Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2026
Wind Advisory 2, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this wind advisory at Mar 15, 2026, 2:26 PM EDT for 4 counties in Connecticut; 5 counties in New Jersey; 11 counties in New York. It took effect at Mar 16, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 18 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 15, 2026, 2:26 PM EDT (18:26 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 16, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 17, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 18 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1711 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -72 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 133 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
036 WWUS71 KOKX 151826 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 226 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-161000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.260316T1800Z-260317T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 226 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Isolated gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 2 PM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc DR
7 follow-up statements
655 WWUS71 KOKX 160625 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 225 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-162030- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.260316T1800Z-260317T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 225 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeastern New Jersey, and southeastern New York. * WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc MET
057 WWUS71 KOKX 161232 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 832 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-162045- /O.NEW.KOKX.FG.Y.0006.260316T1232Z-260316T1500Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.260316T1800Z-260317T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 832 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility less than one mile in dense fog. For the Wind Advisory, south winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 11 AM EDT this morning. For the Wind Advisory, from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$ NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-161500- /O.NEW.KOKX.FG.Y.0006.260316T1232Z-260316T1500Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 832 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Visibility less than one mile in dense fog. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union Counties. In New York, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
808 WWUS71 KOKX 161459 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1059 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-162300- /O.EXP.KOKX.FG.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-260316T1500Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.260316T1800Z-260317T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1059 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-161600- /O.EXP.KOKX.FG.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-260316T1500Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 1059 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... Visibilities across the area have generally improved to greater than one quarter of a mile, therefore the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. There are still some isolated areas where visibilities fall to a quarter mile and motorists should exercise caution. $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
523 WWUS71 KOKX 161735 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 135 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-170800- /O.EXA.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.260316T1800Z-260317T0800Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 135 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union Counties. In New York, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Locally damaging wind gusts possible with any thunderstorm activity this evening into tonight. This activity will be addressed by Special Weather Statements or Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as needed. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-170800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.260316T1800Z-260317T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 135 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Locally damaging wind gusts possible with any thunderstorm activity this evening into tonight. This activity will be addressed by Special Weather Statements or Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as needed. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc
148 WWUS71 KOKX 162038 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 438 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 CTZ009>012-NYZ071-073-075-078>081-176>179-170800- /O.NEW.KOKX.FG.Y.0007.260316T2038Z-260317T0500Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Southern Westchester-Bronx-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 438 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, south winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, shifting west late tonight. Isolated gusts to 60 mph possible. For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 1 AM EDT Tuesday. For the Wind Advisory, until 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Scattered tree limbs, as well as isolated trees and powerlines could be blown down. Power outages possible. Locally damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible with any stronger thunderstorm activity this evening into tonight. This activity will be addressed by Special Weather Statements or Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as needed. Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. && $$ CTZ005>008-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ072-074-170800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Island)- 438 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, shifting west late tonight. Isolated gusts to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London Counties. In New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union, and Hudson Counties. In New York, New York (Manhattan) and Richmond (Staten Island) Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Scattered tree limbs, as well as isolated trees and powerlines could be blown down. Power outages possible. Locally damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible with any stronger thunderstorm activity this evening into tonight. This activity will be addressed by Special Weather Statements or Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as needed. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-170800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 438 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, shifting west late tonight. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union Counties. In New York, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Scattered tree limbs, as well as isolated trees and powerlines could be blown down. Power outages possible. Locally damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible with any stronger thunderstorm activity this evening into tonight. This activity will be addressed by Special Weather Statements or Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as needed. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc NV
636 WWUS71 KOKX 170643 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 243 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-170800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 243 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph by daybreak. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. A few additional tree limbs could be blown down. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-170800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T0800Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 243 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, decreasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph by daybreak. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union Counties. In New York, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. A few additional tree limbs could be blown down. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc NV
597 WWUS71 KOKX 170734 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 334 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-171200- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T1200Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex- Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 334 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Wind gusts will gradually subside to 35 mph through the morning. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. A few additional tree limbs could be blown down. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-171200- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T1200Z/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 334 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Wind gusts will gradually subside to 35 mph through the morning. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union Counties. In New York, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. A few additional tree limbs could be blown down. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc NV
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Mar 15, 1:35 PM EDT, 51 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Lighter winds and mainly dry conditions through this evening. 2) A frontal system brings periods of showers, with potentially strong and gusty winds late tonight through Monday night. Marginal risk for flooding and severe thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. 3) Localized minor coastal flooding and localized beach erosion possible Monday into Monday night. 4) Possible brief mix with snow very early Tuesday with otherwise a drier and colder airmass settling into the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 1:35 PM EDT, 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
135 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lighter winds and mainly dry conditions through this evening.
