Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Louisville, KY

821 
WGUS73 KLMK 262110
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
510 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

KYC155-179-229-262120-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260526T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marion KY-Nelson KY-Washington KY-
510 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTHWESTERN MARION, CENTRAL NELSON AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 8538 3782 8529 3770 8531 3764 8539
      3764 8544 3771 8545

$$

BJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
200 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rainfall today ranging from .50" to 1.10" for most
  across central and southern Kentucky. Localized amounts of 2 to 3"
  possible from slow moving showers and storms producing moderate to
  heavy rainfall. A few instances of Flash Flooding possible.

* Marginal Risk for severe storm this afternoon and early evening
  along and south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways
  across central and southern KY for the potential for severe gusty
  winds and spin-up tornados.

* Another round of scattered to numerous moderate to heavy showers
  and thunderstorms on Wednesday could lead to another day with the
  potential for localized flash flooding across the northern
  Bluegrass.

* High pressure building and waning at the mid levels this week will
  provide episodic bouts of showers in our southern counties, with
  areas along and north of the Ohio having the best chance of
  remaining dry into next week.

* At or below normal temperatures and cool NE flow brings stretches
  pleasant weather into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The main message in the short term continues to be the
following: First, the potential for localized flash flooding due to
a repeat periods of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms
over the area today and again tomorrow.

Second, thunderstorm that form later this afternoon and evening have
the potential to be severe with the threat being gusty damaging
winds and spin up tornadoes.

***FLOODING CONCERNS***

As was highlighted in the previous discussion, a deep moisture
plume featuring PWATS of ranging between 1.9-2.1" will lift
northward across central KY through the morning into the early
afternoon. This will result in widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall. We still anticipate the heaviest and most widespread swath
of rain to be across central and southern KY where 0.5 to 1.25" are
possible with locally high amounts as high as 2 to 2.5" from slow
moving and potentially training storms over areas that have already
been saturated by rain over the last couple of days. Decided to
hold off on a Flood Watch as there was not much discussion and WPC
continues to keep central KY in a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall Outlook. With that said, given the high PWAT values, the
potential slow movement of showers and thunderstorms over already
saturated areas a few Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings may
be issued during the day.

Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
could develop tomorrow thanks to a quasi-stationary boundary over
the Ohio Valley. WPC did put the northern part of the Bluegrass and
our far eastern southern IN counties in a Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall for Wednesday with the rest of our CWA remaining in a
Marginal Risk. Deep moisture will continue to in place over the area
with additional rounds of slow moving showers and storms producing
localized heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.

***SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY***

The above mentioned deep moisture will push dewpoints to near 70
later this afternoon. Hi-res models also show a break in clouds by
the mid to late afternoon allowing for SBCAPE values to get to
between 1000-1500 J/kg. A LLJ will start to push northward into
central KY during the day allowing for increase low-level shear and
model soundings also show mid-level and curved hodographs across
southern and central KY later this afternoon. After collaborating
with neighbors and the SPC, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) was added
for areas south of a line from Lexington to Elizabethtown along I-65
to Bowling Green and along the KY/TN border due to a low end,
marginal tornado threat and isolated severe wind gusts from any
potential storms. Confidence in severe threat is low but given
recent activity agree with SPC decision and placement of the
Marginal Outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Sfc high pressure is expected to build in over the Great Lakes for
the second half of the week and into the weekend. This will help to
push the meandering stalled boundary further south. Just how dry the
area will be during this period will be determined by just how far
the boundary goes Thursday into the weekend. Some solutions do show
the front stalling out just south of the area and keeping low end
precipitation chances across our far southern CWA through the end of
the week and into the weekend. But general confidence is moderate to
high that a vast majority of the CWA remains dry. Temperatures are
also expected to be a few degrees below seasonal normals for this
time of year ranging from the low 80s on Thursday to the upper 70s
Friday into the weekend with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

High pressure is expected to remain over the region to our north to
start next week keeping the forecast dry for now and continued
unseasonably below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rain showers continue to push north, though a lull in activity is
expected this afternoon and evening. Eventually, a band of rain will
become more scattered showers overnight with winds remaining light.
Easterly winds will gradually shift out of the S/SW by Wednesday
morning with NW locations seeing the lowest ceilings and longest
duration of shower chances. By Wednesday, ceilings in the morning
will be in IFR to isolated LIFR heights, especially in the NW slowly
raising to MVFR and VFR conditions later in the afternoon Wednesday
when more scattered showers are possible late in the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BKF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1102 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     Rain             4 SE Hadley             37.02N 86.57W
05/26/2026  M1.80 Inch       Warren             KY   Cocorahs

            Heavy rainfall of 1.80 inches since 08:30 AM
            EDT. A lot of standing water reported at
            residence.

&&

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

KYZ038-039-045-046-261945-
Spencer KY-Washington KY-Nelson KY-Anderson KY-
310 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL SPENCER...
NORTHEASTERN NELSON...WESTERN ANDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
weak rotation 8 miles east of Bardstown, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bloomfield, Fairfield, Wakefield, Booker, Maud, Botland, Mooresville,
Polin, Croakes, and Fredericktown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8513 3770 8526 3772 8538 3773 8540
      3773 8542 3800 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 197DEG 14KT 3780 8532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Webb