Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

307 
WWUS41 KBUF 130527
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

NYZ006>008-131815-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.260313T1500Z-260314T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
127 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 
2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 10 to 18 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  will impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds will down tree 
  branches and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-131815-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.260313T2100Z-260314T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
127 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 
AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 7 inches 
  across the higher terrain. 1 to 2 inches expected for the lower 
  elevations. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will produce blowing 
  and drifting snow, mainly overnight when temperatures fall into 
  the 20s.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. Impacts will be after the 
  evening commute. Strong winds will cause tree damage and possible 
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JM

897 
WWUS41 KBUF 131750
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

NYZ012-020-085-140700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.260313T2100Z-260314T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.W.0005.260313T2100Z-260314T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, and
Springville
150 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM 
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 to 10 
  inches. Winds gusting 50 to 60 mph will produce areas of blowing 
  snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. The 
  highest snowfall amounts are expected across Wyoming County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce 
  visibility. Strong winds will cause scattered instances of tree 
  damage and power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snowfall amounts are expected 
  across the ridgetops of Wyoming County, with slightly lower 
  snowfall totals across the surrounding hilltops in Southern Erie 
  and northern Cattaraugus counties. Significantly lower 
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected at the lower elevations of 
  Southern Erie County, including the Buffalo Southtowns, and across 
  southern Cattaraugus County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel 
conditions, particularly at the higher elevations.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-140700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
150 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 10 to 18 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph producing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  will impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds will down tree 
  branches and cause isolated power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The greatest accumulations are expected 
  across the Tug Hill Plateau. Significantly lower accumulations are 
  expected across the surrounding lower elevations, with 3 to 5 
  inches of total snowfall expected in areas such as Watertown and 
  Oswego.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions, 
especially at the higher elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario 
region.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-140700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.260313T2100Z-260314T1500Z/
Allegany-
Including the cities of Wellsville
150 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 
AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 7 inches 
  across the northwestern portion of the county. Winds gusting as 
  high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Allegany County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will 
  impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds will down tree 
  branches and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-140700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.260313T2100Z-260314T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the cities of Jamestown
150 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS 
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will produce patchy blowing snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. Strong winds with blowing snow 
  will limit visibilities at times and cause instances of tree 
  damage and power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

PP

326 
WWUS41 KBUF 140611
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

NYZ006>008-141800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
211 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will produce areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The highest accumulations 
  are expected across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The greatest accumulations are expected 
  across the Tug Hill Plateau. Significantly lower accumulations are 
  expected across the surrounding lower elevations, with 3 to 5 
  inches of total snowfall expected in areas such as Watertown and 
  Oswego.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-085-141500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, and
Springville
211 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 65 mph will produce areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities will occasionally drop below 1/4 mile due 
  to falling and blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snowfall amounts are expected 
  across the ridgetops of Wyoming County, with slightly lower 
  snowfall totals across the surrounding hilltops in Southern Erie 
  and northern Cattaraugus counties. Significantly lower 
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected at the lower elevations of 
  Southern Erie County, including the Buffalo Southtowns, and across 
  southern Cattaraugus County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-141200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260314T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the cities of Jamestown
211 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 65 mph will produce patchy blowing snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua County.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow 
  will significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snowfall amounts will be found across 
  the Chautauqua Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-141500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Allegany-
Including the cities of Wellsville
211 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 1-3 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 45 mph will produce patchy blowing snow.

* WHERE...Allegany County.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Strong winds will 
  cause extensive tree damage and power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest amounts will be found across 
  northwestern portions of the county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JM

941 
WWUS41 KBUF 141139
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
739 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

NYZ019-141245-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260314T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the cities of Jamestown
739 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Only lingering isolated snow showers with minimal accumulations 
remain this morning across far southwest New York, therefore the 
Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

NYZ006>008-141800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
739 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 6 to 12 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will produce areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The highest accumulations 
  are expected across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The greatest accumulations are expected 
  across the Tug Hill Plateau. Significantly lower accumulations are 
  expected across the surrounding lower elevations, with 3 to 5 
  inches of total snowfall expected in areas such as Watertown and 
  Oswego.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions, 
especially at the higher elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario 
region.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-085-141500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, and
Springville
739 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 55 mph will produce areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. The 
  highest snowfall amounts are expected across Wyoming County.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities will occasionally drop below 1/4 mile due 
  to falling and blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snowfall amounts are expected 
  across the ridgetops of Wyoming County, with slightly lower 
  snowfall totals across the surrounding hilltops in Southern Erie 
  and northern Cattaraugus counties. Significantly lower 
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected at the lower elevations of 
  Southern Erie County, including the Buffalo Southtowns, and across 
  southern Cattaraugus County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel 
conditions, particularly at the higher elevations.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-141500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Allegany-
Including the cities of Wellsville
739 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations an inch or less. Winds 
  gusting as high as 45 mph will produce patchy blowing snow.

