Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Dodge City, KS

890 
WGUS73 KDDC 240956
FFSDDC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
456 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

KSC067-075-093-129-187-241006-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260924T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grant KS-Hamilton KS-Kearny KS-Morton KS-Stanton KS-
456 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 /356 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANT, SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON, WESTERN
KEARNY, NORTHEASTERN MORTON AND EASTERN STANTON COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10176 3786 10163 3810 10150 3820 10135
      3819 10134 3816 10133 3815 10133 3811 10124
      3800 10127 3757 10137 3739 10155 3739 10156
      3738 10156 3718 10173

$$

BURGERT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A good soaking rain will continue this morning and possibly
  into the afternoon hours.

- Rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 2.0" is looking to remain on
  track. Isolated higher amounts in excess of 2" cannot be ruled
  out either.

- Looking ahead, a drier and warmer weekend is expected across
  southwest Kansas.

- Additional unsettled weather is forecast by the ensembles next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Our 00Z RAOB measured a PWAT of 1.70". This is well over the
90th percentile of 1.15". The max for this day per the SPC RAOB
climo was 1.56". The bottom line is that we are dealing with an
incredibly wet atmosphere for this time of year. At the mid
level of the atmosphere, satellite water vapor channel shows a
mid level trof working across the southern Rockies. Ahead of
this disturbance, radar is showing plenty of showers across the
entire region. As a result, the scattered soaking rain showers
will continue to work across the FA through the early morning
hours. Several CAMs continue to indicate various rainfall
amounts falling this morning and later today. There seems to be
a general consensus of 0.5" to 2.0". Some of CAMs are
forecasting 3+" through early Friday morning. The latest
official NBM/WPC grid has rainfall amounts in the 0.5" to 2.0",
with isolated higher amounts. There is a little bit of
uncertainty in exactly how much additional showers will develop
later this afternoon. Given the very moist atmosphere, it seems
prudent to continue to hold on to higher pops later today given
the very moist atmosphere. I did ask neighbors (PUB and GLD) if
they wanted to join AMA in issuing any flood headlines. The
duration of this event is rather long and it has been very dry
recently, so a consensus of no headlines was reached on this
shift. Otherwise, enjoy the cloudy, rainy and cool day. We
certainly needed this type of weather day given the above normal
heat we have been experiencing.

Looking ahead, addition widely scattered showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder will be possible for Friday. Areal coverage
should start to be lesser Friday than compared to Thursday, as
PWATs are forecast to decrease through the day and as the main
synoptic trof starts to swing out of the general region. By
Saturday and Sunday, GEFS and ENS are forecasting shortwave
ridging with drier air continue to advect in from the west and
northwest. This would support the notion of a drier and warmer
forecast. Highs over the weekend will likely trend to be above
normal with values peaking solidly in the low to mid 80s. Lows
will also trend to be above normal with values only bottoming
out mainly in the 60s than compared to the normal 50s.

For next week, long range models and their ensemble counterparts
are forecasting another trof starting to carve out across the
southwestern United States. Moisture advection looks to increase
once again downstream of this mid level disturbance with PWATs
reaching higher values across the Great Plains. This moisture
along with some mid level waves moving across should set the
stage of showers and isolated thunderstorms as we start to head
through the beginning to mid period of the next business
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Considerable moisture will remain in place across the terminals
today and tonight. A mid level disturbance moving through will
lead to continued early morning -shra across the terminals as
well. Additional shower development is possible this afternoon,
per some of the latest models. Have a tempo group in the TAFs
for this afternoon to account for this possibility. Otherwise,
cigs will remain mainly in the MVFR to possibly IFR categories
as plenty of showers and low clouds will prevail. Winds will be
mainly SE 5-15 kt. A few gusts around 20 kt cannot be ruled out
during the daytime.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden