Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1108 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected once
  again on Tuesday, mainly in southeast Wyoming this time.

- All severe hazards including isolated tornadoes are possible
  today, but large, damaging hail remains the primary concern.

- Confidence is lower in strong to severe storms surviving into
  western Nebraska today due to a strong capping inversion.

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Wednesday through Thursday. Storms will have the potential to
  become strong to severe once again.

- Thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday will also increase the
  flash flood potential, particularly over recent burn areas.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds
  will increase fire weather concerns Saturday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Another active day is on track for the area today as our stormy
weather pattern continues. Last night, a moisture laden surface high
pressure system surged westward across the area. Higher dewpoints
have slipped west of the Laramie range, though a modest boundary is
still apparent near the terrain. Further east, this cooler airmass
has resulted in a very strong capping inversion setting up, with
satellite imagery showing broken low cloud coverage holding strong
northeast of a Wheatland to Pine Bluffs line. The cap has mostly
broken down in Carbon and Albany counties by now, but it is
still present in Laramie and Platte counties. Areas that are
sunny now are expected to erode the cap over the next few hours,
but those still in cloud cover may struggle to become uncapped
at anytime this afternoon or evening. A modest jet streak
remains overhead on the southwest flank of an upper level low
well to our northeast. This is continuing to produce strong deep
layer shear across the area, exceeding 50 knots in the 0-6km
layer. Instability is a little weaker today compared to
yesterday, with MLCAPE currently around 500 to 1000 J/kg
expected to increase to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg by late
afternoon. Overall, this sets the state for another round of
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today, but the risk
area will be shifted to the south and west of where it has been
the last few days.

Cumulus clouds are already going up in Albany and western Laramie
counties as of this writing. This activity will make up the first
round of thunderstorms, expected to primarily impact these two
counties between now and 6PM or so. This may extend into southern
Platte/Goshen counties as well as the southern panhandle, but there
is lower confidence in storms surviving that far due to the strong
capping inversion in place. Meanwhile, a second round is expected to
initiate between about 4 and 6PM generally in northern Carbon county
along the stalled moisture boundary in the area. This round will
have the potential to develop into a longer track, discrete
supercell thunderstorm and track to the east or southeast through
the evening hours. Again, we should see this activity begin to
weaken or struggle east of the I-25 corridor, and in particular,
into western Nebraska. The primary hazards remain large, damaging
hail especially with any discrete supercell thunderstorms that
manage to develop. However, all severe hazards, including a few
isolated tornadoes remain possible. Low-level wind shear is fairly
weak right now, but this is expected to increase later this
afternoon and evening with today's moisture return surging the
stalled frontal boundary back to the south and west.

There is some concern for nocturnal, elevated convective activity
tonight. Hi-res models are not showing this, but they traditionally
struggle with this type of hazard. Overrunning lift on top of the
frontal boundary will be occurring through about 4AM in place of
elevated instability. Therefore, we are maintaining 20 to 40% PoPs
through the overnight period once again. Tonight's fog will probably
be fairly widespread with the strong moisture return. This was added
to the official forecast. Confidence is too low for any Dense Fog
Advisories now due to uncertainty in the exact location of the fog,
but we will need to monitor this overnight.

Wednesday looks like another active day across the area. Following
tonight's moisture surge, east to southeast flow will be present
over the High Plains with plentiful low-level moisture pushing
dewpoints into the 50s to low 60s. A vort-max will push in from the
west over the top of an upper level ridge near the US/Mexico border.
This feature will pull in abundant Pacific moisture in a pseudo-
monsoonal surge. The combination of moisture from both sources will
push precipitable water well above the 90th percentile of
climatology, and even close to the 99th percentile. Low-level
capping will be a concern once again over the High Plains tomorrow,
but we are still expecting fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms to kick off early afternoon and spread eastward
through the evening. Strong shear will remain in place Wednesday,
supporting the potential for a few storms to become strong to
severe. Expect much higher coverage of thunderstorms overall, but a
similar risk for severe weather as not all of the storms will be
strong to severe. Tomorrow will also add localized flash flooding
back into the forecast due to the plentiful moisture and potential
for multiple rounds of thunderstorms. The South Fork fire burn area
is of particular concern. Forcing for lift will continue all through
the night, which will likely keep a few showers and storms on the
radar all the way into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Thursday...Westerly flow aloft continues, and with surface low
pressure developing over south central Wyoming producing a
convergence axis from Douglas to Laramie, and plenty of low and mid
level moisture, and 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis from Casper to
Cheyenne, along with CAPE of 1000 to 1800 J/kg and bulk shear near
50 knots, we anticipate some storms to become severe, with large
hail and damaging winds as the primary threats east of I-25, with
some locally heavy rainers due to flow aloft.

