Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
736 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous to widespread thunderstorms will continue through this
  tonight. An isolated strong storm producing winds up to 40mph,
  locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning remains possible.

- Patchy fog will be possible tonight into early Tuesday morning,
  some of which could be locally dense. This is most likely to
  occur in areas that see heavy rainfall today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A pronounced 600dam H500 ridge will continue to slide across the far
Northern Plains today and elongate across the Midwest tomorrow as a
deep northern stream trough lifts across the northern flank of the
ridge. Farther south, across the Tennessee Valley into the southeast
states, a weak upper trough and associated closed low will gradually
retrograde from just south of Nashville into Alabama within weak
flow south of the upper ridge. A very moist and modestly unstable
airmass is in place across much of the region early this afternoon
with PWATs of over 2", which fall above the 90th percentile for mid
July. Copious cloud cover and very moist profiles with a dearth of
dry air will generally preclude available instability. As such,
surface-based CAPE should be limited to around 2,000 J/kg with tall
skinny CAPE profiles noted in the ATL ACARS soundings. Showers and a
few thunderstorms have already blossomed across north Georgia closer
to the surface low with numerous to widespread showers and storms
expected to expand in coverage across much of the area through the
remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening. While a few
strong to isolated severe storms with locally damaging wet
microbursts cannot be ruled out, the main threat will be pockets of
excessive rainfall and flash flooding potential. Deeply saturated
profiles and slow storm motions with clusters of storms will yield
isolated pockets of rainfall with totals upwards of 3-6". Placement
of these isolated pockets is highly uncertain and could occur pretty
much anywhere. Isolated flash flooding will be possible where any of
these higher rates and totals set up shop, especially should it
occur over urban areas.

At least some degree of showers is expected to linger through the
evening and into the overnight with the nearby placement of the
upper low and a very moist environment. The pattern remains fairly
similar for tomorrow even as the upper trough shifts off to the
west. In fact, a broad area of confluent southeast flow looks to
develop along the I-16/I-75 corridors into central Georgia. PWATs
will remain elevated and in the 2-2.4" range with around 2000-2500
J/kg of surface-based CAPE. The 12z suite of CAM guidance is in
generally good agreement in the development of a band of convection
within the confluence zone with another bout of numerous afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. As is the case today, any storms will be
capable of isolated wet microbursts and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

As an elongated zone of weakening ridging continues to reside to our
north, a relative zone of low pressure will remain in place across
the south-central and southeastern US. The more organized low
pressure center near/just west of our CWA today will tend to weaken
and retrograde westward toward Texas with time into mid-week,
trending Georgia back toward a more "typical" summer convective
pattern with more isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage
(instead of widespread) expected each afternoon and evening driven
largely by diurnal heating and moist moderate CAPE/low shear
profiles. NAM and GFS forecast soundings maintain high PWATs in
excess of 2 inches throughout the long-term period, and heavy
rainfall will continue to be a risk with thunderstorms. High
temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s Wednesday will trend back up
each day into the low- to mid-90s by Friday, holding there for the
upcoming weekend. With apparent temperatures returning to the 100s
and overnight low temperatures only cooling off into the 70s, we'll
need to monitor for the need for any heat-related alerts during this
period, especially south and east of the Atlanta metro where our
current forecast nudges close to Heat Advisory criteria at times.
Building ridging over the western CONUS by early next week will
place Georgia in more of a northwest flow pattern with potential for
disturbances to ride over and down the east side of the ridge,
better focusing higher convective chances at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Mixed bag of MVFR to VFR to continue before cigs tank (IFR and
patchy LIFR) overnight...likely around or shortly after 06z. Sct
shra is likely to continue through much of the overnight period
with tsra lessening in coverage following sunset. Patchy BR/FG
possible especially in places that received heavy rain. Light
and/or vrb wind overnight picking up mainly from the E/SE 4-7kts
after 16z Tuesday. CSG may see SSW wind on Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  81  69  87 /  90  70  40  60
Atlanta         70  82  71  86 /  80  80  40  70
Blairsville     64  78  64  83 /  60  50  20  50
Cartersville    69  83  70  87 /  80  70  30  70
Columbus        71  86  71  88 /  60  80  40  50
Gainesville     68  79  69  86 /  80  70  40  50
Macon           70  85  70  87 /  60  80  50  70
Rome            69  82  69  87 /  70  70  30  70
Peachtree City  69  82  69  86 /  80  80  40  80
Vidalia         71  88  71  90 /  70  70  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Winesett
LONG TERM....Smith
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
144 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141745-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
144 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms continue this afternoon and
evening. Some storms may become strong to severe and capable of
producing gusty to damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday. Any
storms that form will be capable of producing gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely each day through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.