2) A frontal system brings periods of showers, with potentially
strong and gusty winds late tonight through Monday night.
Marginal risk for flooding and severe thunderstorms Monday into
Monday night.
3) Localized minor coastal flooding and localized beach erosion
possible Monday into Monday night.
4) Possible brief mix with snow very early Tuesday with
otherwise a drier and colder airmass settling into the area
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure continues exiting out into the Atlantic. Dry low
levels keep the region dry today. SE winds and increasing
clouds will keep the temperatures on the cooler side today with
highs mainly in the 40s to near 50.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Main time of concern is Monday afternoon through Monday evening.
There will be chances for heavy rainfall especially with any
thunderstorms.
Potential for strong winds also but low level inversion will be a
main limiting factor. NAM low level jet near 2-3 kft AGL still shows
near 85-90 kts while GFS has the low level jet relatively lower at
70-75 kts. Only expecting gusts to achieve about half of this low
level jet. So gusts forecast are in the range of 45 to 55 mph
mostly, meeting the threshold of wind advisory. Probability of wind
gusts greater than 55 mph only exhibits a small chance of near 10 to
20 percent for most of the coastline with higher probabilities
staying mainly south of Long Island. This is lower than seen in
forecasts from the previous early morning. Therefore confidence and
probabilities of reaching high wind criteria (i.e. 58 mph or higher
wind gusts) have lowered and are no longer mentioned in the HWO. A
gust to 58 mph or higher is still possible but chances at most would
only be 20 percent.
There is a marginal risk of flooding. This risk has not increased
over the last several forecasts. Storm total rainfall has
consistently stayed in the range of 1 to 2 inches for much of the
region. Heavy rain is from the deep trough structure of the
atmosphere and large vertical column of southerly flow. Precipitable
waters as a result get to near 1.5 inches Monday afternoon and this
will be above max climatology values for this time of year according
to local sounding climatology. The flow orientation from low to
upper levels is nearly parallel so this leads to training of cells
which is when multiple areas of showers and thunderstorms can move
across the same area. The main flooding impacts will be low-lying,
urban and other poor drainage flooding with overall minor impacts
considering the total rainfall amounts and just the overall
translational speed of these showers and thunderstorms which is
going to be fast moving.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with a slight risk
for some of the most western locations within the forecast
region. Severe thunderstorms are more probable farther to the
south and west, outside of the local forecast region. The
primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, which even though
probabilities have lowered for these higher wind gusts within
the overall flow, they are still going to be possible with some
intense thunderstorms or portions of a squall line that could
intensify especially for more western parts of the region.
Looking at the instability, more low level instability will be
seen across these western locations where forecast temperatures
are higher. Farther east, temperatures will be cooler and
instability will not be as high, leading to less favorable
factors for thunderstorm strengthening. There will also be the
low level jet which will be a source for downbursts of wind that
could bring a fraction of this jet down to the surface. Strong
downward motion like that in a thunderstorm can help bring down
these higher wind gusts via momentum transfer in spite of there
being a low level inversion.
A developing warm front approaches tonight and moves across into
early Monday. SE winds increase tonight and will make for slowly
rising temperatures tonight. With the low level warm air
advection will come more rain showers.
The rain showers will become more periodic and intermittent
Monday. It does not appear to be a total washout kind of rain
forecast. There will be some lulls in the rainfall. With the
warm air advection and rises in dewpoints, have also added in
fog into the forecast, with most areas along the southern
coastlines of Long Island for Monday morning. Winds will
continue to increase and become more gusty, especially Monday
afternoon. The area gets into the warm sector Monday afternoon.
Instability elevated will increase and make for a chance of
thunderstorms.
For Monday night, an associated strong cold front approaches and
moves across. Instability and more vertical forcing will make
for a continued chance of thunderstorms. Rain showers will
become more numerous and heavy in intensity as the front moves
within closer proximity. Peak gusts forecast during the evening
hours, potentially in and around a line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms forecast to move across from west to east.
Late Monday night, winds become more westerly behind the cold
front. Colder air will advection in. It is possible that
precipitation could end as a rain and snow mix with some areas
north and west of NYC potentially briefing going to all snow
before all precipitation tapers off.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Localized minor coastal flooding and localized beach erosion remain
possible with this system given the expected magnitude of southerly
flow and associated wave action. Astronomical tides will be rising
early next week due to the approaching new moon. Tides are low, so
it will take a significant surge to achieve widespread minor coastal
flooding, which is not expected at this time as guidance has
remained nearly steady to slightly lower over the last 24 hours. And
surge remains at around 1/2 to 1 foot. The main concern for any
localized minor coastal flooding continues to be with the most
vulnerable locations of the south shore back Bays of Nassau, and
western Great South Bay during times of high tide Monday and Monday
night.
.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Colder airmass settles into the region with trough moving
across Tuesday before shifting farther north on Wednesday. High
pressure starts to build in Tuesday and moves directly overhead
on Wednesday.
The forecast highs only reach near 40s and apparent temperatures
stay in the 30s for their max values. Breezy conditions Tuesday
will subside partially Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***High Impact Aviation Weather Event Late Tonight Through
Monday Night***
A strong frontal system impacts the terminals tonight through
Monday night.
VFR through 00z. MVFR conditions will begin developing tonight,
generally 03-06z, along with a chance of rain. Conditions will
then quickly lower to IFR 06-09z with showers. LIFR conditions
should then develop through the morning and will likely
continue through Monday evening. VLIFR conditions are also
possible near the coast with a chance of 1/4SM visibilities,
especially in the afternoon/evening.
Periods of showers are expected on Monday with locally heavy
downpours possible at times. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible 06-14z. The probability of a thunderstorm increases in
the afternoon and evening and having included TSRA in a PROB30
for the NYC metro terminals and KSWF (30 hour TAF sites) after
18z Monday.
E-SE winds 10-13 kt this afternoon with occasional gusts up to
20 kt. ESE-SE winds gradually increase overnight into Monday
morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, strongest near
the coast, after 12z. The flow will veer to the S into the
afternoon with winds increasing further, becoming 15-20 kt with
gusts 25-35 kt. The strongest winds will likely end up at
coastal terminals. A few gusts up to 40 kt possible after 21z
close to the coast.
LLWS with winds at 2kft 50-60 kt late tonight through Monday.
The strongest LLWS appears likely Monday afternoon and evening
when winds at 2kft may be 65-70 kt, especially at coastal
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional this afternoon.
Amendments likely for timing of lowering ceilings, visibilities,
and showers tonight into Monday morning.
Isolated thunderstorms possible after 06z. Adjustments possible
to timing of PROB30 for TSRA after 18z Monday.
1/4SM fog possible on Monday, especially in the afternoon and
evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Afternoon-Night: IFR to LIFR with showers, possibly
heavy at times. Thunderstorms also possible. S winds 15-25 kt
with gusts 25-40 kt, highest at the coast. Peak gusts up to 45
kt possible along the coast in the evening. LLWS. Winds
decrease slightly and become more westerly late Monday night,
gusts 25-35 kt. Showers taper off overnight with improving
conditions.
Tuesday: Becoming VFR. W gusts 25 to 30 kt.
Wednesday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions remain below Advisory criteria today. Winds increase
late this evening with SCA conditions likely overnight on all
waters as gusts increase above 25 kt. SCA starts on ocean waters
6pm this evening, with non ocean waters at midnight.
Gales looking more probable Monday into Monday night. Storm
force winds also possible for some time Monday night. A gale
watch remains in effect for all waters from 6AM Monday until 6AM
Tuesday. While some storm force winds are possible, not enough
areal extent and overall probability of them to issue a watch.
The storm force winds might just be with a squall line of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night.
The inversion developing tonight into Monday will be a limiting
factor for how much winds get mixed down to the surface.
SCA conditions on most waters Tuesday and then just the ocean
through midweek.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
DISCUSSION...JM/DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMHazardous weather outlook, Mar 15, 3:43 AM EDT, 10 hours 43 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 343 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-160745- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 343 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-160745- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 343 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2:22 PM EDT | Flood Watch | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 36 hr |
| Mar 15, 2:03 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | OKX | 108 min | |
| Mar 15, 3:51 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | OKX | 26 hr | |
| Mar 15, 2:29 PM EDT | Gale Warning | OKX | 45 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in New York, 2026Wind Advisories in New Jersey, 2026Wind Advisories in Connecticut, 2026Every wind advisory in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.