Friday...Low amplitude ridging develops over our forecast area, with
some drier air noted advecting in. However, still expect isolated to
widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms to form along a
low level convergence axis along the I-25 corridor. A few strong and
possibly severe storms may occur.

Saturday...The flow aloft turns southwest and increases in speed,
with considerably drier air moving across our counties, producing a
dry day with a warming trend as 700 mb temperatures spike near 19
Celsius.

Sunday through Tuesday...A broad trough aloft develops across the
northern and central Rockies, with dry southwest flow aloft, leading
to only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms at most in the
afternoons and evening. Slightly cooler compared to Saturday in
the wake of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Low clouds look to develop overnight but unsure if any fog will
develop with the low clouds as well. But the low clouds should
burn off around 15z tomorrow. And then we can start this all
over again with storms around 21z for our Wyoming terminals and
around 01z for our Nebraska Terminals. While the severe threat
will probably end around 04z almost all the models have light to
moderate rain showers through the overnight period tomorrow and
into Thursday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
625 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

WYZ103>105-240100-
Shirley Basin WY-North Laramie Range WY-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains WY-
625 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CARBON...NORTH
CENTRAL ALBANY AND SOUTHERN CONVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 625 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shirley Basin, or 37 miles south of Casper, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shirley Basin, Curtis Gulch Campground, Windy Peak, and Garrett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
south central and southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 10652 4242 10649 4244 10554 4200 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 268DEG 47KT 4231 10618

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Goatley

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
626 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 S Shirley Basin      42.18N 106.23W
06/23/2026  M66 MPH          Carbon             WY   Mesonet

            Lightning was reported in the vicinity at
            the time of the observation.

&&

NB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
633 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

WYZ115>117-240100-
South Laramie Range WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
Laramie Valley WY-
633 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 633 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
The Buttes, or 7 miles southeast of Laramie, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laramie, West Laramie, Happy Valley, Federal, Table Mountain Ranches,
Willadsen Estates, Rocking Star Ranch, Silver Sage Estates, Rogers
Canyon, Granite Canon, Boulder Ridge, Tie Siding, Pumpkin Vine,
Vedauwoo Campground, North Crow Campground, Ames Monument, The
Buttes, Curt Gowdy State Park, Yellow Pine Campground, and Tie City
Campground.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 309 and
354.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 10563 4138 10496 4100 10495 4100 10578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 268DEG 42KT 4121 10551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Goatley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
748 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

WYZ118-119-240215-
Central Laramie County WY-East Laramie County WY-
748 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY
THROUGH 815 PM MDT...

At 748 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Whitaker, or 19 miles northeast of Cheyenne, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Albin, Gun Barrel, and Meriden Rest Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4132 10484 4153 10482 4156 10409 4120 10410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 272DEG 32KT 4141 10464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Goatley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1207 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

NEZ020-054-WYZ117>119-240700-
Kimball NE-Banner NE-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-East Laramie County WY-
1207 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KIMBALL...SOUTHERN BANNER AND
SOUTHERN LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM MDT...

At 1206 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Albin to North Cheyenne.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail
         damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Kimball, Pine Bluffs, Burns, Dix, Albin, Bushnell, Rocking
Star Ranch, Silver Sage Estates, Egbert, Fox Farm-College, Cheyenne
Regional Airport, Panorama Point, Ranchettes, Oliver Reservoir,
Warren AFB, Frontier Park, Pine Bluffs Municipal Airport, North
Cheyenne, and Laramie County Fairgrounds at Archer.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 10 and 21.
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 361 and 402.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 1 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4124 10508 4150 10391 4143 10339 4100 10339
      4100 10462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 295DEG 44KT 4145 10393 4120 10497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Trudel