Alert archive / Michigan / Beach Hazards Statements in 2026
Beach Hazards Statement 9, NWS Northern Indiana
NWS Northern Indiana issued this beach hazards statement at Aug 1, 2026, 5:00 AM EDT for Berrien County, Michigan; LaPorte County, Indiana. It took effect at Aug 1, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 41 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 2026, 5:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 1, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 41 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Northern Indiana
Counties LaPorte County, IN, Berrien County, MI
The radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 821 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 212 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
669
WHUS43 KIWX 010900
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-011700-
/O.NEW.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260801T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 /400 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet by late this
afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet Sunday morning building to 4 to
7 feet by late afternoon. The highest waves each day will be
from New Buffalo to Michigan City.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...From this afternoon through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-011700-
/O.NEW.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260802T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: Waves 2 to 3 feet Sunday morning building to 3 to 5
feet by late afternoon.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...Northern Berrien county.
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MCD10 follow-up statements
173
WHUS43 KIWX 011451
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1051 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-012300-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260801T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
1051 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 /951 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM
CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet by late this
afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet Sunday morning building to 4 to
7 feet by late afternoon.
*Life-threatening currents are expected.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...From 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon through Monday
morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-012300-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260802T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
1051 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: Waves 2 to 3 feet Sunday morning building to 3 to 6
feet by late afternoon.
*Life-threatening currents are expected.
* WHERE...Northern Berrien county.
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$063
WHUS43 KIWX 011945
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
345 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-020345-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260801T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
345 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 /245 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet by late this
afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet Sunday morning building to 4 to
7 feet by late afternoon.
*Life-threatening currents are expected. Strong longshore and
structural currents, especially on the north side of piers.
Rip currents are expected as well.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-020345-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260802T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
345 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: Waves 2 to 3 feet Sunday morning building to 3 to 6
feet by late afternoon.
*Life-threatening currents are expected. Strong longshore and
structural currents, especially on the north side of piers.
Rip currents are expected as well.
* WHERE...Northern Berrien county.
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$988
WHUS43 KIWX 020254
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1054 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-021100-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
1054 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 /954 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: 3 to 6 feet.
*Life-threatening currents are expected. Strong longshore and
structural currents, especially on the north side of piers.
Rip currents are expected as well.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-021100-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260802T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
1054 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: 3 to 6 feet.
*Life-threatening currents are expected. Strong longshore and
structural currents, especially on the north side of piers.
Rip currents are expected as well.
* WHERE...Northern Berrien county.
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$060
WHUS43 KIWX 020938
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
538 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-021745-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
538 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 /438 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: 2 to 5 feet this morning building to 4 to 7 feet this
afternoon and evening. Highest waves, especially this morning
are expected from Michigan City, IN to New Buffalo, MI.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-021745-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260802T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
538 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet by late this
afternoon and evening.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MCD213 WHUS43 KIWX 021451 CFWIWX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1051 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 INZ103-MIZ277-022300- /O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/ Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien- 1051 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 /951 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026/ ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT... Waves build to 4 to 7 feet this afternoon and evening. Currents expected. * WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan, Southern Berrien county. * WHEN...Through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves can sweep people off piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. Do not venture out on piers. && $$ MIZ177-022300- /O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260802T2100Z-260803T1200Z/ Northern Berrien- 1051 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Waves build to 3 to 6 feet this afternoon and evening. Currents expected. * WHERE...Northern Berrien county. * WHEN...From 5 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves can sweep people off piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. Do not venture out on piers. && $$
599
WHUS43 KIWX 021957
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
357 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-030400-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
357 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 /257 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: 4 to 7 feet. Highest waves, especially this morning
are expected from Michigan City, IN to New Buffalo, MI.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-030400-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.260802T2100Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
357 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet by late this
afternoon and evening.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...Northern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$739
WHUS43 KIWX 030229
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1029 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-031030-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
1029 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 /929 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM
CDT/ MONDAY...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: Waves 4 to 7 feet.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-031030-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
1029 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected.
*Waves: Waves 3 to 6 feet.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...Northern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$140
WHUS43 KIWX 030900
CFWIWX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
INZ103-MIZ277-031200-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien-
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 /400 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026/
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM
CDT/ THIS MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected early this morning.
