Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Burlington, VT

481 
WWUS51 KBTV 020110
SVSBTV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
910 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VTC019-023-020120-
/O.CAN.KBTV.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260702T0130Z/
Orleans VT-Washington VT-
910 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ORLEANS AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 7156 4456 7160 4454 7157 4450 7158
      4447 7165 4442 7170 4440 7179 4435 7181
      4434 7185 4435 7191 4432 7203 4433 7211
      4452 7182 4473 7170 4472 7161 4464 7156
      4460 7156 4459 7154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 288DEG 31KT 4461 7145 4446 7144 4422 7163 

$$

VTC005-009-020130-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260702T0130Z/
Caledonia VT-Essex VT-
910 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CALEDONIA AND SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTIES...

At 910 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles east of Maidstone to 10 miles southeast of
Guildhall to 14 miles south of Gilman, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Guildhall, Waterford, Concord, Lunenburg, Granby, Maidstone, Lower
Waterford, Maidstone State Park, Barnet, Brunswick, Victory, Kirby,
Ferdinand, Concord Corner, West Waterford, North Concord, East
Concord, Miles Pond, Passumpsic, and Gallup Mills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 91 between mile markers 123 and 127.
 Interstate 93 between mile markers 1 and 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 7156 4456 7160 4454 7157 4450 7158
      4447 7165 4442 7170 4440 7179 4435 7181
      4434 7185 4435 7191 4432 7203 4433 7211
      4452 7182 4473 7170 4472 7161 4464 7156
      4460 7156 4459 7154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 288DEG 31KT 4461 7145 4446 7144 4422 7163 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

038 
WWUS51 KBTV 020116
SVSBTV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
916 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VTC005-009-020125-
/O.CAN.KBTV.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-260702T0130Z/
Caledonia VT-Essex VT-
916 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CALEDONIA AND
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Burlington.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 7156 4456 7160 4454 7157 4450 7158
      4447 7165 4442 7170 4440 7179 4435 7181
      4434 7185 4435 7191 4432 7203 4433 7211
      4452 7182 4473 7170 4472 7161 4464 7156
      4460 7156 4459 7154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 288DEG 31KT 4460 7141 4445 7140 4421 7159 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
813 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 505 PM EDT Wednesday...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 11 PM for all
of northern New York and the Champlain Valley or New York and
Vermont. Damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and
hail.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...

1. Major to localized extreme heat risk is expected through
Friday with widespread heat index values of 95F to 105F. Some
locations could exceed 105F heat index due to very warm air
temperatures and dewpoints rising into the 70s.

2. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Friday. Some of these could be strong to severe, but there
remains considerable uncertainty in areal coverage and timing.

3. Hot and humid conditions will linger through the end of the
weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms into next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dangerous heat will continue to impact Vermont
and northern New York today through Friday. Widespread
temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s have already been
observed with heat indices in the Champlain Valley already near
100F and near 105F in the St. Lawrence Valley. While just a
Heat Advisory is in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley with heat
indices near or at 105F in Potsdam and Ogdensburg from
localized urban heat island processes, increasing clouds from
thunderstorms in Ontario will help to limit the potential for
any extended Extreme Heat Warning conditions. The high heat
index values will be present both tomorrow and Friday afternoon
areawide, with the highest occurring Thursday with just about
everyone hitting 90F, and some locations could approach 100F.
Unfortunately, humidity will also be on the increase; dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will not only make for
dangerous heat index values exceeding 100F in places, it will
keep the overnights very warm and muggy, limiting any relief
from the hot and humid daytime hours. We'll see a bit of a
respite from the humidity Friday and Saturday, but it will still
be very warm and muggy. Temperatures on the 4th will be around
the low to mid 80s, with some locations in the upper 80s in the
northern Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Upper Valley.
Heat Index values for holiday activities will be around the mid
to upper 80s.

Heat related impacts will increase through the week due to the
cumulative effects from the prolonged heat wave. Please make sure to
take proper heat safety precautions, including limiting your time
outdoors, drinking plenty of water, and seeking indoor shelter with
air conditioning. Check on your relatives and neighbors, especially
if they are elderly. And don't forget about your pets; bring them
indoors or provide them with ample shade and fresh cool water.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat and humidity will combine to create impressive SB
CAPE values today between 2500-4000 J/kg today and 1500-2500 J/kg on
Thursday, with some indications of values exceeding 3000 J/kg at
times. Shear will be less impressive, generally 25-35 kt depending
on the model and day, perhaps increasing to 40+ kt by Thursday
afternoon. We are currently monitoring a decaying MCS complex near
Montreal, which if it survives will move into a more favorable
environment as it approaches Vermont. Current track brings it into
the northern Champlain Valley around 3 PM with perhaps some gusty
winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. This threat will be
conditional on whether it survive and can tap into the better
environment. Otherwise today, with no strong forcing mechanism other
than the abundant instability, expect terrain-induced convection
today, generally remaining isolated to scattered in coverage. Strong
to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out given the large CAPE
values; SPC continues to encompass our entire forecast area in a
Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for Today. Model guidance during this
Ring of Fire setup has been lackluster at best. Convection across
Wisconsin and the upper mitt of Michigan will likely persist towards
eastern Ontario close to sunset, based on persistence and upper flow
patterns, which may pose an additional more organized thunderstorm
threat into this evening for northern New York, though confidence is
low at this time. Furthermore, additional thunderstorm chances may
exist into late tonight into the Champlain Valley and Vermont,
though any storms overnight are not expected to be severe. As one
would expect with the amount of humidity, we're also in WPC's
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall. Any storms
that pop up today would at the least produce heavy rainfall, though
widespread flooding is not anticipated.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday, though
marginal mid-level lapse rates due to loss of the EML will limit
instability and likely areal coverage/intensity for any convection
on Friday. We are included in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) in
SPC's Day 2 severe outlook. Friday is more uncertain, both in areal
coverage and potential storm severity. Still, given the upcoming
holiday festivities, we urge everyone to stay tuned to later
forecast updates as strong/severe thunderstorms can't be totally
ruled out any one day.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A stationary frontal boundary will be draped over
northern New York and Vermont Saturday night, drifting southwards
through Sunday night as the weekend comes to a close. This indicates
lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms, about 25-55%
chance, highest on Monday as a shortwave moves through the region.
Because of this, nights will be mild in the 60s with highs and
apparent temps remaining warm and muggy in the upper 70s and 80s.
Although it looks like it won't be quite as hot as we're expecting
these next couple of days, it is important to remember to drink
water and take frequent breaks if working outside, especially with
such an extended period of warmer weather. Next week, deterministic
model guidance diverges sharply, increasing uncertainty for the long
range forecast. At this time, high temperatures are most likely to
range in the 80s and lower 90s with chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions with the exception of MVFR
and very temporary IFR conditions in tstorms moving across the
entire CWA throu 04-06z. Thereafter until 12z looking at VFR
clouds with possible MVFR due to fog/haze and IFR likely at KSLK
and KMPV due to fog. Winds will generally be light.

Around 12Z-14Z Thursday as fog burns off with the rising sun.
Additional thunderstorms are possible Thursday though areal
coverage and intensity will likely be limited with SSW winds
around 10-15 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Scattered TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Isolated SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Scattered TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Extreme heat and humidity will affect the region for the latter
half of the week, which could lead to some daily records. Below
are the current daily high and low temperature records in
jeopardy at our area climate sites.

Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KBTV: 96/2018
KMPV: 92/2018
KPBG: 94/1968
KMSS: 94/2018

July 2:
KBTV: 97/2018
KMPV: 90/2018
KMSS: 94/2018

July 3:
KMPV: 91/2002

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1:
KBTV: 76/2018
KPBG: 73/1971
KSLK: 69/2018

July 2:
KPBG: 77/2002
KSLK: 68/2002

July 3:
KBTV: 76/1911
KPBG: 73/2002

July 4:
KPBG: 71/1973
KSLK: 67/1952

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-
     016>020.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-
     087.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm
AVIATION...SLW
CLIMATE...Danzig/NWS BTV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
507 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-011-022115-
Eastern Clinton-Eastern Essex-Grand Isle-Western Franklin-
Western Chittenden-Western Addison-Western Rutland-
507 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Extreme Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-020-022115-
Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Orange-Western Windsor-
507 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Vermont, northeast
Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VTZ021-022115-
Eastern Windsor-
507 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087-VTZ016>019-022115-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Southeastern St. Lawrence-
Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-Western Essex-
Southwestern St. Lawrence-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-
Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
507 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
754 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Bangor             44.79N 74.35W
07/01/2026                   Franklin           NY   Public

            Tree down blocking entire roadway.

&&

NEILES

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
805 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Underhill         44.50N 72.95W
07/01/2026                   Chittenden         VT   Public

            Tree down on Browns Trace Road.

&&

NEILES

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
807 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Stowe              44.48N 72.70W
07/01/2026                   Lamoille           VT   Trained Spotter

            Trees down.

&&

NEILES

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
817 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Chittenden        43.74N 72.97W
07/01/2026                   Rutland            VT   Public

            Trees and powerlines down.

&&

NEILES

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
818 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Chittenden        43.74N 72.97W
07/01/2026                   Rutland            VT   Public

            Trees and powerlines down.

&&

NEILES

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
819 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Pittsford         43.73N 73.00W
07/01/2026                   Rutland            VT   Public

            Trees and powerlines down.

&&

NEILES