca City to 2 miles east of Red Rock. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Sooner Lake...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9674 3666 9665 3637 9682 3641 9703
      3651 9703 3651 9701 3653 9698 3655 9690
      3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9705
      3660 9704 3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694
      3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 276DEG 23KT 3692 9705 3669 9701 3645 9714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH