Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pope County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN

606 
WWUS83 KMPX 220654
RFWMPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...

.Temperatures rising into the 80s today along with relative humidity
values dropping under 30 percent, strong southeast winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts to 35 mph and exceptionally dry fuels will produce
hazardous fire weather conditions. Humidity values will be lowest in
the middle to late afternoon hours, which will also coincide with the
peak wind speeds. Burning is discouraged today as any fires that
develop can spread rapidly.

MNZ041>044-049>051-059-068-069-076-077-084-085-093-221900-
/O.UPG.KMPX.FW.A.0004.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KMPX.FW.W.0004.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Wright-
Carver-Scott-Le Sueur-Rice-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-
154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  and west central Minnesota.

* TIMING...From noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Around 29 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor
  burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of
this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092-221900-
/O.CON.KMPX.FW.W.0004.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow
Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-
Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-
154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central, south central, southwest, and
  west central Minnesota.

* TIMING...From noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Around 24 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor
  burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of
this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

JPC

200 
WWUS83 KMPX 221502
RFWMPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1002 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...

.Temperatures rising into the 80s today along with relative humidity
values dropping under 30 percent, strong southeast winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts to 35 mph and exceptionally dry fuels will produce
hazardous fire weather conditions. Humidity values will be lowest in
the middle to late afternoon hours, which will also coincide with the
peak wind speeds. Burning is discouraged today as any fires that
develop can spread rapidly.

MNZ045-230100-
/O.EXA.KMPX.FW.W.0004.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
Kanabec-
1002 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...Kanabec.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Around 26 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor
  burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of
this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MNZ041>044-047>051-054>059-064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093-230100-
/O.CON.KMPX.FW.W.0004.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-
Sherburne-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Redwood-Brown-
Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-
1002 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southwest, and west central Minnesota.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Around 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor
  burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of
this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

Dunleavy

292 
WWUS83 KMPX 221940
RFWMPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
240 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093-230100-
/O.CON.KMPX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260423T0100Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Wright-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-
Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
240 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southwest, and west central Minnesota.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Around 24 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor
  burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of
this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

Dunleavy

451 
WWUS83 KMPX 230057
RFWMPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
757 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093-230200-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260423T0100Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Wright-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-
Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
757 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions develop
  Wednesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday. A few
  storms may be strong to severe.

- Warm next few days, followed by a drop in temperatures for the
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Clear and quiet start to Tuesday across the Upper Midwest, with
light southerly flow supporting 24-hr temperature changes on the
order of 20+ degrees. Surface analysis captures a cold front
advancing south through ND/northern MN. High pressure will
expand over the region in the wake up the front, resulting in
light northerly winds and sunny skies overhead. It will not be
nearly as breezy as the past couple of days thanks to the
influence of the incoming surface high, which will help to limit
fire weather concerns this afternoon. Efficient boundary layer
mixing will yield another day of critical RH's (20-25 percent)
across central and southwestern MN, so we would likely be
talking about a fire weather headline if the winds were any
stronger. It's worth mentioning that we did blend in some of the
hi-res guidance into the dew point grids to try and better
capture the minimum RH's this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be a
beautiful day with highs ranging from the upper 60s (north of
I-94) to the mid 70s (along I-90).

An upper-low spinning off the coast of California is forecast to
breakdown and advance across the Rockies before taking on a
negative tilt and phasing with a trailing wave over NW Canada
Thursday into Friday. A surface cyclone will develop across the
northern Plains in response to the upper-level evolution and
will the main forecast feature of interest over the next few
days. The first "sign" of the incoming weather maker will be the
passage of a warm front Wednesday. Large scale warm advection
will increase ahead of the developing storm system and is
reflected by 925mb T's of 20-25C expanding across the southern
half of MN. Another day of efficient mixing will produce surface
highs in the 80s for most of our MN counties and the upper
70s/near 80 across western WI. The warmest locations will be
across western MN, where 90 is not out of the question. (Looking
at you Madison!). While there will be an increase in
atmospheric moisture within the region of warm advection, the
combination of warmer temperatures and dew points in the 40s to
lower 50s will still yield an afternoon of RH's dropping to
near-critical fire weather values. Even if the RH's remain
slightly more marginal (say more like 30 percent), the return of
stronger southerly winds may be problematic particularly across
western MN where the recent stretch of weather has been fairly
dry. The potential need for a fire weather headline on Wednesday
will be discussed by today's dayshift.

Focus will shift from fire weather to convective chances as the
surface system takes shape across the northern Plains Wednesday
night into Thursday. Guidance depicts a negatively tilted
shortwave trough pivoting over the Dakotas with an associated
~980s mb surface low set to track north/northeast from ND into
Manitoba as the upper features undergo the phase. As the low
lifts northeast, a cold front will translate eastward across the
Upper Midwest. This front will be the driver of convection on
Thursday. A few notes about the setup: 1) Due to the expected
model spread in phasing scenarios, there are still some
questions on how far east the systems dry slot will expand. This
will be important to watch as solutions that show a more
westerly track/wedge of dry air also depict convection
developing farther to the west. 2) Should a more easterly
solution come to fruition, we'll have to watch western MN for a
potential sneaky fire weather day.

An EML, characterized by a plume of 8.5deg/km lapse rates, is
forecast to expand over central MN Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Early morning convection will be possible on the nose
of the LLJ/ahead of the EML, which is forecast to extend into
northern MN. Would suspect skies are quiet across the MPX
forecast area until midday, when the consensus solution
illustrates the cold front advancing eastward into western MN.
Convection that develops ahead of the front will have the
potential to become severe per environmental forecast soundings
that highlight ~1000 J/kg of CAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates,
and unidirectional shear through the column. SPC's new Day 3
outlook features a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) across southwestern
MN and a larger Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for the remainder of
the WFO MPX forecast area. We'll be able to better refine timing
and specifics, but we can say it looks like damaging winds will
be the primary hazard associated with these
showers/thunderstorms. As referenced in the previous discussion,
rainfall totals should generally remain below a half inch, but
it's also likely that there will be a few winners of heavier
amounts tied to the stronger convective cells.

Temperatures will cooldown behind the frontal passage as weather
across the northern CONUS will be under the influence of a an
upper low/troughing over south central Canada. Look for highs in
the upper 50s/near 60 and lows in the 30s to lower 40s through
the weekend. Most of the weekend aims to run dry, though we do
start to see the return of PoPs heading into early next week as
a shortwave moves across the central CONUS. NBM's PoPs of 30-40
percent on Monday are reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Clear
skies expected, although some high passing cirrus may occur from
time to time. Light/variable winds this morning will turn N
during the day today then more easterly tonight into Wednesday
morning, all with speeds under 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/-RA likely, mainly PM. Wind S 10-15G25-30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind. W 10-15G25kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
328 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
220900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
328 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Near critical relative humidity values as low as 20 to 25 percent
are expected today across central through western MN. However,
wind speeds under 10 mph will mitigate the need for a Red Flag
Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Near critical southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around
30 mph are expected Wednesday over western through southern MN.
However, minimum relative humidity values of at least 30 percent
will mitigate the need for a Red Flag Warning at this time.

Thunderstorms can be expected on Thursday with the passage of a
strong cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon and evening. The main hazard will be
damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed through Wednesday
but may be possible on Thursday.