*Waves: Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet this
afternoon.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan,
Southern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MIZ177-031200-
/O.CON.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/
Northern Berrien-
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected early this morning.
*Waves: Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 1 foot this
afternoon.
*Longshore Current: Expected. Moving from north to south along
the beach.
*Structural Currents: Expected, especially on the north sides of
piers and breakwalls.
*Rip Currents: Expected.
* WHERE...Northern Berrien county.
* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.
* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
and high waves can sweep people off piers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Do not venture out on piers.
&&
$$
MCD137 WHUS43 KIWX 031135 CFWIWX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Northern Indiana 735 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 MIZ177-031245- /O.CAN.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1200Z/ Northern Berrien- 735 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED... While the worst of the wind and wave conditions have passed... moderate swim risks remain through the rest of the day. Please continue to use caution and safety. $$ INZ103-MIZ277-031400- /O.EXT.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1400Z/ Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien- 735 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 /635 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026/ ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions expected this morning. early this morning. Rip currents and longshore currents expected due to 2 to 4 foot waves. * WHERE...In Indiana, Northern La Porte county. In Michigan, Southern Berrien county. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning. * IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves can sweep people off piers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. Do not venture out on piers. && $$
909 WHUS43 KIWX 031353 CFWIWX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Northern Indiana 953 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 INZ103-MIZ277-031500- /O.EXP.KIWX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-260803T1400Z/ Northern La Porte-Southern Berrien- 953 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 /853 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026/ ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING... While the worst of the wind and wave conditions have passed... moderate swim risks remain through the rest of the day. Please continue to use caution. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Aug 1, 2:33 AM EDT, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Chance of showers and storms tonight into Saturday morning (60-90%). Some areas may experience a lull in rain chances Saturday morning into early afternoon, but scattered to numerous showers with some thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon into at least Sunday morning. Widespread severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong to severe storm is possible Saturday afternoon and early evening with isolated wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible, especially south of US Route 24.
- Heavy rain is possible Saturday into Sunday morning. Confidence remains low regrading placement of highest rainfall amounts with greatest chances of storm total rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches (~ 50%) along and south of US Route 30 across northern Indiana. Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches are possible where any persistent thunderstorm activity can develop. The greatest flood risk is expected Saturday night into early Sunday.
- There is a moderate swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches along the Southern Berrien County, MI and La Porte County, IN late Saturday afternoon and evening. Breaking waves and currents are expected.
- There is a high swim risk for beaches along both La Porte County, IN and all of Berrien County, MI shorelines on Sunday. Life- threatening waves and currents are expected. Those planning to visit the beach should stay out of the water.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 2:33 AM EDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
233 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance of showers and storms tonight into Saturday morning
(60-90%). Some areas may experience a lull in rain chances
Saturday morning into early afternoon, but scattered to
numerous showers with some thunderstorms are expected Saturday
afternoon into at least Sunday morning. Widespread severe
storms are not expected, but an isolated strong to severe
storm is possible Saturday afternoon and early evening with
isolated wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible, especially south
of US Route 24.
- Heavy rain is possible Saturday into Sunday morning.
Confidence remains low regrading placement of highest rainfall
amounts with greatest chances of storm total rainfall amounts
in excess of 2 inches (~ 50%) along and south of US Route 30
across northern Indiana. Localized rainfall amounts in excess
of 4 inches are possible where any persistent thunderstorm
activity can develop. The greatest flood risk is expected
Saturday night into early Sunday.
- There is a moderate swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches along
the Southern Berrien County, MI and La Porte County, IN late
Saturday afternoon and evening. Breaking waves and currents
are expected.
- There is a high swim risk for beaches along both La Porte
County, IN and all of Berrien County, MI shorelines on Sunday.
Life- threatening waves and currents are expected. Those
planning to visit the beach should stay out of the water.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Potential of Heavy Rainfall with Greatest Concern Saturday
Night/early Sunday....
The primary forecast concern for this forecast will be potential of
heavy rainfall, with greatest impacts possible Saturday night into
Sunday AM.
