Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Buffalo, NY

807 
WHUS71 KBUF 280702
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

LOZ044-281600-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.260428T1000Z-260429T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-281600-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.260428T1000Z-260429T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-281600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260428T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
302 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

932 
WHUS71 KBUF 281321
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
921 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

LEZ040-041-282100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260428T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
921 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-282130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260429T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
921 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-282130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260429T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
921 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

061 
WHUS71 KBUF 282101
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
501 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

LEZ040-041-282215-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260428T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
501 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds and waves will continue to diminish this evening.

$$

LOZ044-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260429T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
501 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-290515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260429T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
501 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

532 
WHUS71 KBUF 282341
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
741 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

LOZ044-290045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260429T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
741 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will continue to diminish overnight.

$$

LOZ045-290600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260429T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
741 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

143 
WHUS71 KBUF 290123
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
923 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

LOZ045-290230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260429T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
923 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will continue to diminish overnight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
230 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Wind advisory issued for the southern two tiers of counties from 11
pm tonight through 11 am Tuesday.

SPS issued for Lewis County for near critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday for the Adirondack zone.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Gusty southeast winds develop tonight.

2) Unsettled Tuesday - Wednesday night creating stream and creek
rises and low lying ponding of water.

3) Cool for the end of the week and into the weekend with prospects
for frost as well as a few snowflakes for the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty southeast winds develop tonight.

Behind a departing area of high pressure, and deepening surface low
over Lake Superior, a strengthening 50 to 55 knot LLJ will develop
tonight, with a base around 2K feet. This jet, within a tightening
surface pressure gradient will promote hill top gusty winds as well
as southeast downslope winds to accelerate to the lee of our higher
terrain.

Gusts could reach 50 mph, not only in the traditional downslope
Chautauqua Ridge to the Lake Erie shoreline for Chautauqua County
and far southern Erie County...but also across higher terrain of the
inland Southern Tier, hills of Wyoming County and towards the
Bristol Hills.

Will issue a wind advisory starting 11 pm tonight and run it through
11 am Tuesday...with the strongest wind gusts likely the second half
of tonight and before the showers begin Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled Tuesday - Wednesday creating small stream
and creek rises and low lying ponding of water.

A cold front will pass across our region Tuesday, this from the
deepening surface low over Lake Superior and central Ontario Canada.
Moisture advancing northward along this front from the Gulf will
fuel showers along the front. The axis of deep instability will
likely remain over the Ohio Valley tomorrow, but we could see enough
MUCAPE of just a few hundred J/KG sneak into our region to generate
a few rumbles of thunder.

Though basin average rain is likely to remain a quarter of an inch
or less with this activity, the convective nature of this
precipitation could allow for localized higher amounts of rain.

Behind this front there will likely be a period of fair weather,
through much of Tuesday afternoon and early evening...with little to
no rainfall.

A second surface low will advance from the Ohio Valley and to the
mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. There will be a bit more of a
southeast flow in the mid levels with this system...taping into both
Gulf and Atlantic moisture. This will bring Pwats upwards towards an
inch, and with a greater duration of lift from warm conveyor belt
properties and right entrance region of an upper level jet,
precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night will likely be greater
than Tuesday, with basin rainfall amounts averaging between 1.0 and
1.5 inches.

This rain may push (or climb higher up the list) all three of our
climate sites (Buffalo, Rochester, Watertown) into a top 10 wettest
Aprils on record as well as nearing or even surpassing the wettest
March-April combo on record.

This rain onto the already saturated soils will give rise to near
bankfull for small streams and creeks as well as create more ponding
of water in poor drainage and low lying spots. The river center does
highlight a few of our larger creeks and rivers rising to action
stage, highlighting the Niagara Frontier and Genesee Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cool for the end of the week and into the weekend
with prospects for frost as well as a few snowflakes for the higher
terrain.

Following the mid week system an upper level low that resided near
James Bay to begin the week will rotate southeastward over our
region. A much cooler airmass will accompany the low, with 850 hPa
temperatures dropping towards -6C by the weekend...which lies within
the bottom 10 percent of values measured by the Buffalo sounding
climatology.

Temperatures will only manage to peak into the upper 40s and lower
50s, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal, Thursday through
Sunday...and if any clearing develops at night there will be
potential for frost and or freezing conditions. For all counties
outside of Cattaraugus, Allegany, Jefferson and Lewis...the frost-
freeze program begins on May 1st.

Additionally, though not much precipitation is expected with this
bout of cold air...it will become cold enough aloft to support a few
snow showers, especially for the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue across the region through
tonight. Ceilings will lower to 3-5k as rain showers cross western
NY Tuesday morning. Showers may produce a brief period of MVFR/IFR
across western NY during this time. Flight conditions will lower to
MVFR across far western NY by late morning with low-end VFR
conditions continuing east of the Genesee Valley through the
afternoon.

South to southeast winds will increase across region tonight through
Tuesday morning, then taper off Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds are
expected with the strongest gusts along the Lake Erie shoreline
including KDKK and across the hilltops of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes. There could be a brief period of LLWS late
tonight/early Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...IFR/MVFR with scattered rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR, with an isolated rain or overnight
wet snow shower.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southeast winds will freshen on the Lakes tonight, with the
highest waves well offshore. Small Craft conditions will begin on
Lake Erie this evening, and likely begin across the eastern end of
Lake Ontario late tonight. Winds will weaken Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night.

An area of low pressure will move from the Tennessee Valley to the
Northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. North to northwest
winds will increase behind this system and another round of small
craft conditions are possible through much of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The combination of dry fine fuels, south to southeast wind gusts
up to 30 to 35 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 25 to
35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread
tomorrow for Lewis County. This concern will remain through the
late afternoon hours of Tuesday, at which time rising RH values
as well as diminishing wind gusts and the increasing potential
for rain showers will end the near critical fire weather
condition. After this, widespread rain Wednesday and much cooler
conditions through the end of the week will keep fire weather
concerns low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
FIRE WEATHER...Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1257 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

NYZ001>008-010-011-281700-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
1257 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-281700-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
1257 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-281700-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1257 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
222 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

NYZ008-281100-
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
222 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...

The combination of dry fine fuels, south to southeast wind gusts
up to 30 to 35 mph, and relative humidity values as low as 25 to
35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread
tomorrow for Lewis County.

As a reminder, the annual statewide burn ban remains in effect
until May 14. No burn permits are issued. Use extra caution if
handling any potential ignition sources such as machinery or
matches and ensure to properly extinguish or dispose of cigarette
butts. Please refer to the New York State Department of
Environmental Conservation website for more information on burn
restrictions.

Thomas