Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

902 
WHUS71 KPHI 071743
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
143 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

ANZ450>452-071845-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-260707T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 NM-
143 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Seas have mostly lowered below 5 feet, allowing the Small Craft
Advisory to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
305 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lower chance for showers today. Increasing confidence of showers
and storms with the late week cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Relatively cool and cloudy conditions will prevail today, but
there remains a 20 to 50% chance for showers and storms.

2) The next chance for showers and storms will be Thursday
through Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses through
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Relatively cool and cloudy conditions will
prevail today, but there remains a 20 to 50% chance for showers
and storms.

The stationary front remains just south of our region. This
could continue to serve as a focus for showers and storm
development through the day today before it finally starts
making more significant progress southward tonight into
tomorrow. However, based on the early morning radar and
observation trends, I suspect that many models are having
trouble resolving the depth and persistence of the marine layer
over our region (as evidenced by the persistent and expansive
low cloud cover). Given the synoptic scale pattern and the
prevailing wind direction that most models are depicting through
the day, see little chance for the marine layer to erode.

Therefore, while several models show scattered showers and
storms across the region, suspect that most of the area will
stay dry, with only some drizzle or light stratiform rain at
most. The exception to this is southern Delaware and Talbot and
Caroline Counties in MD. The front will stay close to those
counties through the day, thus the proximity of convective
initiation makes it more likely for showers to persist in to
those areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next chance for showers and storms will be
Thursday through Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses
through the region.

The next cold front is expected to approach the region Thursday,
likely crossing through our region Friday into Saturday. A few
things set this apart from the multiple days of severe and flood
impacts that we just saw. First, after today there will be
limited opportunity for warm air and moisture advection before
the front arrives. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday
will be in the 80s - warmer than today, but a far cry from the
widespread triple digit temperatures that we had at the end of
last week. Dewpoints will be similarly slow to increase, though
dewpoints in the 70s are possible by Thursday.

The other difference is that this looks like a rather
progressive pattern. On Thursday, the mid and upper level flow
will be mostly zonal allowing a small short wave trough to slide
over the region. A long wave trough will dig southeast over the
region Friday into Saturday, likely allowing the cold front to
make progress further south from the region before stalling.

All that to say, while we can't rule out any thunderstorm
hazards (severe or flash flooding) at this point, the risk is
lower than what we just saw with the active period over the last
4 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Today...Thanks to a persistent marine layer, low stratus
is likely to prevail through the day. There might be some
improvement in the ceilings to the lower end of MVFR during the
day time thanks to a slightly deeper mixed layer during the day,
but a return to widespread VFR conditions is unlikely during
this TAF period. There is up to a 20 percent chance for showers
through the day, but unlikely to lower conditions from the
prevailing IFR or MVFR conditions. Northeast winds around 5-10
kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Low stratus is likely to persist for all or at least
most of the night. After 06Z, may see clouds start to erode
thanks to some drier air moving in, but confidence in the timing
of improvement is low as climatologically this is rare timing
for improving conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Once the clouds break up, prevailing VFR is
expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered
showers and storms could result in temporary restrictions to
MVFR or even IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory
Criteria.

There is a chance for fog development through the day today.
However, so far fog has been slow to develop, and where it has
developed, visibilities remain well above 1 mile.

Outlook...

No marine headlines are currently anticipated through the rest
of the week.

Rip Currents...

Through Wednesday...Winds remain east to southeast around 10
kt, with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Resulting NE wind
wave will return an elevated MODERATE Rip Current Risk along
much of the Jersey Shore Tuesday and Wednesday, with LOW risk
persisting over Cape May/Atlantic Counties and the Delaware
Beaches, where winds remain lighter and more SSE through
Wednesday afternoon.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
MARINE...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
349 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-070915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
349 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening could
result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.