Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Miami, FL

057 
WWUS82 KMFL 212351
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

FLZ069-163-166-170-263-266-270-370-220100-
/O.EXP.KMFL.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260422T0000Z/
Coastal Collier County-Glades County Lake Region-
Hendry County Lakes Region-Big Cypress-Glades County-
Hendry County-Northern Collier-Southwest Collier-
751 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
702 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 701 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

    - A cold front will move further south of the area today and
      allow for strong high pressure to establish across the
      region, bringing periods of breezy and gusty winds today.

    - Hazardous marine conditions continue today in the wake of
      the front.

    - Relative humidity values will drop into the 35-40% range
      this afternoon mainly over interior and western areas of
      South Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Models and sfc analyses show a synoptic scenario dominated by an
expanding high pressure across the SE CONUS and Florida in the wake
of a FROPA. The ridge axis will remain north of SoFlo, while the
frontal boundary continues to push further south into Cuba and the
central Gulf waters today. This will bring a drier air mass across
the area, with pressure gradients tightening up between the front to
the south and the high pressure to the north. Therefore, expect
generally NE winds to gradually increase today with potential for
gusts into the 25-30 mph range. Coastal locations right along the
Atlantic coastline may experience even higher gusts at times. These
conditions will also result in several marine hazards affecting the
beaches and the Atlantic coastal waters. For more details, please
refer to the Marine section below.

A few showers may still develop over the southern-most portions of
the CWA, then rain activity should end by the late morning hours.
Cooler and drier air advection will prevail this afternoon with
relative humidity values dropping into the 35-40% range over much of
central/western SoFlo. Please see the Fire Weather section below for
more details about fire hazards today.

For Wednesday, expect the drier trend to continue, while pressure
gradients start to relax. This will bring a downward trend in wind
speeds by the afternoon hours.

The cooler airmass and the persisting ENE winds will keep afternoon
highs in the upper 70s over much of the eastern half of SoFlo, and
low to mid 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Long range solutions remain fairly persistent in depicting an upper
lvl disturbance developing over the SE CONUS and moving into the
Gulf for the Thu-Fri time frame. Latest ensembles show an associated
low lvl feature also developing over the Gulf, but remaining very
weak. The added moisture and instability may bring low-end POP
coverage (15-25%) each day, with best chances Friday afternoon, and
QPF values in the half inch range or lower.

GFS and Euro bring a weak frontal boundary into the SE CONUS and
northern Florida to start the weekend, although it remains
uncertain how far south the front may reach. Regardless, the
arrival of the boundary will push a ridge of high pressure into
the western Atlantic, and further relaxing winds over SoFlo
through Sunday. Light winds or even calm periods are possible
Sunday afternoon, with overall flow acquiring a southerly
component ahead of the front. Combined with daytime heating, this
may favor a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over interior
and northern portions of SoFlo each afternoon. Then conditions may
begin to dry again early next week behind the departing front.

Temperatures should remain slightly cooler than normals through
Friday, with afternoon highs along east coast locations in the
upper 70s, and morning lows over interior areas in the low 60s. A
gradual warming will follow during the weekend, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s across most areas, and morning lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

ENE winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts today. Mainly VFR
expected with ceilings around 4k ft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue today in the wake of a
frontal passage. A few showers and thunderstorms are still
possible, mainly over the Atlantic waters, through the late
morning hours. Breezy and gusty NE winds will prevail today with
hazardous conditions due to seas building up to 8-11 ft over the
Atlantic and wind speeds of 20kt or higher. Gulf seas will range
from 3-6 ft.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Strong onshore flow and will promote a high risk of rip currents
across the Atlantic coastline through the middle of the week.
An increasing swell will also bring high surf along the Palm Beach
coastline for which a high surf advisory is in effect.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Drier air and breezy northeasterly winds will continue to
establishing across the area today behind a frontal passage, and
exacerbate the fire weather conditions. Latest model data brings
possible relative humidity values down to the 35-40 percent range
over interior and west areas of South Florida this afternoon. The
20 ft winds may reach the 15-20mph range at times, along with
FPFs in the 2.6-3.4 range. There remains a marginal concern for
fire weather conditions for those areas, and a Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  68  78  68 /   0   0   0  10
West Kendall     80  64  79  64 /   0   0   0  10
Opa-Locka        80  68  79  67 /   0   0   0  10
Homestead        79  68  79  68 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  77  69  77  69 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  77  68  77  69 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   81  69  81  69 /   0   0   0  10
West Palm Beach  77  67  77  67 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       77  68  77  69 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           85  63  84  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for FLZ069.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF