Frost Advisory 6, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

837 
WWUS71 KPHI 120747
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
347 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

PAZ054-055-121200-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-260512T1200Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
347 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 30 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive 
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

PO

052 
WWUS71 KPHI 121144
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
744 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

PAZ054-055-121245-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-260512T1200Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
744 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures continue to rise. The threat for frost has ended.

$$

MPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1017 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extent of showers brought further north through this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers will continue across southern parts of the
area through much of this afternoon.

2. Showers, possibly some thunderstorms, Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night, then much warmer air arriving over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers will continue across southern
parts of the area through much of this afternoon.

Latest KDOX radar returns showing light rain as far north as
Philadelphia and to the north and east towards Monmouth county.
METARs are only indicating light rain, as dew point depressions
are upwards of 20 degrees, so most of this is virga and is
dissipating before reaching the ground. Heavier showers are
across southern portions of Delmarva, where dew point
depressions are lower and visibilities are as low as 3SM.
Rainfall will otherwise be mostly light.

As of this morning, an upper-level low is centered over
portions of Ontario and Quebec, with cyclonically curved flow
continuing to overspread the region. At the surface, a cold
front has moved offshore, and will continue moving southeast
away from the region through today and into tonight.

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be cooler
today, only rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most. It
will be cool tonight, with lows generally in the low-mid 40s.
Across the higher elevations of the Poconos, temperatures are
expected to fall into the mid-upper 30s. Some patchy frost can't
be ruled out across these areas, but winds may remain elevated
enough to prevent this from being much of a concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers, possibly some thunderstorms, Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, then much warmer air arriving over
the weekend.

The upper-level pattern is forecast to become rather amplified
through this week. A strong upper-level trough axis shifts to our
east Tuesday as high pressure will also be shifting offshore.
Another upper-level trough then arrives into the East Wednesday into
Thursday before lifting out Friday into Saturday. The ECMWF in
particular continues to close this trough off across the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast by later Wednesday into Thursday. Other
guidance continues with the idea that the trough sharpens but
remains open as it crosses our region. Regardless of how this
transpires, a round of showers is probable Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night as a trough and cold front arrives.

As the aforementioned upper-level trough moves into the region
Wednesday, low-level warm air advection will increase ahead of it as
the low to mid level flow also increases. This will result in an
increase in forcing for ascent, and some instability should develop
ahead of the main forcing. A warm front should also lift across our
area Wednesday with some ascent associated with it. As a result,
showers should increase Wednesday from west to east, especially in
the afternoon with these peaking Wednesday night as the cold front
arrives. The amount of destabilization is more uncertain, however
guidance does show some instability which should be enough to
support at least a few thunderstorms. The intensity of any
thunderstorms however will depend on the magnitude of the
instability and shear. If some convection is able to become stronger
then locally gusty winds will be possible.

The main forcing should shift to our east and northeast Thursday
with the bulk of the showers ending. However, if the closed low
scenario ends up happening, then the core of the cold air aloft with
this slides overhead and this could result in additional shower
development during Thursday and possibly into Friday before the
system departs our region. As the trough lifts out and more of a
ridge starts to arrive this weekend, a drier and much warmer air
mass will overspread our area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Primarily VFR. A few light showers could lead to brief
visibility restrictions for MIV and ACY through 18-20Z before
any showers move offshore. Winds generally north-northwest at
5-10 kt, though they may become southeasterly for a time this
afternoon at MIV and ACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds generally northwest at 5 kt or less. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR conditions lower to MVFR or IFR later in the
afternoon and at night along with showers. A few thunderstorms
possible later in the afternoon and evening. Southerly wind gusts up
to 25 knots possible during the afternoon.

Thursday...Times of sub-VFR conditions and some showers possible.

Friday...Mostly VFR. A few showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are currently in effect. North winds early this
morning will generally be 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. A short
window of gusts near 25 kt is possible, but confidence is not high
enough to warrant Small Craft Advisory issuance. Winds will decrease
further this afternoon. Another uptick in winds is possible tonight,
but still below SCA criteria. Seas 2-4 feet this morning, decreasing
to 1-3 feet this afternoon through tonight. Scattered showers will
be possible for the southern NJ and DE coastal waters through this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable.

Thursday and Friday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Gorse/MPS
AVIATION...Cooper/Gorse
MARINE...Cooper/Gorse

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
505 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-120915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
505 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.