Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

288 
WWUS51 KPHI 040141
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
941 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

NJC001-005-007-015-040151-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-260704T0215Z/
Atlantic NJ-Camden NJ-Gloucester NJ-Burlington NJ-
941 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN
CAMDEN...EASTERN GLOUCESTER AND SOUTH CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
southern New Jersey.

LAT...LON 3968 7518 3983 7506 3959 7449 3936 7468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 303DEG 26KT 3967 7495 

$$

MPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
851 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #448 is now in effect for the southern
Poconos, Lehigh and Delaware Valleys including Philadelphia,
and all but extreme southeast New Jersey until 11 pm.

Confidence has increased in potential flash flooding impacts
across portions of the area on Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, the
forecast remains in track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the region
through Saturday. All time record high temperatures could be
challenged again today with widespread triple digit
temperatures.

2. Daily chances for showers and storms will begin across the
area today and continue into early next week. Some severe storms
are possible each day through Sunday. There is a risk of flash
flooding Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity will continue
across the region through Saturday. Several record high temperature
records were set or tied across the area on Friday. More records
are possible Saturday, especially across Delmarva and south NJ.

Strong mid-level ridging across the Mississippi Valley, Great
Lakes, and Ohio Valleys has built eastward into the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic and will persist into the holiday weekend. The
flow is west to northwest today. The ridge will finally start to
break and retreat some starting Saturday, and especially into
Sunday.

Temperatures will begin to abate somewhat on Saturday as the ridge
begins to break and retreat to the southwest. However, high temperatures
will still be in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, hottest along
and southeast of I-95. Another day of west to northwest flow of
similar magnitude should once again support the immediate coastline
warming up considerably before the sea breeze develops. Elsewhere,
a gradually weakening ridge aloft will result in the slightly
cooler temperatures. Dewpoints should mix out again into the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees by afternoon, which results in
100-108 degree heat indices.

Notably cooler temperatures are expected across the region on
Sunday, with high temperatures generally in the upper 80s across
most of eastern PA and NJ, and low 90s for the urban corridor
as well as Delmarva. With that said, dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to low 70s, with heat indices getting into the mid
90s to low 100s from the Philly metro and south. By Monday,
with a frontal boundary draped across the area, much cooler
temperatures are expected. Placement of the front is uncertain,
but north of the front temperatures will likely only be in the
mid 70s, and low to mid 80s to the south. South of the front
where temperatures are still fairly warm, the forecast remains
complicated by the potential for widespread showers and storms.

Significant impacts will continue from the 3 to 4 day excessive
heat and humidity, with heat indices reaching into the 100-110
degree range each day. The Extreme Heat Warning for our entire
forecast area (excluding the New Jersey barrier islands) remains
in effect through 8 PM Saturday. The hottest conditions are
forecast to occur through today south of I-78. While heat
indices may fall just shy of warning criteria by Saturday,
impacts will likely be worsened by the multiple days of heat and
busy outdoor holiday festivities.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Daily chances for showers and storms will begin
across the area today and continue into early next week. Some
severe storms are possible each day through Sunday. There is a
risk of flash flooding Sunday and Monday.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #448 is now in effect for the southern
Poconos, Lehigh and Delaware Valleys including Philadelphia,
and all but extreme southeast New Jersey until 11 pm.

The mid-level ridge looks to break down and retrograde back to
the south and west starting later today, and this will allow a
mid- level trough to dig southeastward into New England. With
several shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge and into the
local area, this will support increasing coverage of afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms starting late this
afternoon, but especially on Saturday and Sunday as a cold front
enters the region and then likely stalls. Currently, PoPs are
around 20-30% this afternoon and evening and generally 30-60% on
Saturday. Activity becomes more widespread on Sunday and
Monday, with PoPs around 60- 90% for most of the area.

