Tornado Warning 4, NWS Des Moines, IA

846 
WWUS53 KDMX 140011
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
711 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

IAC063-109-140021-
/O.EXP.KDMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260414T0015Z/
Emmet IA-Kossuth IA-
711 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN EMMET AND NORTHWESTERN
KOSSUTH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central
and northwestern Iowa.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
southeastern Emmet and northern Kossuth Counties. 

LAT...LON 4350 9407 4338 9445 4348 9455 4350 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 231DEG 16KT 4353 9435 

$$

Dodson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms in northern Iowa late this afternoon and
  evening with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado
  possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible in far
  northern Iowa.

- Next round of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall on
  Tuesday afternoon into night, especially central into southern
  Iowa.

- Additional rounds of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall
  on Wednesday (eastern Iowa) and again on Friday (much of Iowa).

- Warm and breezy today through Friday with highs in the 70s and
  80s, then temperatures tumble into the 40s and 50s this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Today is the start of a busy, active stretch of weather with
multiple rounds of severe storms and heavy rainfall potential
through weeks end. The first round is setting up for later this
afternoon into this evening over northern Iowa. Early afternoon
GOES-East Day Cloud Phase Distinction has scattered low level
cumulus clouds from Siouxland into northern Iowa with a fair
amount of clearing south of these clouds in western Iowa. A warm
front is where the clearing/scattered cumulus clouds are
located from just north of Sioux City to north of Algona to
north of Mason City. Forecast soundings initially show a warm
capping layer aloft, which will prevent storm development.
However, as the triple point/low pressure moves into northwest
Iowa late this afternoon, these same soundings show weakening of
the cap. This will allow any inhibition to be overcome and for
surface based storms to develop in the vicinity/east of the
triple point. Proximity soundings show 3000 J/kg or more of
entrainment CAPE, more than ample deep layer shear, and steep
lapse rates for severe storms. The hodograph is more linear
given lack of backed surface flow so large hail and damaging
winds are obvious concerns. Uncontaminated 0-1 km storm relative
helicity is marginal at around 100 m2/s2, but with the triple
point and warm front over our area, think a few tornadoes will
be possible as the flow backs more locally ahead of these
features that may enhance the low level flow and helicity.
Looking at convective allowing model (CAM) guidance, this has
been showing up in past runs of the HRRR along with the ARW
cores developing over northwest into north central Iowa close to
0z/7pm this evening. Warn on Forecast (WoFS) is running over
the area and the 18z paintballs shows initiation between
22-23z/5-6pm and potential for rotating storms in the vicinity
of Spencer that then spreads east-northeastward. As one or more
storms develop and move to the east-northeast, these should
congeal into a line with the main hazards transitioning more to
a large hail and damaging wind threat as the storms exit into
northeastern Iowa by midnight. While quite limited, National
Water Model forced HRRR has shown some rapid onset flooding
potential in far northern Iowa near the Minnesota border, but as
the hydro discussion outlines below this will be limited to
urban areas. For areas outside of northern Iowa/south of roughly
Highway 3, the forecast is expected to be dry. The exception,
which is shown in the ARW and NAMNest, is the possibility of
convection with a hail and wind threat that turns east-
southeastward into the instability gradient. While not a likely
scenario, it does exist.

Severe risks also exist on Tuesday and Wednesday with each
subsequent round better determined after the first has occurred.
For Tuesday, the boundary will slip into our forecast area with
a weak surface low to the west of the state that moves in later
in the day or at night. The front should be a focus for
possible storm development mid to late afternoon, but there is a
variety of times and locations for convective initiation as the
location of moisture gradients, the low position, and wind
fields all vary greatly amongst the CAMs. This plays a crucial
role in what, if any, storms develop in the afternoon, their
location and their hazards. While whatever threat develops and
moves into eastern Iowa Tuesday evening, a strong low level jet
will begin to move up into our area by late evening. This will
bring renewed convection into southern and central Iowa by late
evening through much of the overnight, which wanes into the
daylight hours of Wednesday. The main hazards would be hail and
wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

As the western CONUS shortwave trough finally lifts into our region,
expect a final round of storms across eastern portions of Iowa
on Wednesday. Instability and shear parameter space looks
favorable for strong to severe storms with large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and tornadoes all possible. Further, the surface low
and warm front could be over central Iowa and may aid in
enhancing low level hodographs, but this is a detail to monitor
versus be concerned about at this time horizon.

As Wednesday's strong synoptic forcing passes by, Thursday is
looking like a more tranquil, dry day into Thursday night.
However, the next amplified shortwave trough will be trucking
towards the region taking on a neutral tilt. With a surface low
and cold front moving through the region/state sometime on
Friday with highs reaching the 70s and 80s, another round of
strong to severe storms will be possible with this highlighted
in the day 5 SPC outlook. As the storms move east of the state
Friday night, colder air will wrap in behind the departing low
and cannot rule out some snowflakes in northern portions of the
state early Saturday. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s and
50s with breezy winds from the northwest on Saturday as well.
Further, those with early season vegetation will want to monitor
the forecast with sub-freezing temperatures forecast Saturday
night/Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs cover Iowa currently and CIGs will
continue to improve through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected near the IA/MN border this evening, though uncertainty
remains in the southward extent so PROB30s are introduced for
MCW/ALO. Strong flow off the ground through the overnight will
induce LLWS for mainly the KOTM/KALO sites, but marginal LLWS will
exist at KDSM as well. This is omitted from the KDSM TAF in this
update, but trends in shear magnitude will be monitored. Lastly,
increased humidity will fill in behind a front tomorrow morning,
bringing in lower ceilings and fog, mainly for KMCW/KALO/KFOD. Fog
is expected to be patchy, but IFR thresholds could be crossed for
brief periods.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Multiple rounds of seasonally moderate to heavy rain this week will
lead to renewed flooding concerns. Presently the main concern will
be possible renewed or additional river flooding.

Output from the GFS- and NBM-forced medium-range National Water
Model (NWM) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS)
suggest the most likely scenario will be moderate to significant
within-bank rises on many rivers and streams, especially across the
southeast half of the CWA over the next week. A few locations may
see minor river flooding as well. These rises will be due to the
additive effect of multiple rounds of rainfall. If rainfall is
higher than presently forecast then the risk of several locations
seeing minor flooding and a few locations seeing moderate flooding
will increase.

Flash flooding is less of a concern than river flooding, however the
risk is nonzero. The most likely scenario will be ponding of water
or low-end flash flooding especially in urban areas or areas that
receive repeated heavy rainfall over a relatively short time
period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ansorge
LONG TERM...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge/De Bruin
HYDROLOGY...Zogg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
320 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-142030-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
320 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across portions of central Iowa this evening into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across much of central and eastern Iowa on Tuesday. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible.

There will be additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
on Wednesday and again on Friday. Specific details on those events will
be better resolved in the coming days.

River flooding will also be possible this week as multiple rounds
of rainfall occur. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today or tonight across northern
Iowa.

IAZ004>007-015>017-142030-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
320 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northern Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across portions of northern Iowa this evening into tonight. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across much of central and eastern Iowa on Tuesday. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible.

There will be additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
on Wednesday and again on Friday. Specific details on those events will
be better resolved in the coming days.

River flooding will also be possible this week as multiple rounds
of rainfall occur. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today or tonight across northern
Iowa.

Rotter/Dodson