Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2026
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 21, 2026, 7:58 PM EDT for Ontario County, New York. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2026, 7:58 PM EDT (23:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 2026, 8:29 PM EDT
- In force
- 31 min
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Tornado
- Possible
- Hail
- 0.75 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
County Ontario County, NY
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 300 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -122 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1133 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 162 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.7
The text
As transmitted.
191
WUUS51 KBUF 212358
SVRBUF
NYC069-220045-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0086.260721T2358Z-260722T0045Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
758 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
East central Ontario County in western New York...
* Until 845 PM EDT.
* At 757 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Canandaigua,
moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Canandaigua, Bloomfield, Rushville, Gorham, Seneca Castle,
Seneca Lake State Park, Cheshire, Cottage City, and Hall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 4276 7739 4290 7741 4295 7697 4287 7696
4287 7698 4286 7698 4284 7697 4276 7697
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 266DEG 31KT 4282 7730
TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
$$
Fries2 follow-up statements
616
WWUS51 KBUF 220013
SVSBUF
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
813 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
NYC069-220045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260722T0045Z/
Ontario NY-
813 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO COUNTY...
At 812 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ferguson
Corners, or 7 miles southeast of Canandaigua, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Gorham, Seneca Castle, Seneca Lake State Park, and Hall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 4280 7722 4291 7720 4295 7697 4287 7696
4287 7698 4286 7698 4284 7697 4277 7697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 262DEG 28KT 4284 7714
TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
$$
Fries887
WWUS51 KBUF 220029
SVSBUF
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
829 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
NYC069-220039-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-260722T0045Z/
Ontario NY-
829 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.
&&
LAT...LON 4280 7722 4291 7720 4295 7697 4287 7696
4287 7698 4286 7698 4284 7697 4277 7697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 266DEG 31KT 4285 7694
$$
FriesWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 21, 1:22 PM EDT, 6 hours 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue through this evening with strong winds as the main hazard. 2) Cool Wednesday, with a chance of lingering showers ahead of a gradual warm up through the remainder of the week.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 1:22 PM EDT, 6 hours 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
122 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue through this
evening with strong winds as the main hazard.
2) Cool Wednesday, with a chance of lingering showers ahead of
a gradual warm up through the remainder of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue
through this evening with strong winds as the main hazard.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon have spread
across the Lake Ontario region on both sides of the international
border associated with a compact shortwave noted on GOES WV imagery
lifting just north of Toronto. This is all while earlier storms
across the Southern Tier outran the axis of strongest instability
leading to a swath of stratiform precipitation lingering.
Regardless, severe thunderstorms were still observed this morning
with gusty winds leading to downed trees and small hail reported.
Clearing skies moving into western NY early this afternoon per GOES
satellite imagery will help potentially refuel the atmosphere for
the next round of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Ongoing development in eastern MI and southwestern ON within an area
of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40 kt of bulk shear closer to the cold
front will be worth monitoring as it moves east towards western NY
later this afternoon into early this evening. Additionally,
southwestward expansion of the ongoing convection near Toronto along
the prefrontal trough associated with the aforementioned
shortwave will also need close monitoring as atmospheric
destabilization continues. These storms will progress eastward
across western and north-central NY through the afternoon and
evening.
Strong winds and heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary
hazard with these storms. PWAT value reported from the KBUF 12z
sounding was 1.50" and warm cloud depths exceed 10 kft. However,
fast storm motions and line normal motions, as observed with earlier
storms, would limit heavy rainfall durations. Additionally, the
highest DCAPE values remain in southwestern ON and will be less than
what was analyzed earlier across the Niagara Frontier around the
time of severe wind damage reported.
Headed into late this evening, lingering showers and a few rumbles
of thunder may continue until the cold front passes through western
NY around midnight and early Wednesday morning for north-central NY.
Key Message 2...Cool Wednesday, with a chance of lingering
showers ahead of a gradual warm up through the remainder of the
week.
Cooler weather is expected Wednesday as the upper level low begins
to exit to the northeast. With 850mb temps dropping around 6-8 degC,
afternoon highs will struggle to reach 70 degF as most locations
will be around 10 degF below normal for late July. Additionally, a
secondary shortwave will round the backside of the departing low,
supporting scattered showers along with the cooler air aloft and
steep low-level lapse rates extending inland from the lakes under
west-northwest flow. High pressure will begin to build into the
lower Great Lakes late Wednesday through the remainder of the week
leading to drier weather and gradually warming temperatures
back towards slightly above normal this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon and into this evening with the passage of both a warm
front lifting north, followed by a cold front sliding east. This
being said, a conglomeration of flight conditions will continue
through this evening, with an improving trend overnight into
Wednesday. From the round of showers that just impacted the western
3 terminals (KIAG, KBUF and KJHW), expect these showers and embedded
thunderstorms continue east into KROC within the hour, and reach
KART a couple of hours later. Another line of showers is on our
western doorstep as of 17Z, which will bring more showers and
thunder early this afternoon. Additional, showers are then expected
late this afternoon and into the evening with the arrival of the
cold front.
This all being said, there is a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
through this evening, where some of the thunderstorms will be
capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and torrential
rain. Both visibilities and ceilings restrictions can be possible
at times.
Otherwise, ahead of the cold frontal passage's arrival it will be
breezy, with a 20-30 knot south-southwest wind gusts, especially for
KIAG and KBUF this afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Restrictions likely with lingering showers/isolated
thunderstorms.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds gusting around 30 kt over Lake Erie and western Lake
Ontario will continue through this afternoon while winds over
eastern Lake Ontario will veer to the southwest. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue throughout the day with multiple rounds
ahead of a cold frontal passage late tonight. Behind the front,
winds will turn to be out of the west-northwest and increase once
again, especially across Lake Ontario, headed into Wednesday. Small
Craft Advisory continues for Lake Erie through tonight and for
portions of Lake Ontario through Wednesday evening. Calmer waters
are expected late this week into early this weekend as high pressure
builds into the lower Great Lakes.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-
041.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for
LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ045.
&&
DISCUSSION...Brothers
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...BrothersHazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 1:28 PM EDT, 6 hours 30 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-221730- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Strong winds are the primary hazard while heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-221730- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Strong winds are the primary hazard resulting in higher waves. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 21, 3:46 PM EDT, 4 hours 12 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0224 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 W Niagara Falls 43.09N 79.05W
07/21/2026 Niagara NY 911 Call Center
Numerous trees down in the city of Niagara
Falls. Time estimated based on radar.
0227 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 WNW Ransomville 43.25N 78.96W
07/21/2026 Niagara NY 911 Call Center
Trees down in Porter. Time estimated based
on radar.
0241 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Cambria Center 43.18N 78.82W
07/21/2026 Niagara NY 911 Call Center
Trees and power lines down in Cambria. Time
estimated based on radar.
&&
MBLocal storm report, Jul 21, 4:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 6 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
452 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0247 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NNW North Tonawanda 43.06N 78.88W
07/21/2026 Niagara NY 911 Call Center
Report of tree on home. Time estimated based
on radar.
&&
MBLocal storm report, Jul 21, 5:08 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
508 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0342 PM Flash Flood 3 NW Niagara Falls 43.12N 79.05W
07/21/2026 Niagara NY Public
Received report on Facebook of water rescue
with photo of vehicle stuck in flood waters
on College Avenue.
&&
MBLocal storm report, Jul 21, 6:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0553 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 S Gates-North Gates 43.11N 77.70W
07/21/2026 Monroe NY 911 Call Center
Tree down on power wires near Chili. Time
estimated based on radar.
&&
MBLocal storm report, Jul 21, 6:52 PM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
652 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM Flash Flood 2 ENE North Tonawanda 43.05N 78.83W
07/21/2026 Niagara NY Public
Received report via mPING of roads closed
due to flooding.
&&
MBLocal storm report, Jul 21, 6:59 PM EDT, 59 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
659 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SE Batavia 42.97N 78.14W
07/21/2026 Genesee NY 911 Call Center
Trees down in the Town of Batavia.
0622 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ESE Alexander 42.88N 78.20W
07/21/2026 Genesee NY 911 Call Center
Trees down in the Town of Alexander.
&&
FriesThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 9:08 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Chautauqua | 67 min |
| Jul 21, 9:47 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 58 min | |
| Jul 21, 9:58 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Chautauqua | 46 min |
| Jul 21, 11:17 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 38 min | |
| Jul 21, 11:45 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans | 29 min |
| Jul 21, 1:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 28 min |
| Jul 21, 1:29 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 61 min | |
| Jul 21, 2:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 55 min |
| Jul 21, 2:58 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 5 hr |
| Jul 21, 5:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Chautauqua | 58 min |
| Jul 21, 5:41 PM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | BUF | Cayuga, Jefferson, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans, Oswego and 1 more | 32 hr |
| Jul 21, 5:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Monroe, Ontario, Wayne | 54 min |
| Jul 21, 6:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wyoming | 76 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2026Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.