Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 4, 2026Todd County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 4, 2026, 3:47 PM CDT for Todd County, Minnesota. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2026, 3:47 PM CDT (20:47 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2026, 4:30 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Todd County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 944 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 925 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

553 
WUUS53 KMPX 042047
SVRMPX
MNC153-042130-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0142.260704T2047Z-260704T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
347 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Todd County in central Minnesota...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 347 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Long Prairie,
  or 24 miles west of Little Falls, moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
           roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Long Prairie, Round Prairie, Long Prairie Airport, Grey Eagle,
  Burtrum, Swanville, North Shore and Birch Lakes State Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and has
produced large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4597 9498 4606 9474 4601 9465 4593 9465
      4593 9464 4588 9464 4577 9477 4577 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 304DEG 13KT 4595 9486

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CTG

2 follow-up statements

098 
WWUS53 KMPX 042102
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
402 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNC153-042130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-260704T2130Z/
Todd MN-
402 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY...

At 402 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Long Prairie, or 21 miles west of Little Falls, moving southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Round Prairie, Long Prairie Airport, Grey Eagle, Burtrum,
  Swanville, North Shore and Birch Lakes State Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and has
produced large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4592 9494 4598 9471 4593 9465 4593 9464
      4588 9464 4577 9477 4577 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 304DEG 13KT 4595 9485

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CTG

383 
WWUS53 KMPX 042122
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
422 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNC153-042132-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-260704T2130Z/
Todd MN-
422 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4592 9494 4598 9471 4593 9465 4593 9464
      4588 9464 4577 9477 4577 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 304DEG 13KT 4592 9479

$$

CTG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 4, 2:55 PM CDT, 52 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Isolated to scatted thunderstorms are forecast through 9PM/10PM this evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe with the main threats being heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and a few instances of hail up to 1 inch.
Quiet and warm weather is expected Sunday through at least Monday night. The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 2:55 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scatted thunderstorms are forecast through
  9PM/10PM this evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong
  to severe with the main threats being heavy rain, lightning,
  gusty winds, and a few instances of hail up to 1 inch.

- Quiet and warm weather is expected Sunday through at least
  Monday night. The next best chance for showers and
  thunderstorms arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

19Z satellite shows partly cloudy skies across central and
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A muggy afternoon and
evening is expected with temperatures continuing to warm into
the 80s and dew points rising into the upper 60s and 70s. The
muggy conditions will also allow the atmosphere to continue to
destabilize with SBCAPE values peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range this afternoon. This instability combined with a weak
passing overhead disturbance will support some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening. However, expect thunderstorms to be more pulse-like
due to rather weak 0-6km shear values around 20 kts at best,
mid-level lapse rates around 6.4 C/km, DCAPE values of 800 to
900 J/kg, and overall weak ascent. Should a thunderstorm be able
to last long enough to become strong to severe, the threat
looks to be gusty winds and instances of hail up to 1 inch.
Periods of heavy rainfall are also possible with PWATs right
around 1.5-1.6 inches. Because of the over pulse-like nature of
thunderstorms, it will be difficult to pin point exactly where
they will develop. That being said, the greatest coverage,
timing, and chances (up to 60%) of thunderstorms looks to be
across central Minnesota through 6PM. This is due to being in
closer proximity to better upper-level support. There is
generally a 30% to 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm across
Minnesota and western Wisconsin through 9PM/10PM this evening.
Chances quickly decrease after sunset but an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for southern portions through
2AM.

Upper-level flow is forecast to be more northerly on Sunday as a
ridge begins to build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
This means that height rises aloft will suppress most convection
chances to close out the holiday weekend. That being said, a
stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours cannot
be ruled out for far southeastern Minnesota. Chances of this
occurring are only around 15% at best. There is a reasonable
amount of consensus that the positively aligned ridge axis will
move over the area on Monday. So Monday's forecast calls for a
warm day with highs in the mid 80s and mostly sunny skies. By
Monday evening, shower and thunderstorm chances return as a weak
shortwave traverses the area. Because the wave passes over
later in the day/closer to sunset, overall coverage is forecast
to be on the lower end. If the shortwave traverses the area
earlier in the afternoon and around peak heating on Monday, more
areas could see showers and thunderstorms.

