Severe Thunderstorm Warning 310, NWS Baltimore/Washington

941 
WWUS51 KLWX 270519
SVSLWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
119 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VAC137-177-270530-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0310.000000T0000Z-260727T0530Z/
Orange VA-Spotsylvania VA-
119 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ORANGE AND NORTHWESTERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

At 119 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles west of
Spotsylvania, or 15 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving south at 15
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to 
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage 
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed 
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured 
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Gold Dale, Mine Run, Logan, Parker, Cookstown, Locust Grove, and
Alsop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 7779 3832 7768 3819 7764 3822 7788
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 014DEG 12KT 3826 7778 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KLW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
942 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added more emphasis on the severe threat for the rest of the
evening, as it has increased compared to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe storms tonight, drier Monday, then a strong cold front
  yields a chance at severe weather on Tuesday.

- Drier conditions return mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe storms tonight, drier Monday, then a
strong cold front yields a chance at severe weather on Tuesday.

Current water-vapor satellite imagery and the 00z upper-air maps
from from the evening balloon launches depict a potent shortwave
diving through the region from NW to SE this evening. With a
fair amount of instability still left (1000-1500 SBCAPE), this
is sparking a few storms. With mid-level lapse rates in the 6-7
C/km range, 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear, and cold advection
occurring at 500mb, a decent hail setup is taking place right
now. Central VA will see the best chance for severe hail, as
shear drops off markedly to the NW, as does the instability. A
few severe thunderstorms have already occurred, and we could see
a few more before the night is done. Can't even rule out a few
60 mph wind gusts with DCAPE values in the 600-800 J/kg range,
which is sufficient for some severe downdrafts.

Warmer and slightly more unstable conditions are expected
Monday, but shortwave ridging aloft may limit thunderstorm
coverage. Overall, it looks like less coverage Monday afternoon
than today.

A deepening shortwave-trough will drop from the eastern Great
Lakes into our area Tue afternoon pushing a strong cold front
through the area Tue evening. Strong height falls coupled with
strengthening winds aloft will lead to greater thunderstorm
coverage and storm organization with a much greater risk of
severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts appear to be primary
risk due to expected fast storm motions, but isolated tornadoes
can't never be ruled out in NW flow. Convection should start
exiting the area quickly after 00Z Wed.

One caveat is potential for showers and thunderstorms early Tue
morning, which may leave behind plenty of clouds and limit
instability through the day Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions return mid to late week.

In the wake of Tuesday's frontal boundary, the associated low will
slowly meander towards the northeast over the next couple of days.
This should reduce rain chances overall, but spotty showers and
thunderstorms remain possible as this low slowly slides offshore of
New England late in the week. High pressure moves in overhead
towards the end of the week bringing drier air and similar
conditions overall as the week prior, with highs in the low to mid
80s.

Heading into next weekend, a broad area of low pressure begins to
form over the Midwest and track eastward. As temperatures gradually
rise towards more normal July averages, this could bring additional
shower and thunderstorm chances to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few thunderstorms have developed this evening, as was
expected, primarily affecting areas south of CHO at the moment.
A few pop-up showers can be seen developing along the Blue Ridge
now, which could impact IAD and DCA in the coming hours if
they continue to develop. Storms could bring some gusty winds,
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and even some small hail.

Less coverage is expected Monday. Severe thunderstorms are
likely Tue afternoon with damaging wind gusts and temporary
flight restrictions.

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated the second half of the
week. Northwest winds could produce gusts up to 25 kts on Wednesday
before diminishing some overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A few storms over the Blue Ridge currently could make it to the
waters later this evening. However, the threat for hazardous
condtions is much lower the further north and east you go in
the forecast area, as shear and instability drop off markedly.
Still, can't rule out a showers over the waters this evening,
potentially necessitating an MWS for 20-30 mph gusts and perhaps
small hail.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday, but upper-level
ridging should minimize that threat. SCA conditions are likely
Monday afternoon through the middle of the week.

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms Tue afternoon which may
require SMWs. Strong wind gusts greater than 50 knots, frequent
lightning, and hail will all be threats to boaters during this
time.

SCA conditions could persist through Thursday afternoon before winds
diminish overall. Southwest winds shift northwest on Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal FLood Advisory in effect for Anne Arundel County for
the early Monday morning high tide. Strengthening southerly flow
combined with a near Full Moon will lead to minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tides the next several
mornings.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/CJL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-272000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Damaging wind gusts and isolated flash flooding are
the main threats with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday.

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-272000-
Washington-Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-
Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Damaging wind gusts and isolated flash flooding are
the main threats with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday.

MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-272000-
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front
counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland
County Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Damaging wind gusts and isolated flash flooding are
the main threats with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday.