Snow Squall Warning 11, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
631 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic front will cross our area early this morning, then
weak high pressure will extend from the Ohio Valley to Delmarva
late today and linger into the weekend. An area of low pressure
tracks south of our region Saturday night into early Sunday.
High pressure builds in for Monday before shifting offshore into
Tuesday, then a cold front crosses our area during Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main snow squall is moving through southeast New Jersey and
southern Delaware, while some more snow showers are moving
through the Lehigh Valley and into the I-95 corridor. There was
a quick coating to maybe an inch or so of snowfall with the main
squall, as well as brief wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Snow
showers will linger through sunrise or so before tapering off.
Some additional minor snow accumulations will occur with the
snow showers.

Otherwise, surface low pressure over northern New York state and
northern Vermont will continue to track east, dragging a strong
cold front through the region as the morning progresses. The
front is currently through Central New York and most of eastern
Pennsylvania.

Cold front moves off the New Jersey and Delaware coasts shortly
after sunrise, and any snow tapers off. A strong pressure
gradient forms between low pressure over eastern Canada and high
pressure building into the central United States. Northwest
winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 35 mph gusts for
most of the day, then winds diminish shortly after sunset with
loss of diurnal heating and as the pressure gradient slackens.
Highs today will be cold, even for early January, topping off in
the upper 20s to low 30s, except for southeast New Jersey and
Delmarva, where highs will be in the mid to upper 30s.

An upper trough remains over the Northeast tonight and some more
shortwaves will pass through the region. While some flurries are
possible, not expecting much more than that. Winds remain elevated,
generally around 10 mph with some gusts to 15 mph or so. Those
winds, combined with cloudy skies will keep optimal radiational
cooling conditions from developing. That said, cold air advection
will be underway and lows tonight will be in the teens to low 20s.
Wind chills tonight will be in the single digits to low teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday is a dry day, although there will be some troughing to the
north into Friday which keeps some clouds around. There will be
ongoing snow showers to the north associated with the troughing and
some lake effect during this time frame as well, which may result in
some flurries reaching into the northwest portion of our area. This
activity looks limited at this time. Highs on Friday are mainly in
the 30s (20s in the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey).

An area of high pressure moves into the Midwest Friday night
and eastward into the weekend. This will allow for dry weather
Friday night and for most of Saturday. Friday night is mostly
clear to partly cloudy. Lows are in the mid teens to low 20s Friday
night. Clouds increase through the day Saturday from the south as an
area of low pressure develops across the southeast U.S. and travels
northeastward. Most of the day is dry Saturday with highs in the 30s
for many.

For the time period of Saturday night into early Sunday morning,
there will be an upper-level trough moving through the region along
with two pieces of upper-level energy with one to the south of the
area into Delmarva and one to the north of our area. Generally, the
guidance keeps the developing low well to our south. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield will depend not just on the track
of the surface low, but also dry air northward and if the trough
aloft sharpens up a bit more. The latter would involve the southern
energy phasing more with the northern energy, and therefore
something to watch. Given the continued uncertainty, made no changes
from the National Blend of Models (NBM) which paints slight chance
to low chance PoPS from about I-95 south and east. As of now, this
system looks to be a quick mover as it exits very early Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summary...Cold conditions, then some milder air starts to arrive
Wednesday.

Synoptic Overview...A sharpening upper-level trough pivots across
the East Sunday, then a shortwave embedded within the northwest flow
aloft crosses the Northeast later Monday into Tuesday and may
amplify the trough for a time. Another upper-level trough crosses
the Great Lakes region into adjacent Canada Wednesday. At the
surface, a cold front looks to cross our area late Tuesday or during
Wednesday.

For Sunday and Monday...As the axis of a sharpening upper-level
trough pivots across the East Sunday morning, surface low pressure
is forecast to track out to sea as it is centered well east of
Delmarva. This should result in dry but cold conditions. Surface
high pressure then slides across our area Monday but quickly shifts
offshore by Monday night. Some warm air advection ahead of a clipper
type system in the Great Lakes could produce some light snow late
Monday across mainly portions of our northern and western areas.
This feature looks weak and moisture starved therefore any snow that
would occur, as of now, looks to be rather light.

For Tuesday and Wednesday...Some mid level ridging arrives across
our area during Tuesday as the axis of high pressure slides across
our region. A trough in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will toss
a warm front our way, and with return flow become more established,
a milder air mass will start to arrive especially by Wednesday ahead
of a cold front. The amount of moisture with this front is
uncertain, especially given that the main energy may end up lifting
well to our north, thus leaving our region within an area of much
weaker forcing. Daytime temperatures especially on Wednesday are
forecast to top out several degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Lingering sub-VFR conditions, generally MVFR/IFR, in
SHSN and brief wind gusts as high as 35 to 40 kt. Otherwise,
VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Moderate
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. NSW. W winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night...Mainly VFR, however if a southern system shifts far
enough north then a period of sub-VFR conditions along with some
light snow will be possible.

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front moves across the waters later this morning. Some VSBY
restrictions are possible in snow showers with its passage, but any
snow showers will be brief and may also result in brief wind
gusts up to 40 kt.

Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts ahead of the
front will abruptly turn northwest behind the front later this
morning. There may be a few brief, sporadic gale force gusts, but do
not think they will be frequent enough nor widespread enough to
warrant a Gale Warning. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
through late this afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions tonight.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...Gorse/Guzzo
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS
MARINE...Gorse/MPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-021100-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
316 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MPS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
523 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 AM     Snow Squall      1 W Valley Twp          39.98N 75.87W
01/01/2026                   Chester            PA   ASOS

            Chester County Airport: 48 mph wind gust and
            visibility down to 1/4SM in snow.

&&

MPS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
536 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     Snow Squall      New Castle County Airpo 39.68N 75.61W
01/01/2026                   New Castle         DE   ASOS

            Snow squall. Wind gust of 48 mph. Visibility
            down to 1SM.

&&

MPS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
537 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     Snow Squall      Warminster              40.21N 75.10W
01/01/2026                   Bucks              PA   Trained Spotter

            Near whiteout conditions with the passage of
            a snow squall. All surfaces quickly covered
            by around one half inch of snow.

&&

Gorse

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
543 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     Snow Squall      Pocono Mountains Munici 41.14N 75.38W
01/01/2026                   Monroe             PA   ASOS

            43 mph wind gust and visibility down to
            1/2SM.

&&

MPS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
610 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 AM     Snow Squall      South Jersey Regional A 39.94N 74.85W
01/01/2026                   Burlington         NJ   ASOS

            Visibility rapidly dropped to as low as one
            quarter of a mile with a snow squall due to
            snow and blowing snow. Peak wind gust with
            the squall was 48 mph.

&&

Gorse

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
658 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     Snow             South River             40.45N 74.38W
01/01/2026  M0.4 Inch        Middlesex          NJ   Trained Spotter

&&

Gorse