Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Caribou, ME

568 
WWUS51 KCAR 221928
SVSCAR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
328 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

MEC021-221938-
/O.EXP.KCAR.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260722T1930Z/
Piscataquis ME-
328 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 4574 6979 4577 6978 4575 6976 4576 6973
      4584 6970 4588 6971 4585 6968 4586 6966
      4586 6965 4596 6968 4620 6944 4574 6928
      4567 6947 4561 6969 4564 6971 4565 6970
      4566 6974 4567 6974 4569 6978 4574 6981
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 217DEG 40KT 4637 6944 4616 6941 4599 6959 

$$

ASB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
559 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 6 AM Update to Aviation section with updates associated with
  the 12z TAFs

- High Surf Advisory issued for coastal Hancock and Washington
  counties today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There is a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible which could lead to
minor urban flooding.

2) Dangerous rip currents and high surf along the Downeast
coast today.

3) Potential for a system moving in early next week, bringing
another round of wetting rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible which could
lead to minor urban flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system approaches from the west today. Frontal
passage is anticipated early this morning as a warm front lifts
over the area, leaving northern and eastern Maine in the warm
sector of the system. Ample moisture moves in along frontal
boundary, with PWATs in the 1-2 inch range. Generally looking
at higher rainfall totals along the Downeast coast, with the
coast receiving around 1  1.4 inches. Roughly 0.5  1 inches in
Central Highlands and northern Maine.

There is a chance for some thunderstorms to move through in the
north and Central Highlands/Upper Penobscot Valley regions, as
the associated cold front with the system moves through this
afternoon into evening. CAMs are picking up on some CAPE, DCAPE,
decent shear parameters, low-level lapse rates, and low CIN.
Skies will be mostly overcast throughout the area, however,
which could cause a damper in convection. North Woods and
Aroostook region seems to have the best potential for
convection, especially if there is any bit of clearing in the
cloud cover. That being said, instability does exist throughout
northern and eastern Maine, and any location with some sky
clearing and along the front (which will move from west to east
during the afternoon), could see some developing storms. There
is also a potential for some, albeit light, Canadian wildfire
smoke to move in along thew cold front boundary, which would
also cause less convection. Greatest threats for these storms
will be lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Heavy rainfall
could result in localized urban/poor-drainage flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous rip currents and high surf along the
Downeast coast today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Unusually rough seas by late July standards are expected to
peak today. This is usually the quietest time of year on the
waters, but seas in the neighborhood of 6-9 feet are expected up
to the coastline, with a 9-10 second period swell from the
south. People along the coast should exercise caution if
recreating. Water temperatures in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a system moving in early next
week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A ridge of high pressure will crest over the forecast area this
weekend, and during this time temperatures could build to
slightly above seasonal averages with highs in the low to mid
80s. By Monday next week, another shortwave may approach from
the west, bringing the next round of moisture into the area that
could charge the atmosphere for more rainfall across the CWA.
Recent guidance suggests the bulk of the instability with this
system will hold off until Tuesday at the earliest, where more
CAPE could lead to the development of some thunderstorms. More
moisture on Tuesday may also support more efficient rain
processes.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today...MVFR/IFR in low cigs from rain showers. Winds generally
S/SE, at 10 to 15 kts. Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon
north of coastal terminals. Expecting seabreeze to keep KBHB
out of convection. Thunderstorms could reduce visibility and
have gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Tonight...Rain and thunderstorms dissipate by dusk, and then
VFR conditions. SW winds in the north, and W winds Downeast, at
5 to 10 kts.

Thursday...VFR conditions. W winds at 10 to 15 kts.

Friday - Sunday...VFR conditions continue across all terminals.
SW winds shifting S 5 to 10 kts through the weekend, becoming
light and variable each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions over intra-coastals and coastal
waters today into tonight. Wave heights reach their peak
tonight, roughly 6-9 ft. High Surf Advisory along the coastline,
due to elevated rip risk and rough seas. Some fog and rain
showers early this morning. Chance for some fog on eastern
waters Thursday morning. S winds today, shifting W by Thursday.

Winds and seas decrease below small craft advisory conditions
across all waters Friday through the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
140 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

MEZ003-004-221830-
Northern Piscataquis ME-Northern Somerset ME-
140 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PISCATAQUIS AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 139 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Seboomook, or 33 miles west of Ripogenus, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chamberlain Lake, Caucomgomoc Lake, Tamway, and Chesuncook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4649 6961 4628 6917 4597 6967 4598 6969
      4598 6979 4597 6993 4604 7004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 221DEG 33KT 4603 6984

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
207 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

MEZ001-221845-
Northwest Aroostook ME-
207 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Saint Pamphile, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Allagash Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4745 6914 4743 6911 4742 6908 4743 6906
      4743 6904 4741 6903 4738 6905 4726 6905
      4724 6903 4720 6894 4690 6954 4702 6968
      4746 6922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 229DEG 37KT 4703 6954

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARL