Tornado Warning 86, NWS Milwaukee, WI

289 
WWUS53 KMKX 212146
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
446 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WIC025-212156-
/O.CAN.KMKX.TO.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260821T2200Z/
Dane WI-
446 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DANE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4297 8984 4305 8984 4309 8982 4302 8950
      4286 8963 4286 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 299DEG 15KT 4291 8966 

$$

DDV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
224 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm redevelopment (~40-60% chances) ~2-9 PM this
  afternoon/evening. A few severe storms can't be ruled out,
  particularly along & west of I-39.

- Scattered thunderstorms ~12-7 PM Saturday mainly in east-
  central and southeast Wisconsin. An isolated stronger storm
  with gusty winds or hail can't be ruled out.

- Dry and pleasant conditions Sunday into the beginning of next
  week. Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Early day showers & storms have largely
vacated early this afternoon, though activity is lingering along the
state line from Janesville east to Kenosha. Activity laid down a
deeper outflow boundary, with satellite and surface obs showing the
boundary extending from Rockford, IL to Monroe to Lone Rock. Further
north, a warm frontal boundary is apparent from Mauston towards the
Rhinelander vicinity. The northern warm front & southern outflow
boundary form the eastern bound on an unstable warm sector in place
over west-central and southwest Wisconsin. This warm sector will
attempt to work toward south-central & southeast Wisconsin through
the afternoon, allowing the atmosphere to recover for additional
storm development as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Some redeveloping storms will have the potential to be severe, with
chances being greatest along & west of I-39 where instability will
be greatest. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards,
though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Stay weather aware
through this evening. Conditions will dry out after midnight as the
cold front pushes out of the area.

This Afternoon & Evening: Complex set up for re-developing
thunderstorms will be in place across southern Wisconsin during the
~2-9 PM time frame as a cold front moves in from the west.
Anticipating general thunderstorm potential areawide during this
window as the front moves in, with all storms capable of producing
brief heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning. Widespread
flooding potential is low given expected faster storm motions. Any
strong/severe storms will focus over more refined portions of the
region getting into the surface warm sector/best instability
recoveries. Observational and high-res model trends suggest that
this will be along & west of I-39, where a brief window of
sunshine will precede the encroaching cold front. Borne out in
ongoing activity near La Crosse, modest but sufficient effective
shear will be supportive for organized activity (both cells &
clusters) capable of damaging winds and some large hail. While
directional wind shear is marginal, an isolated tornado can't be
ruled out, particularly in discrete cells that interact with any
of the surface boundaries. Will be monitoring radar trends closely
for any warnings. Stay weather aware this evening, particularly
if planning to be outdoors.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Saturday through Friday:

Synopsis: Back side of a passing mid-level wave will linger across
the western Great Lakes on Saturday, combining with lift along a
back door cold front/lake breeze to support scattered thunderstorm
development over mainly east-central & southeast Wisconsin during
the afternoon hours. High pressure will move through the western
Great Lakes Sunday into the beginning of next week, bringing dry and
pleasant conditions Sunday through Tuesday. The next upper
disturbance is forecast to swing through the region Tuesday evening
into Wednesday, bringing the next chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Lingering timing uncertainties of the upper level
wave & affiliated surface boundaries make the specifics of any
strong/severe storm potential unclear at this time, with trends
being monitored in coming forecasts. High pressure will build back
into the area by Thursday, resulting in quieter conditions.

Saturday: Anticipating diurnal thundershower development between ~12-
7 PM as a combination of warming surface temperatures and cool
temperatures aloft lead to modest destabilization. Current
expectation is for highest precip chances to focus in east-central &
southeast Wisconsin, where lift from a backdoor cold front/lake
breeze will provide a focus for convective initiation. Forecast
soundings point toward weaker effective shear & thus a less
organized storm mode relative to today, but can't entirely rule out
an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or small hail in
locations benefiting from full sunshine through the morning/early
afternoon hours. Will be monitoring trends.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Mixture of flight categories prevails early this afternoon behind
earlier SHRA & TSRA. Have accounted for current trends in the near-
term forecasts at all terminals, with the general expectation for
CIGs to lift while winds turn south-southwesterly as the afternoon
progresses. Continue to monitor for additional SHRA & TSRA
development later in the afternoon as a cold front approaches from
the northwest. Development of precip will be heavily dependent on
atmospheric recovery in the wake of morning activity, with the
eastern extent of better recovery in question as of this forecast.
Have thus trended TSRA mentions based on relative confidence from
west to east in the 18Z update. Have inserted TEMPO groups at MSN
and JVL, where confidence in recovery is higher, while maintaining
existing PROB30 groups further east. Will continue to monitor radar
trends this afternoon & refine where necessary. Precip chances will
diminish by mid-late evening as the approaching cold front clears to
the southeast of the region.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

South to southwest winds will increase today as a low pressure
trough of 29.8 inches approaches southern Wisconsin from the
Minnesota Arrowhead. Ongoing thunderstorms over the far southern
open waters will vacate this afternoon, with more storm development
possible into this evening. A few storms could be strong with
gusty winds, and hail. The aforementioned trough will cross Lake
Michigan from north to south tonight and bring a wind shift to
the northwest. Then look for gusty northerly winds to develop
along a cold front that will track from north to south down Lake
Michigan Saturday evening. A few thunderstorms are possible
along this front. Northerly winds will persist through Sunday as
low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks from Lower Michigan to
Ontario. Variable winds are expected for Monday and Tuesday as
high pressure of 30.1 inches crosses the Upper Great Lakes.

Widespread/prolonged Small Craft Advisory conditions aren't expected
through the period in nearshore zones. Will be monitoring for a
brief period of advisory conditions next Tuesday, though confidence
on the eventual need for headlines is low at this time.
Thunderstorms currently moving through the region will clear out by
early afternoon, with additional storm development occurring along a
cold front this evening. A few of these storms could be strong
with gusty winds and hail.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
212 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-221915-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
212 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms expected through 9 PM. A few storms could
be severe to the west of I-39.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Scattered storms possible in east-central and southeast Wisconsin
Saturday afternoon. A stronger storm with gusty winds or hail
can't be ruled out.

Storm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

LMZ643>646-221915-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
212 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan
Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms expected. A few storms could be strong with gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Storm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-221915-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
212 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms expected. A few storms could be strong with gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Storm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
253 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WIZ056-062-212045-
Iowa WI-Sauk WI-
253 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN SAUK
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles southwest of
Reedsburg to near Richland Center to near Muscoda. Movement was
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sauk City, Spring Green, Plain, Avoca, Orion, Clyde, and Hill Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 9043 4321 9029 4319 9028 4320 9026
      4317 9022 4317 9019 4341 9019 4344 9013
      4326 8973 4324 8977 4324 8980 4319 8984
      4308 9041 4311 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 313DEG 13KT 4337 9015 4330 9030 4324 9042

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DDV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
356 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WIZ056-057-212145-
Columbia WI-Sauk WI-
356 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND
NORTHEASTERN SAUK COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 356 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wisconsin Dells, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells, Lake Delton, North Freedom, and Rock
Springs.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90/94 between mile markers 88 and 96.
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 213 and 217.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 9004 4364 8961 4341 8986 4362 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 306DEG 18KT 4365 8991

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DDV