Some elevated moisture return is approaching the IN/IL stateline
this afternoon downstream of a stronger upper level short wave
tracking across central Iowa. Some fairly dry mid level air
preceding this zone of moisture advection should limit rainfall
through late this afternoon with this initial elevated forcing. A
more robust low level theta-e ridge will build in from northeast
Illinois after 03Z this evening. Some question as to how strongly
forced the setup will be late this evening, with potential of
more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms passably
holding off until late overnight hours as upper jet streak
noses into southern Great Lakes with deeper moisture profiles in
place. Some trimming of PoPs may be needed this evening across
central/eastern portions of the area as initial mid level
moisture advection forcing outruns better upper support. Did
delay thunder mention a bit this evening with lapse rates
looking meager as mid level moistening occurs, with greater
thunder potential likely holding off until after 06Z.
Saturday through early Sunday afternoon still appears to be most
potentially impactful period of this forecast with heavy rainfall
potential the first order concern followed by some marginal severe
threat south of US 24. Guidance has exhibited some dramatic shifts
over past few days in the handling of mass fields with this system
which appears to be in large part in difficulty handling the
location and strength of the associated diabatic PV anomaly across
the Mid MS Valley. Overall trend in 12Z guidance (although still
with large variance) has been toward an initially weaker low/mid
level diabatic PV anomaly and preference to more of a southward
suppression of low level reflection into west central Indiana by
midday Saturday. Some indications of a weak mid level dry slot
feature punching into the area Saturday morning could provide a
lull in greater shower coverage, but stronger upper support/DPVA
and northward migration of 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE axis should
allow for convective redevelopment in the afternoon. The
downstream low level jet into east central Indiana may be a bit
more subdued as a result of the initially more suppressed
evolution tonight which could yield a bit lower of a severe
threat from earlier indications Saturday afternoon. No
significant changes noted in SPC Day 2 Outlook with Marginal
Risk (mainly wind) across far southeast areas. Some locally
heavy rainfall is possible Saturday afternoon with greatest
potential across the south/southeast where greater instability
should reside and where some enhanced low level convergence
from low level jet could be situated.
The biggest potential impact with the system for this weekend is
beginning to focus more on hydrology. PWAT's of 1.75 to 2.00 inches
are expected to wrap around mid level height minimum into the local
area Saturday into Saturday night. The track of the mid/upper height
minimum across central Indiana and sharpening of low level trough
axis should allow a deformation-forced region to form Saturday
night into early Sunday AM. Very strong low level moisture
convergence is possible from the combination of the weak
southerly flow across the south and more robust easterly flow
across the southern Great Lakes to maximize precip efficiency.
Warm cloud depths are also expected to be in excess of 12k feet.
Some higher res guidance depicts an axes of very heavy rainfall
Saturday night an storm total rainfall amounts in excess of 5
inches in area of strongest deformation forcing. Some
consideration was given this afternoon to issuing a Flood Watch
for Saturday night into Sunday AM. Upon collaboration, have
opted to hold off on Flood Watch with this issuance given
relatively dry antecedent conditions and very high run to run
volatility in recent guidance with key low level mass features
which will affect strength/position of deformation forcing.
Saturday night/Sunday AM does increasingly look like a period to
watch for hydro concerns however.
Forecast confidence is below normal for early next week with
guidance struggling in how to handle residuals of the mid/upper
level system across Ohio Valley in weak steering flow/blocking
pattern. Did accept blended guidance trend of maintaining PoPs into
middle of the week but this will be subject to change given to low
predictability of this pattern. A dampened upstream ridge by the
middle of next week via a series of Pacific waves will allow
potential of some renewed theta-e advection in wake of
decaying/departing upper low with additional chances of storms
Wed/Thu and trend back to seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
Mainly VFR conditions tonight with light rain still struggling
to really impact ceilings/visibilities. Upstream the occluded
front is shifting eastward, with a broad rain shield and some
thunderstorms out ahead of it (mainly over IL/IA). Ceilings in
that region closer to the low are in the MVFR range/some IFR
further west. This will move into our area through the
morning/afternoon. Expect a break is possible in precipitation
chances (more so than what is in the TAF probably) late this
morning but redevelopment is likely tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Have IFR conditions materializing after 00z tomorrow as a
predominant (could be brief drops in heavier showers or storms).
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...MCDThe office that day
Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 11:18 AM EDT | Flood Watch | IWX | Adams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 18 more | 26 hr |
| Aug 1, 6:38 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | IWX | White | 3 hr |
Nearby
Beach Hazards Statements in Michigan, 2026Beach Hazards Statements in Indiana, 2026Every beach hazards statement in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.