Rip Current Statement 19, NWS Jacksonville, FL

747 
WHUS42 KJAX 300141
CFWJAX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
941 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

FLZ124-125-138-233-333-300245-
/O.CAN.KJAX.RP.S.0019.000000T0000Z-260430T0200Z/
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-
Northeast Coastal St. Johns-Southeast Coastal St. Johns-
941 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
201 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Fog over Inland Northeast & North Central FL This Morning

- Elevated Wildfire Danger Potential this Afternoon

- Thunderstorms & Beneficial Rainfall Late Tonight and by the
  weekend. Highest chances of rain will be on Saturday.

- Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Late Tonight for
  inland SE GA and Saturday/Saturday night.

- Potential widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, locally 3
  inches from today through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Chance of showers and storms late tonight from I-10 corridor
northward. An isolated severe storm is possible.
- Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today.
- Elevated fire weather conditions today.

A well-defined shortwave disturbance is passing west-east through
portions of the forecast area early this morning with the stronger
portion of the trough over southeast GA. This will be accompanied by
mostly isolated to scattered light showers over southeast GA and
will be exiting the area by about noon-2 pm. A frontal boundary will
also sag southeastward into the southeast states today and tonight,
while sfc ridge remains across the central Gulf and central FL. This
setup results in prevailing southwest flow of up to 10-15G20-25mph.
Lessening cloud cover this afternoon will help boost temps up
further than Tuesday. In fact, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
are forecast, which are near records. Climate site that has best
chance of setting a record is Craig Airport. MinRH values down to
mid 30s are certainly possible which will elevate fire weather
concerns.

For tonight, the next disturbance will move into AL and GA by the
evening hours, spreading clouds downstream into our area again. A
few showers may be developing already by mid evening over southeast
GA. In any event, associated convection with the shortwave will move
into our zones by around midnight, and spread eastward overnight
well ahead of the approaching cold front. There is a risk of locally
strong or even a severe storm with this activity though instability
will not be great, but a corridor of MLCAPE of about 800-1200 J/kg
is possible. Bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support this activity as
well. POPs of 40-60 percent is painted across southeast GA, and
about 20-30 percent for the I-10 corridor in northeast FL. Lows
tonight will be mild in the 60s given added cloud cover and
southwesterly winds of about 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Showers and Storms Thursday and Friday

A cold front entering SE GA on Thursday gradually shifts south and
stalls around north-central FL on Friday before lifting back northward
as a warm front. Meanwhile, the persistent upper ridging breaks
down as a parade of shortwaves move through the SE US. A few
showers and storms linger along the boundary in SE GA Thursday
morning. Convective coverage increases Thursday afternoon as the
front interacts with elevated moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7 in),
diurnal heating and the inland moving sea breezes. Best chances
for storms will be along the FL/GA state border. Showers
gradually wane Thursday night. Scattered showers and isolated
storms develop along and near the front again Friday afternoon.
As the front begins to lift northward as a warm front into
Friday evening, rain chances decrease from south to north
through daybreak Saturday morning. Due to the front, there will
be a north-south temperature gradient with highs ranging from
around 80 to around 90 and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weekend weather brings beneficial rain
- Isolated strong/severe storms possible Saturday

A stronger cold front moves through the area on Saturday bringing
numerous showers, embedded thunderstorms and beneficial rainfall
area-wide. Probabilities remain favorable for SE GA and NE FL to
receive around an inch of rain with this weekend's system.
Sufficient shear and instability ahead of the front could bring
a few strong to severe storms, with the general timing of
stronger storms north of I- 10 Saturday morning, shifting near
and south of I-10 into Saturday afternoon and evening. The main
convective hazards on Saturday would be strong wind gusts of
40-60 mph and possibly a few rotating cells depending on the
track of surface low moving along the front. Convection wanes
from north to south Saturday night as the front shifts into
north-central FL. A reinforcing short wave trough slides across
the region into Sunday with stratiform rainfall developing
across NE FL and few storms possible across north-central FL
Sunday near the lingering frontal zone. Drier conditions filter
in from north to south across the area Sunday into early next
week as surface high pressure builds eastward across the deep
south.

Due to the front, highs on Saturday will range from upper 60s north
to around 90 south. Temperatures then cool to near to just below
seasonable in the wake of the front Sunday into Monday. Temperatures
moderate back to near to above average Tuesday as a more typical
diurnal sea breeze regime develops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
VFR prevail during the period. Some MVFR vsby will be possible
around GNV and VQQ through about 12z. A batch of clouds will be
passing through near JAX and northward around 10z-15 associated with
a disturbance that will bring some mid clouds to the area and some
sprinkles will be possible around SSI and near JAX. This system will
move offshore to the northeast during the afternoon, with improving
sky cover afterward.  There may a stray shower this afternoon but
confidence and probs too low to include anything at this time.
Toward the end of the TAF period, increasing clouds again and expect
that some showers or a thunderstorm will be possible from about JAX
northward after 06z. Sfc winds light and variable through 12z, then
become southwesterly with speeds up to 10-15 knots with gusts around
20 knots as a front slowly approaches the region from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will enter the southeastern states today and tonight,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to northern
portions of the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
This front will then stall across the northeast Florida waters on
Thursday night and Friday. A wave of low pressure will develop over
the Gulf by late Friday night or Saturday, with widespread showers
and possibly a few strong thunderstorms overspreading our local
waters by Saturday, with activity expected to continue into Sunday
morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop on Saturday as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of this approaching wave of low
pressure. The front will shift south of the northeast Florida waters
on Sunday.

Rip Currents:

Based on latest data and guidance have hoisted another high risk for
the northeast FL beaches today with surf up to 2-4 ft. While the
risk has lowered since yesterday, it still looks close to high risk.
Should also be a moderate longshore current at times. For southeast
GA beaches, have a moderate risk today. A bit lower surf will
decrease the risk on Thursday, while Friday may be more complex as a
front makes it's way down the coast but outlook looks like moderate
risk for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

-HIGH INLAND DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
 POTENTIAL TODAY

A few light showers may move across the Altamaha river basin this
morning. Otherwise, the area will remain dry today. Elevated Fire
Danger conditions possible today with near record high temperatures,
inland humidity in the 30s and breezy southwest winds. Gusts will
near 20 to 25 mph by the afternoon. The east coast sea breeze will
develop and press inland to about the Interstate 95 corridor,
trailed by SSE winds near the coast. The combination of increasing
southwest transport winds, elevated mixing heights and hot
temperatures will also create high daytime dispersions this
afternoon, especially along and north of the I-10 corridor. Rain
chances increase across southeast Georgia tonight into Thursday as a
frontal zone settles southward across the area with isolated
thunderstorm potential. A strong storm may develop across southeast
Georgia early Thursday morning. The front stalls and lingers over
the local area into Thursday afternoon with a chance of showers and
isolated storms as the front interacts with diurnal instability and
the sea breezes.

Extended outlook: Unsettled weather with high confidence of area-
wide wetting rainfall this weekend. A chance of strong to isolated
severe storms Saturday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is possible this morning
mainly across inland northeast Florida. Smoke from nearby fires may
result in localized visibility reductions, especially during the
overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for today:

Wed, April 29:
KJAX: 93/1991
KGNV: 95/2017
KAMG: 93/2012
KCRG: 91/2021

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  66  81  60 /  20  60  60  20
SSI  86  68  80  66 /  20  50  60  30
JAX  92  67  85  65 /  10  30  60  30
SGJ  89  67  84  65 /  10  20  50  30
GNV  91  65  89  65 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  66  89  65 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&