Tornado Warning 36, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

942 
WWUS53 KFSD 022326
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SDC079-022345-
/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260702T2345Z/
Lake SD-
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
LAKE COUNTY...

At 626 PM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both
tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located near
Madison, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Wentworth around 630 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4388 9722 4402 9729 4411 9692 4390 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 258DEG 39KT 4397 9707 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

SG

422 
WWUS53 KFSD 022338
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
638 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SDC079-022348-
/O.EXP.KFSD.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260702T2345Z/
Lake SD-
638 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM
CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central South Dakota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Lake county until 7 PM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4388 9722 4402 9729 4411 9692 4390 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 259DEG 36KT 4399 9691 

$$

SG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms have already developed along
  and outflow boundary this afternoon. Large hail up to 2+
  inches and damaging winds to 70 mph are the main hazards with
  these storms. A tornado or two is possible as well.

- A second round of storms is expected this evening and night
  near and south of I-90. These storms look to form into a line
  and be capable of damaging winds to 75 mph. An isolated line
  embedded tornado is possible as well.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is possible Friday
  evening and night. This second round of storms again looks to
  come in the form of a line. As of now, these storms look
  travel along the Missouri River Valley with damaging winds to
  70 mph being the main hazard.

- With multiple periods of thunderstorms in the region, flooding
  becomes a concern for any locations seeing multiple rounds of
  heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch has been issued for all of
  northwest Iowa through Friday morning.

- While severe weather is unlikely on July 4th, isolated to
  scattered showers and storms are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A complex convective evolution is expected for the rest of today,
including the evening and overnight hours, as multiple boundaries
will be in play. An outflow boundary from storms in North Dakota has
pushed into the area near and south of highway-14 corridor early
this afternoon. Thunderstorms, some of which are strong to severe
already, There is also a second boundary near I-90 that served as
the focal point for this mornings storms.

The first round of storms have already fired along the first outflow
boundary from the North Dakota storms. These storms look to affect
locations north of I-90, but especially along and near highway-14.
These storms will be in a favorable environment characterized by
effective shear values up to around 40 knots. Hodographs show a
little curvature in the lowest 0-3 km. But the bulk of the shear
will remain aloft as the right entrance of an upper level jet streak
begins to push off to the northeast. CAPE values will be more than
sufficient with MLCAPE values up to and exceeding 2,500 J/kg. DCAPE
will also be sufficient near to above 1,000 J/kg. Thus, Large hail
up to 2+ inches in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph will be the
primary hazards. A tornado or two is also possible should a storm
ride along the outflow boundary and efficiently ingest it's
helicity.

This round of storms will be coming to an end by the later evening
hours. However, another shortwave trough will be pushing into the
area, developing a second round of storms along the second boundary.
This second round looks to grow upscale into a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) and push eastwards across locations generally near and
south of I-90. With the upper level jet pushing away from the area,
overall vertical shear profiles will be beginning to weaken.
However, the low level jet will be strengthening which will allow
the MCS to maintain its strength through the overnight hours. Plenty
of elevated instability will be availability in excess of 1,000 to
2,000 J/kg. Vertical shear values will remain sufficient at 40
knots. 0-3 km shear will be a bit on the weak side with magnitudes
up to 20-25 knots. This shear vector may be oriented perpendicularly
off of the MCS which suggests that a tornado threat is possible.
Though this will depend on how the storms and their respective
orientation play out. DCAPE values will remain near 1,000 J/kg but
min to max theta-e difference value's will be low, down to about
-25K. Thus, damaging winds to 75 mph will be the main hazard.

Another round of storms is possible for the day on Friday. With the
previously mentioned shortwave trough east of the area, the daylight
hours for Friday look to be on the drier side due to subsidence on
the backside of the departing wave. Some isolated showers may
persist though. The next chance for strong to severe storms will
come on Friday evening and night. As of now, the latest hi-res
guidance is showing another MCS tracking near to down the Missouri
River Friday night. The environment looks to be more than sufficient
with instability values up to 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear
values up to 40-50 knots will coincide with the larger instability.
0-3 km shear will be stronger at 30-35 knots. Like Friday's storms,
there is some uncertainty regarding the orientation of the 0-3 km
shear vector. If a proper orientation can be achieved, then a line
embedded tornado threat can develop. Min to max theta-e difference
will again be sufficient, down to around -25K. This will support the
potential for damaging wind gusts as the MCS passes through. gusts
may exceed 70 mph. Golf ball size hail could be possible in the
initial developmental stage before a quick transition to a linear
mode occurs. There remains uncertainty regarding the location of
this potential MCS as its overall evolution will be dependent on how
Thursday's storms pan out. Any severe storm threat should be coming
to an end near daybreak Saturday morning. Aside from the severe
storm potential, there remains the potential for flash flooding with
them as well. Please see the hydrology section below for more
information.

Saturday (Independence Day) looks to have some storm potential. An
incoming surface high pressure system looks to push some of the
available moisture to the south of the area. While this does not
mean there will be no instability, it does suggest that the
strongest storms will be off to the south of the as the best frontal
forcing looks to lie near or south of I-80. That said, non-severe
storms are possible which could affect holiday plans. Too early to
say for sure when and where these storms could track. Continue to
monitor the latest forecast for the most up to date information.

The rest of the weekend and first half of next week could feature
additional chances for showers and storms. This potential is
uncertain at this time as the better upper level jet will push away
from the Northern Plains, leaving weaker forcing for this period of
time. As of now, have not strayed the NBM's PoPs at this time.
Otherwise, temperatures look to remain in the 80s to potentially
reaching into the low 90s in a few spots.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Latest satellite shows remnant cloud cover across areas along
and east of I-29 early this afternoon. A few showers remain
along and north of highway-20. An outflow boundary is also
present mainly near KHON. This boundary looks to serve as the
focal point for new thunderstorm development this afternoon
around KHON. These storms will push off to the northeast through
the afternoon and evening hours before another round of
thunderstorms develops late this evening and overnight. The bulk
of the storms looks to affect locations mainly south of I-90.
These storms will push east of the area by the morning hours
tomorrow. Ceilings and visibilities look to fall to MVFR levels
or lower in the storms themselves. Additional showers could pass
through the area during the morning hours tomorrow but
confidence is not high enough to include in a TAF at this time.

There remains uncertainty regarding the exact location and timing of
storms. Changes in the forecast in the next TAF update as well as
amendments are possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Individual model guidance, along with PMM from the
HREF continues to indicate the potential for 1-3 inches of rain with
pockets exceeding 4 inches in some locations. This, combined with
saturated ground from recent rainfall, may result in enhanced
runoff. Confidence remains low in the exact location or areal extent
of higher rainfall but there appears to be agreement in a west to
east stripe of enhanced rain totals across NW IA this evening and
overnight that would be capable of flash flooding. This idea has
some support from NWM rapid onset flooding probabilities. In
addition to flash flooding, guidance would also suggest some minor
to perhaps moderate river flooding is also possible by this weekend.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Meyers
HYDROLOGY...Kalin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-030815-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this morning over parts of
northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. The main threats will be
quarter sized hail and wind gusts around 50 to 60 mph.

The bigger concern comes this evening into the overnight hours when a
complex of thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from
the northwest. These storms will be capable of producing wind gusts
to 75 mph and heavy rainfall. If a storm can develop this afternoon,
2 inch hail, an isolated tornado and wind gusts to 70 mph are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of potential severe storms and heavy rainfall will
move into the area on Friday evening and Friday night. Details are
uncertain at this time. It's important to monitor the forecast over
the coming days heading into the holiday weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
539 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 N Artesian            44.09N 97.91W
07/02/2026  M60 MPH          Sanborn            SD   Mesonet

            SD Mesonet site.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
542 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 SW Iroquois           44.33N 97.93W
07/02/2026  M72 MPH          Beadle             SD   Public

            Personal weather station.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
550 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 N Yale                44.57N 98.01W
07/02/2026  M59 MPH          Beadle             SD   Public

            SD Mesonet site 7 SW Carpenter.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
555 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Erwin               44.50N 97.53W
07/02/2026  M72 MPH          Kingsbury          SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DTMS2 De Smet 7N (SD
            Mesonet).

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
604 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Erwin               44.50N 97.53W
07/02/2026  M82 MPH          Kingsbury          SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DTMS2 De Smet 7N (SD
            Mesonet).

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
613 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 WSW Lake Preston      44.32N 97.46W
07/02/2026  M58 MPH          Kingsbury          SD   Public

            Measured by personal weather station.

&&

JC