* WHERE...Allegany County.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds will down 
  tree branches and cause isolated power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest amounts will be found across 
  northwestern portions of the county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Brothers

285 
WWUS41 KBUF 141407
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1007 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

NYZ012-020-085-141515-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, and
Springville
1007 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat of significant snow accumulations and blowing snow has 
ended, therefore the Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled. 
Lingering light snow showers may continue through the morning.

$$

NYZ021-141515-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-260314T1500Z/
Allegany-
Including the cities of Wellsville
1007 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat of accumulating snow has ended, therefore the Winter 
Weather Advisory has been cancelled. Lingering light snow showers 
may continue through the morning.

$$

NYZ006>008-141800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1007 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will produce areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The highest accumulations 
  are expected across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions, 
especially at the higher elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario 
region.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Brothers

312 
WWUS41 KBUF 141741
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
141 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

NYZ006>008-141845-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260314T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
141 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Snow continues early this afternoon across north-central New York, 
but will continue to diminish over the next few hours and 
significant accumulations are no longer expected, therefore the 
Winter Storm Warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

Brothers

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
550 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A High Wind Watch is in effect for Chautauqua County Friday through
Friday evening.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego
counties, specifically the Tug Hill Friday through Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler weather, with scattered snow showers and gusty winds are
expected today.

2) Impactful snow possible for the Eastern Lake Ontario region late
Friday morning through Saturday afternoon, especially over the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks.

3. Windy conditions Friday through much of Saturday, with the
strongest winds expected from Finger Lakes region westward.

4) Active pattern continues late this weekend into the first part of
next week as another dynamic system brings the possibility for rain,
snow, and strong winds, along with a return to winter-like
temperatures for western and northcentral NY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler weather, with scattered snow showers and
gusty winds are expected today.

An upper level trough centered over the Upper Great Lakes region and
Mid-West early this morning will move across the eastern Great Lakes
region today. A surface low is located over southern Quebec with an
associated cold front just east of the forecast area. Cold air advection
and drier air are moving into the region from west to east this
morning. Lingering showers will change to snow showers across
western NY this morning, however little to no accumulation is
expected.

Cold air aloft with 850mb temperatures around -11C will move across
the region today. Much cooler weather is expected today with
temperatures in the 20s to low 30s around daybreak, and highs in the
low to mid 30s, 20s on the Tug Hill. Low-level lapse rates and an
uptick in upstream moisture will support widely scattered snow
showers across western NY this afternoon. No accumulation is
expected.

A broad area of 30-40 knots between 925-850mb will reside across the
region this morning. Cold air advection and steepening lapse rates
will support gusty, northwest winds 30 to 40 mph this morning, with
the highest gusts near the lakeshores. Winds will diminish through
the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Impactful snow possible for the Eastern Lake Ontario
region late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon, especially
over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
Adirondacks.

A compact, but strong surface low will track from the western Great
Lakes Friday morning to far southern Quebec by Saturday morning
bringing another round of precipitation. Precipitation will quickly
overspread the area through the first half of Friday morning,
starting off as a low impact wet snow across much of western NY,
however warming temperatures will force a changeover to rain across
the lower elevations, with a rain/snow mix possible across the
higher terrain as surface temperatures climb well into the 30s and
even some lower 40s. As the main precip shield moves into the
Eastern Lake Ontario region later Friday morning into the afternoon,
expect snow to start there as well, mixing with or changing over to
rain across the lower elevations during the afternoon, with p-type
remaining all snow across the Tug Hill and western Dacks where
several or more inches may accumulate by late in the day. A cold
front will move east across the area late Friday and Friday evening
with another shot of colder air moving in behind the front. 850mb
temps will fall into the -10C to -12C range Friday night. Wraparound
moisture will help contribute to lake enhanced and upslope snows
east of Lake Ontario, with an additional several or more inches
possible across the Tug Hill and western Dacks Friday night through
early Saturday afternoon before tapering off as the low pulls away
from the region. Much lesser snow amounts are expected across the
lower elevations east of Lake Ontario, with only minor accumulations
expected elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off Saturday as deeper
moisture is stripped away, with minor additional accumulations
possible east of Lake Ontario. With impactful snows expected across
the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, a Winter Storm Watch has
been issued for Lewis, Jefferson, and Oswego counties from Friday
morning through Saturday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Windy conditions Friday through much of Saturday,
with the strongest winds expected from Finger Lakes region westward.

A compact, but strong surface low will track from the western Great
Lakes Friday morning to far southern Quebec by Saturday morning
bringing another round of strong winds. This system will drag a very
strong 70 knot+ LLJ over the Ohio Valley and western Lake Erie basin
by daybreak Friday, then into far western NY Friday morning. Of
note, the system will weaken as it moves out of the western Great
Lakes to far southern Quebec, leading to a weakening of the LLJ some
10-15 knots, as well as being within the WAA regime in advance of
the system's cold front. Through Friday morning and potentially into
the early afternoon, this should limit the magnitude of the
strongest gusts. The exception will be over the typical downslope
areas off the Chautauqua Ridge, where some localized warning level
gusts look possible closer to the Lake Erie shoreline in Chautauqua
County. Near warning level WSW to W gusts look possible just east of
the lake Friday afternoon into Friday night in the CAA regime in the
wake of the cold front. With this in mind, a High Wind Watch has
been issued for Chautauqua County from Friday morning through late
Friday night.