A more potent shortwave and an associated front looks to
approach the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is
currently the next best chance (60% to 70%) for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. For Thursday and Friday, a
largely zonal pattern looks to set up with embedded shortwaves
passing through. There is a reasonable amount of uncertainty on
timing and strength of the shortwaves which will influence the
shower and thunderstorm chances to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in
the general area of KAXN between 20Z and 21Z. Convection then
shifts to the south and east through 04Z Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorm development could occur near KMKT until 08Z. All
thunderstorm potential is reflected as PROB30 groups at this
time due to 30 percent confidence in direct impacts to any
given terminal. If a terminal does see rain this afternoon and
evening and clouds clear out overnight, low cloud/fog
development is possible. There is some uncertainty in how dense
any fog/low cloud cover will be so went with a FEW010 or SCT010
group at this time.

KMSP...Thunderstorm chances have continued to trend later, with
the greatest potential at KMSP between 00Z and 04Z Sunday. If
there is rain at or in the area this evening and clouds clear
out fast enough, there is potential for fog/low cloud
development in the 10Z to 16Z timeframe Sunday morning.
Confidence in how dense any fog/low cloud cover will be is
rather low at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, with low MVFR potential in morning. Winds N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Winds SE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc TS overnight. Winds SW 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...WFO MPX

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 3:42 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
052045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
342 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible through at
least sunset. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain. There
could be a few instances of small hail as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 2:55 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ042-042030-
Todd MN-
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TODD COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Law enforcement reported a strong thunderstorm over
Clarissa, or 25 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving southeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported nickel size hail hwy 71 near Eagle
         Bend.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Browerville, Clarissa, Eagle Bend and Clotho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4612 9515 4620 9495 4616 9476 4603 9482
      4592 9514 4593 9514 4593 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 308DEG 9KT 4610 9494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy

Local storm report, Jul 4, 3:10 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Hail             Clarissa                46.13N 94.95W
07/04/2026  M1.00 Inch       Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

CTG

Local storm report, Jul 4, 3:11 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Clarissa                46.13N 94.95W
07/04/2026                   Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

            Downed birch tree from thunderstorm.

&&

CTG

Local storm report, Jul 4, 3:31 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Hail             5 N Sauk Centre         45.81N 94.96W
07/04/2026  M1.00 Inch       Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

CTG

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 3:31 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ042-042100-
Todd MN-
331 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY UNTIL 4 PM
CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Long Prairie, or 21 miles east of Alexandria, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Clotho, Long Prairie, Lake Osakis, Round Prairie, Long Prairie
  Airport, Little Sauk, Grey Eagle, Birch Lakes State Forest, West
  Union, North Shore, Burtrum, Pleasant Beach and Swanville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4605 9515 4607 9465 4593 9465 4593 9464
      4577 9464 4577 9514 4593 9514 4593 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 346DEG 14KT 4597 9494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy

Local storm report, Jul 4, 3:37 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Hail             2 N Long Prairie        46.01N 94.87W
07/04/2026  M1.00 Inch       Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

CTG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 10:51 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MPX	Ramsey, Washington	103 min
Jul 4, 2:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Todd	51 min
Jul 4, 2:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Todd	35 min
Jul 4, 3:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Todd	38 min
Jul 4, 3:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Todd	29 min
Jul 4, 3:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stearns, Todd	38 min
Jul 4, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stearns	35 min
Jul 4, 4:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Stearns	34 min
Jul 4, 4:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kandiyohi, Stearns	50 min
Jul 4, 4:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stearns	40 min
Jul 4, 4:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kanabec, Mille Lacs, Morrison	54 min
Jul 4, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Renville	27 min
Jul 4, 5:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Benton, Sherburne, Stearns	43 min
Jul 4, 5:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Kanabec	65 min
Jul 4, 5:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kandiyohi, Meeker, Stearns	46 min
Jul 4, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kandiyohi	40 min
Jul 4, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kanabec, Mille Lacs	41 min
Jul 4, 5:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MPX	Benton, Sherburne, Stearns	2 hr
Jul 4, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kanabec	33 min
Jul 4, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kandiyohi, Meeker	48 min
Jul 4, 6:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Wright	43 min
Jul 4, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Wright	52 min
Jul 4, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Lac qui Parle	60 min
Jul 4, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Lac qui Parle	23 min
Jul 4, 6:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Hennepin	50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2026 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.