Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

040 
WWUS51 KPHI 270712
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
312 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

MDC041-270745-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-260727T0745Z/
Talbot MD-
312 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM EDT
FOR CENTRAL TALBOT COUNTY...

At 312 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. Michaels,
or 10 miles west of Easton, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, 
         siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Easton, St. Michaels, and Oxford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 7625 3880 7622 3879 7622 3879 7619
      3883 7619 3873 7602 3864 7615 3868 7618
      3867 7620 3871 7624 3876 7622 3877 7624
      3876 7625 3875 7625 3871 7628 3872 7630
      3878 7629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 322DEG 3KT 3874 7625 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Hoeflich

299 
WWUS51 KPHI 270730
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

MDC041-270740-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-260727T0745Z/
Talbot MD-
330 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL TALBOT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3881 7625 3880 7622 3879 7622 3879 7619
      3883 7619 3873 7602 3864 7615 3868 7618
      3867 7620 3871 7624 3876 7622 3877 7624
      3876 7625 3875 7625 3871 7628 3872 7630
      3878 7629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 316DEG 3KT 3873 7624 

$$

Hoeflich

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
102 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

There is increasing potential for excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding early this week, particularly on Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and thunderstorms return and increase along with
increasingly more humid for the first half of the week. There is
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as well as areas
of heavy rain leading to flash flooding on both Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return and increase
along with increasingly more humid for the first half of the
week. There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as
well as areas of heavy rain leading to flash flooding on
both Monday and Tuesday.

As a strong upper-level ridge expands into the Plains early
this week, northwesterly flow aloft will occur across much of
the East. This ridge gets pushed back some as a strong upper-
level trough in eastern Canada sends spokes of energy
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Some
guidance maintains a vigorous shortwave riding over the ridge
and sliding southeastward across the Great Lakes Monday and then
across the Northeast during Tuesday. This results in some model
solutions continuing to close off the trough across the
Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Some other guidance is slower
and weaker and thus does not close it off or briefly closes it
off a day or two later. The upper-level system will drive
surface low pressure and a cold front our way Tuesday into
Wednesday. It will become much more humid during the first half
of next week, with dew points looking to surge on Tuesday.

This will all result in an increase in convective chances
Monday and especially Tuesday into Wednesday. While there
remains some differences among the model guidance on the timing
and strength of the features diving southeastward early next
week, the setup would continue to favor upstream convective
development given northwesterly flow aloft.

Monday's setup looks to be a pulsy, single to multi cell
cluster environment with low shear and modest instability. Deep
layer shear will be weak, only around 10-20 kts. Instability
looks to be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. DCAPE is also modest
around 500-1000 J/kg. This setup will favor scattered, hit or
miss type showers and thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon hours, with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
Any stronger storms could produce isolated strong to marginally
severe wind gusts and brief heavy downpours. Our entire area is
outlooked in a MARGINAL Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
thunderstorms on Monday. There is also a MARGINAL Risk (level 1
out of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding for
areas near and northwest of I-95 on Monday. Scattered showers
and storms may continue overnight as better forcing arrives
aloft, though the severe and flash flooding threat will likely
be minimal overnight.

Tuesday looks to feature the most widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Height falls and jet dynamics aloft will favor
convective development nearly all day as surface low pressure
develops just to our west. This will keep a steady stream of
warm, moist air pumping into the area and keeping the
environment conditionally unstable despite cloud cover. PWats
will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest
we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across
the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which
could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy
rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger
concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.

Long story short, a very active day is expected convection
wise on Tuesday. A due southerly surface flow and the dynamics
aloft will favor areas along and northwest of the I-95 corridor
and/or the frontal boundary to be the focus of the heaviest
rain, and areas along and southeast of the I-95 corridor and/or
the frontal boundary where convection is less messy and the
environment a bit less contaminated being the greater severe
thunderstorm threat depending on exactly how the convection
evolves. That still remains a little unclear at the moment, and
may depend on how storms evolve upstream Monday and Monday
night.

WPC has outlooked most of our area outside of central/southern
Delmarva in a SLIGHT Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall for Tuesday. SPC has outlooked the southern half of our
area from the Philly metro and south in a SLIGHT Risk (level 2
out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, low pressure looks to be offshore to our east.
Scattered showers and storms will likely develop again by
afternoon, at least across our NJ and PA zones, but the severe
thunderstorm and heavy rain threat look to be lower and focused
across southern New England given the setup. We'll continue to
monitor this period though.

As we head through Thursday and Friday, the risk of scattered
showers and storms will slowly decline as the Tuesday-Wednesday
system slowly pushes east. Details on the late week period are
still very uncertain, however. We may briefly dry out completely
Saturday before the next system approaches Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight (through 12z)...Primarily VFR. Some patchy fog
over the Lehigh Valley could result in some MVFR VSBYs though
only put a TEMPO group in at KRDG. Winds generally light out of
the south/southwest around 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Today...Primarily VFR though scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop during the early afternoon, mainly focused from the I-95
corridor and points east. Converted the PROB30 to TEMPO groups
for the I-95 and South Jersey terminals. The main window will be
from 16z-17z to about 22z-23z, with lingering showers after.
Lesser chances for showers/thunderstorms for the Lehigh Valley
terminals, so kept the PROB30 for now at KRDG/KABE. Winds out of
the south/southwest around 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Monday Night...Primarily VFR. Cannot rule out some patchy fog at
all terminals (10-15%) but confidence was not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Light southerly winds 5 kt or
less. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kts possible.

Wednesday thru Friday...Prevailing VFR, but isolated to
scattered showers and storms could cause brief restrictions, with
a decreasing probability of this each day.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Monday. Winds out of the
east this evening turn southerly tonight, remaining around 10
kts or less. Southerly winds increase to 10-15 kts on Monday.
Seas of 2-3 feet throughout the period. A few scattered
thunderstorms possible near the coast Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible as southerly
flow increases. Showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday thru Friday...No prevailing marine hazards expected,
however scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the
coast, especially Wednesday

Rip Currents...

For Monday, south winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves of 1-2
feet along most of the coast, though they could approach 3 feet
for southern parts of the Jersey Shore. There will be multiple
swell groups, but all of them look to be fairly light and short
in period. Given the more shore-parallel flow and light swell,
we'll continue with the LOW risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents at all area beaches.

On Tuesday, we'll see an overall increase in winds and seas as a
storm approaches. In addition, we will also be a day closer to
the full moon. These factors point to more enhanced conditions
compared to Monday. With this in mind, we will issue a MODERATE
risk for Tuesday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...AKL/Cooper/Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...AKL/OHara/RCM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
513 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-270915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
513 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible on
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Staarmann