Once the cold front moves east through western NY mid to late
afternoon, winds will become southwesterly while the residual LLJ
remains overhead. Now within the CAA regime, deeper mixing will
occur and funneling down the long axis of Lake Erie may lead to a
period of 40-50 mph+ gusts across the Niagara Frontier and east of
Lake Erie (especially immediately east of the lake and across the
hilltops). As the LLJ continues to slowly weaken Friday night, it
may still be strong enough to produce some 45+ mph gusts immediately
downwind of Lake Ontario as it slides further east. The LLJ will
slide east Saturday with winds gradually coming down through the
day.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Active pattern continues late this weekend into the
first part of next week as another dynamic system brings the
possibility for rain, snow, and strong winds, along with a return to
winter-like temperatures for western and northcentral NY.

As the active pattern continues across the northern CONUS, a stronger
push of colder air will dig a deeper, larger scale trough across the
eastern half of the CONUS for the start of the new work week. This
larger scale system will have an expansive warm sector with a deep,
warming southerly flow that will drive temperatures back above
normal Sunday as the warm front lifts north with a swath of
precipitation along and ahead of the boundary. Additional
precipitation will accompany the system's cold front on Monday, with
areas of lake effect snow showers developing under a cold west to
northwest flow in the system's wake as 850mb temperatures plummet
down into the -15C to -20C range (very cold for this point in the
season). Latest model consensus continues to show a very strong LLJ
associated with a deepening surface low moving north-northeast from
eastern Michigan Sunday night into central Quebec Monday night that
will need to be monitored for strong wind potential. Plenty of
uncertainty remains with regard to the track of this system, which
will have ramifications to p-type and strength of the winds across
the area for Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front has moved east of the region this morning. A few
snow showers are possible this morning. MVFR conditions will
continue across a majority of the region with IFR conditions
across the higher terrain today. IFR conditions across the
higher terrain is expected to improve to MVFR later this
morning.

Cold air advection and steepening low level lapse rates will support
gusty, northwest winds today. Wind gusts up to 40 knots are possible
near the lakeshores this morning. Winds will diminish this afternoon
into tonight. Widely scattered snow showers may develop across
western NY today. A brief reduction in visibility is possible,
however confidence is low.

Outlook...

Friday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with snow developing and then changing to
rain across lower elevations. Windy.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a snow showers. Windy.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with snow changing to rain. Windy.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain changing to snow. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure is located across southern Quebec this morning, with a
strong cold front near the Hudson River. Strong, westerly winds will
continue on the Lakes, with Gales on Lake Ontario this morning.
Winds will gradually diminish later today.

A series of Low pressure systems will cross the Great Lakes Friday
through early next week, with multiple rounds of Gale Force winds.
Please note, most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of three quarters of an inch to an inch and
a half were observed over the last 24 hours. Additional rain
amounts of less than a tenth of an inch are expected this
morning. Warmer weather over the last few days has resulted in
snow melt, with a deep snow pack in place across the Black River
basin. Significant snowpack and SWE remains across the higher
terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks.

Rivers will continue to rise east of Lake Ontario from ongoing
snowmelt and rainfall. The Black River will likely flood
starting today, with flooding continuing through the weekend on
this slow responding river. The latest forecast shows the Black
River at Watertown reaching the high end of Minor Flood Stage,
but moderate stage is possible by the weekend, which would
result in more significant impacts.

Flooding is also possible on many other rivers that drain the
Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks tonight through the
end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ006>008.
     Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ007-008.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
     for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from noon Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
         for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
         for LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

DISCUSSION...HSK/JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock/HSK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

NYZ007-008-130900-
Jefferson-Lewis-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Winds may gust over 40 mph tonight behind a strong cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Another period of strong winds are possible later Friday afternoon
through Friday night, with gusts over 45 mph possible.

Accumulating snow is expected across the Tug Hill Plateau and
western Adirondacks Friday through Saturday morning with moderate
accumulations possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-130900-
Oswego-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The risk of flooding along rivers and creeks that drain the Tug Hill
Plateau will continue today, with high flows then lasting through
next weekend.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Another period of strong winds are possible later Friday afternoon
through Friday night, with gusts over 45 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-010>014-020-021-085-130900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another period of strong winds are possible later Friday through
Friday night, with gusts over 45 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-130900-
Chautauqua-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

Another period of strong winds are possible later Friday through
Friday night, with gusts over 45 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-130900-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-130900-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-130900-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-130900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-130900-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
454 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf