Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms redevelop this evening into the overnight, mainly along
  and south of Interstate 70. A few elevated supercells are
  possible with hail around quarter size and gusty winds.

- Locally heavy rainfall is the greater concern across east-
  central Kansas, where storms may train over the same areas
  that saw the heaviest rain last night. Cant rule out
  localized flooding concerns.

- Heat builds this weekend with heat indices near 100-105
  degrees. Sunday and Monday look to be the hottest days, though
  confidence in the magnitude remains limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery and the 12Z upper air analysis keep
the area under broad quasi-zonal flow along the southern
periphery of the Westerlies and broad cyclonic flow regime
across the northern CONUS into Canada, meanwhile the western
CONUS anticyclone still anchored near the Four Corners. A
slow-moving, modified frontal zone remains draped from south
central Kansas into the Ozarks and continues to serve as the
focus for convection. Embedded perturbations rounding the base
of the broader cyclonic flow provide the only meaningful forcing
for ascent, keeping the setup marginal but not negligible.

Attention turns to the overnight period as the LLJ strengthens
generally after 03Z and isentropic ascent increases along its
nose. Forecast soundings across east-central Kansas show MUCAPE
near 2400 J/kg with CIN around 240, which points to elevated
storms the likely outcome with the surface layer remaining
capped. Hodograph structures tend to be somewhat elongated as
the LLJ ramps up which could become supportive of rotating
updrafts which may help storms persist allowing for at least
quarter size hail as the primary threat. Gusty winds remain
possible with the stronger cores but the elevated nature of the
storms should limit any widespread wind threat.

The greater concern tonight focuses on locally heavy rainfall
mainly across east-central Kansas. If the 850-300mb mean flow
remains around 15-20kts with the moisture axis overlapping the
area as the LLJ sets up then any training over the previously
saturated areas would likely raise the flooding risk quickly.
NBM guidance carries the highest QPF across some of the
east-central areas into the overnight period around midnight
into the early morning hours so these areas bear watching
through the overnight hours.

Any lingering light rain exits Friday afternoon as the mid-level
ridge expands eastward into the Central Plains. Temperatures
climb steadily on Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints holding in the low 70s pushing heat indices near 100
degrees Saturday and peaking Sunday into Monday around 105 each
day. Air temperatures reaching triple digits appear unlikely
based on current trends and datasets, so the heat index remains
the primary concern driven by the low level moisture return into
the region and local impacts from the microclimate set up by
agriculture production still in swing. Uncertainty in the warm
forecast comes in the form of the northeastern flank of the
ridge overall continuing to flatten with northwest flow
displaced just north of the area. Subtle shortwaves within that
corridor could produce enough ascent for either cloud cover to
be higher than forecast or overnight precipitation to inhibit
afternoon heating. The ensemble spreads through the weekend
remain wide enough that headlines are premature at publish time
for this forecast cycle. Ensembles favor the ridge flattening
further by midweek, with a surface front and embedded shortwaves
returning better precipitation chances to the area so overall
uncertainty in the long range forecast is relatively high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions are forecast with thunderstorms overnight being the
main aviation concern. Wasn't inclined to change much from the
previous issuance in terms of timing due to variation in placement
among the CAMs. Some guidance also shows potential for MVFR to IFR
cigs for a few hours between 06-12z, but this isn't consistent
between solutions and the better signal overall is well northeast of
terminals into MO and IA. After storms move out, winds veer to the
SSW and may briefly push up to around 10 kt during the mid to late
morning as the LLJ mixes down, and then should turn lighter for the
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
232 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
232 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A severe storm or two may be possible late this evening and
overnight across portions of east central Kansas. The strongest
storms may produce hail around quarter size, wind gusts around 60
MPH, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions setup across the area this weekend with
Sunday into Monday continuing to trend the hottest.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging wind, and
heavy rainfall over one inch to the National Weather Service in
Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1114 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KSZ035-070445-
Dickinson-
1114 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moonlight, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chapman, Enterprise, and Moonlight.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 279 and 289.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9696 3897 9696 3898 9695 3898 9693
      3888 9693 3887 9692 3889 9714 3913 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 276DEG 14KT 3897 9708

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1121 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

KSZ059-070445-
Anderson-
1121 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Colony, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colony, Kincaid, and Lone Elm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9535 3805 9509 3804 9508 3804 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 306DEG 19KT 3805 9535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Prieto