SPC has highlighted portions of our area in a Slight Risk (level
2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms the rest of today, Saturday
and Sunday. As indicated by the PoP forecast above, coverage of
storms is anticipated to be relatively low today, mainly isolated
to scattered in nature at best. Coverage and organization of storms
should be a bit greater on Saturday though. Damaging winds will
be the main threat with any thunderstorm development.

While there is still some uncertainty in the details of the thunderstorm
activity Friday and Saturday, it is important to point out that any
holiday weekend festivities could be impacted by thunderstorms (in
addition to the extreme heat).

On Sunday, the severe weather threat is expected to become
confined to mainly the Philly metro and points south, but this
will be dependent on frontal placement. However, widespread
showers and storms are also expected north of the front. The
severe weather threat looks low on Monday, but additional rounds
of showers and storms appear likely through Monday night.

Concern has grown this afternoon that a threat for flash
flooding could evolve Sunday into Monday, given a slow moving or
stationary frontal boundary draped across the area, and tall,
skinny CAPE profiles with deep moisture. In fact, model guidance
is indicating PWATs potentially exceeding 2 inches, which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year and near the
daily observed maximum. Given these factors, rainfall rates in
storms could exceed 1 to 2 inches per hour. As of now, the WPC
has placed a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for the I-95 corridor and
points west both Sunday and Monday, with a Marginal Risk (1 of
4) for the remainder of the area.

The front is expected to finally clear the area Tuesday, with
high pressure at least briefly building back into the region.
However, daily chances for isolated, primarily diurnally driven
convection, could continue through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening...VFR. Generally westerly winds around 10 kts with
some gusts up near 20 kts. Very low risk of isolated
thunderstorms after 21Z (about 20-30% chance), but for now kept
it as just VCTS. High confidence overall.

Overnight...VFR. West winds near 5 kts. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR overall. Risk of scattered showers/t-storms after
18Z (about 30-50% chance). Winds generally westerly increasing
to 10 kts with some afternoon gusts up to 20 kts. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Scattered showers and storms will be possible,
especially during the evening showers. Sub-VFR conditions are
likely with any heavier showers or storms.

Sunday through Monday night...Scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions expected at times.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible, especially in the
afternoon hours each day, which could lead to brief periods of
sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Saturday. South to southwest
winds 10-15 kts. Seas 1-3 feet. 10-20% chance of a
thunderstorm tonight, 20-40% Saturday afternoon, otherwise fair
weather and hazy.

Outlook...

No marine headlines are currently anticipated through Wednesday
with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. Showers and
storms are possible each day, with activity being the most
widespread Sunday through Monday night. Visibility restrictions
and strong winds are possible with the strongest storms.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, winds will be from the west to southwest at 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves
will be around 1 to 2 feet. There will be a weak southeast
swell with a period around 8 seconds. This results in a LOW risk
for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip
currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.

For Sunday, winds will be from the east around 10 mph with
gusts up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be
around 1 foot or less. There will be a weak southeast swell
with a period around 8 seconds. This results in a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents
at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record breaking heat is forecast through Saturday. On Thursday,
July 2nd, daily records were tied or broken at the Atlantic
City Airport, Mount Pocono, Philadelphia, Reading, Trenton,
Wilmington, and Georgetown. Temperature records for our climate
sites are listed below:

All Time Record High Temperatures

Site                  Record / Date
Allentown (ABE)          105 / July 3, 1966
AC Airport (ACY)         106 / June 28, 1969
AC Marina (55N)          104 / August 7, 1918
Georgetown (GED)         104 / July 22 & 23, 2011
Mount Pocono (MPO)       103 / July 3, 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)       106 / August 7, 1918
Reading (RDG)            106 / July 22, 2011
Trenton (TTN)            106 / July 9, 1936 & July 22, 2011
Wilmington (ILG)         107 / August 7, 1918

All Time Record Warmest Low Temperatures

Site                  Record / Date
Allentown (ABE)           79 / July 15, 1995
AC Airport (ACY)          84 / July 23, 2011
AC Marina (55N)           82 / July 21, 2019
Georgetown (GED)          84 / July 23, 2011
Mount Pocono (MPO)        76 / July 12, 1952
Philadelphia (PHL)        83 / July 24, 2010 & July 23, 2011
Reading (RDG)             81 / August 7, 1918
Trenton (TTN)             84 / August 11, 1895
Wilmington (ILG)          84 / August 7, 1918

Record Number of Consecutive 100+ Degree Days

Site                  Record / Date
Allentown (ABE)       3 days / July 9-11, 1936 & July 2-4, 1966
AC Airport (ACY)      3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 22-24, 2011
AC Marina (55N)        1 day / Occurred multiple times
Georgetown (GED)      2 days / Most recent June 24-25, 2025
Mount Pocono (MPO)     1 day / July 3, 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)    3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 8-10, 1993
Reading (RDG)         3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011
Trenton (TTN)         3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011
Wilmington (ILG)      3 days / Most recent July 9-11, 1936

Record High Temperatures
                          July 3
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)          105 / 1966
AC Airport (ACY)         104 / 1966
AC Marina (55N)           99 / 1919
Georgetown (GED)         101 / 1954
Mount Pocono (MPO)       103 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)       104 / 1966
Reading (RDG)            103 / 1898 & 1966
Trenton (TTN)            102 / 1966
Wilmington (ILG)         102 / 1966

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          July 3
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)           75 / 2018
AC Airport (ACY)          78 / 2018
AC Marina (55N)           76 / 1983, 2002, & 2018
Georgetown (GED)          79 / 1953
Mount Pocono (MPO)        69 / 2013
Philadelphia (PHL)        77 / 1876, 1901, &2002
Reading (RDG)             76 / 2018
Trenton (TTN)             76 / 1901 & 1966
Wilmington (ILG)          76 / 2002

Record High Temperatures
                          July 4
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)          102 / 1949
AC Airport (ACY)         102 / 1966
AC Marina (55N)           99 / 1966
Georgetown (GED)         100 / 1966
Mount Pocono (MPO)        99 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)       103 / 1966
Reading (RDG)            100 / 1911 & 1966
Trenton (TTN)             99 / 1919, 1999, & 2010
Wilmington (ILG)         102 / 1966

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          July 4
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)           75 / 1999
AC Airport (ACY)          75 / 1974, 1983, 1999, & 2002
AC Marina (55N)           79 / 2002
Georgetown (GED)          75 / 1999 & 2012
Mount Pocono (MPO)        70 / 2002 & 2013
Philadelphia (PHL)        79 / 1919
Reading (RDG)             78 / 1966
Trenton (TTN)             78 / 1966
Wilmington (ILG)          76 / 1999

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ001-
     007>010-012>023-027.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ024>026.
DE...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for DEZ001>004.
MD...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...Cooper/RCM
MARINE...Cooper/MJL/MPS/RCM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
506 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-040915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
506 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

In addition to the extreme heat, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible after late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

In addition to the extreme heat, scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Staarmann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
913 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 ENE Barnegat Light    39.76N 74.09W
07/03/2026  M54 MPH          ANZ451             NJ   Mesonet

            Barnegat Inlet Light mesonet.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
918 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Alburtis                40.51N 75.60W
07/03/2026                   Lehigh             PA   911 Call Center

            Downed trees into houses. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

AKL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
922 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 S Island Beach State  39.84N 74.08W
07/03/2026  M55 MPH          ANZ451             NJ   Mesonet

            IBSP mesonet.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Pittstown               40.59N 74.95W
07/03/2026                   Hunterdon          NJ   Trained Spotter

            Pictures sent in of several large trees down
            around Pittstown. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Wrightstown         40.06N 74.62W
07/03/2026                   Burlington         NJ   Emergency Mngr

            Several wires down around New Hanover. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
925 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 SSE Bay Side          39.65N 74.21W
07/03/2026  M46 MPH          ANZ451             NJ   Mesonet

            LBI Island Surf mesonet.

&&

Hoeflich