Wind Advisory 4, NWS La Crosse, WI

376 
WWUS73 KARX 122304
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
604 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ086-087-094-095-130015-
/O.EXP.KARX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260412T2300Z/
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Cresco, New Hampton, Austin, Charles
City, Dodge Center, Preston, Osage, and Rochester
604 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

JAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
129 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An additional round of storms is possible this afternoon in
  southwestern Wisconsin. The overall severe threat is low, but
  a few could produce locally heavy rainfall.

- Severe weather threat for Monday evening hinges on *IF* storms
  can develop along and south of the warm front and the
  location of said warm front. At this time, storms look likely
  (70%) to develop along the warm front with this front likely
  (70%) being located north of the I-90 corridor. Large hail is
  the primary risk and there will be a window with a tornado
  risk as well before storms agglomerate. While this appears
  unlikely, if storms can develop farther away from the warm
  front, these would be more likely to remain isolated for
  longer and thus carry a longer-lasting tornado risk.

- Tuesday's severe weather threat, primarily a risk for hail,
  looks to be confined to far southwest Wisconsin and adjacent
  portions of northeast Iowa during the afternoon hours.

- Warm week ahead with high temperatures in the 70s to around
  80. More storms dot the forecast later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Thunderstorm potential this afternoon

Period of modest descent in the wake of the morning shortwave and
thunderstorms is occurring early this afternoon across the forecast
area. Additionally, cloudy conditions are inhibiting insolation and
thus limiting airmass recovery. That said, southerly winds through
much of the area are still advecting warm, moist air into the
region, so current thinking is that some conditionally unstable
conditions will develop during the afternoon despite the suboptimal
setup but will need some upper support to help cool the mid levels
just enough for thunderstorms to blossom. This likely (60-80%) will
come to southwest WI and parts of northeast IA in the form of the
shortwave currently moving northeast of eastern KS while areas to
the northwest remain capped. While some marginal shear will be
present - around 35 knots of sfc-6km bulk shear - progged soundings
indicate skinny CAPE profiles and only around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE
and, with inhibited insolation due to cloudiness, a limited well-
mixed boundary layer. Therefore, while a stray strong gust or hail
report cannot be ruled out, severe thunderstorms appear quite
unlikely.

Severe thunderstorms possible Monday late afternoon into evening

After a period of large scale descent tonight into Monday morning in
the wake of Sunday afternoon's shortwave, moisture return to the low
levels occurs as southerly advection resumes east of a lee cyclone
developing in SD/NE. With southwesterly winds aloft increasing ahead
of an upper wave over the Dakotas and southerly flow at the surface,
deep shear will be on the increase, with 12.12z HREF having a 30-90%
chance, highest north of I-94 and lowest in NE IA/SW WI, for at
least 45 knots of sfc-6km bulk shear. A stout EML will also advect
over the CWA with 12.12z HREF suggesting mid-level lapse rates will
likely (50-75%) exceed 8.5 C/km. Given shear and the presence of
this EML, large hail looks to be the primary threat with any storms
that develop. However, the bottom of this EML may inhibit
thunderstorm development and most guidance keeps things capped along
and south of I-90. Indeed, convective allowing guidance shows
convection initiating closer to the warm front, mainly affecting
Clark/Taylor Counties. Have therefore endeavored to focus PoPs in
our north while keeping low mentions in our south as some
parameterized guidance, mainly the EC, do suggest the cap could be
overcome farther south. In any case, if convection can get going
south of the warm front, this would carry a tornado risk in addition
to aforementioned hail concerns given the deep shear supporting
supercells and sfc-500m SRH values approaching 100 m2/s2. At this
time, this risk looks to focus north of I-90 and, overall,
convection may struggle to develop except close to the warm front,
where the along-boundary nature of deep shear vector and resultant
storm motions would favor quick upscale growth and thus a time-
limited tornado risk.

Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon

Influence of the upper wave over the Dakotas moving east over Lake
Superior and outflow from thunderstorms Monday evening looks to
shunt appreciable moisture southeastward for Tuesday with the moist
axis including generally areas in far SW WI and adjacent parts of
northeast Iowa. However, for those areas, a risk for severe storms
would be present given MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and deep
shear still around 40 knots. The good news is that progged
hodographs in our CWA show little turning in the low levels so
thinking the tornado risk will be low. Should the moist sector
remain in place farther northwest than currently favored, more areas
would see a hail risk and a relatively higher tornado risk would
creep into our south.

Warmth ahead with multiple chances for precip, storms

General trend with a western CONUS trough continues through Saturday
with warm temperatures as a result. With multiple wave ejecting
northeastward, will continue to have periodic chances for
precipitation and, depending on moisture return, potential for
strong to severe storms. At this time, potential for both rain and
strong to severe storms looks to focus on Wednesday and Friday but,
as timing of upper level features becomes uncertain, cannot rule out
adjustments in timing over the coming days. Longwave upper trough
finally arrives Saturday, bringing a cold front through the area,
returning temperatures to around normal (50s) by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MVFR conditions improve to low-VFR this afternoon as our first round
of precipitation departs to this east. Low-level winds will increase
overnight as a nocturnal inversion builds in which may bring some
LLWS to KLSE, however it is unclear for how long of a period this
will result in and if gusts will still be ongoing. Otherwise, a
weather disturbance passes us to the southeast overnight which will
lower cigs, particularly east of the Mississippi River to MVFR,
perhaps IFR thresholds. Will need to see if any fog manifests in
portions of northeast IA and southeast MN if skies can remain clear
overnight. This may result in IFR vsby reductions however,
probabilities are not overly high at this juncture (~20% chance in
the HREF for under 1SM at KRST). Skies likely improve to VFR towards
18z with showers and storms developing near and north of I-90 late
Monday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

PWATs have been on the increase and now are nearing or
exceeding values with respect to both NAEFS model climatology
and observed climatology at MPX (1.22" observed at 12.12z) with
DVN (1.03" observed at 12.00z) above the 90th percentile. With
PWATs remaining at least around the 97.5th percentile over the
next 3 days, concerns for localized heavy rain will continue.
That said, threat for axis of heavy rain immediately repeating
on a following day is low - for example, today favors SW WI and
NE IA which may struggle to see precip Monday before being
favored for thunderstorms again Tuesday. At this time,
relatively higher concern for several hours of training storms
focuses on the warm frontal convection discussed above. Should
initiation focus along the warm front Monday, an east-west axis
of west-central WI could easily see 2"+ of rain, an outcome
reflected in 12.12z HREF PMM data. As discussed, this axis is
favored (70%) to be somewhere north of the I-90 corridor which
would tend to affect the Black and Wisconsin basins. Still
a good amount of uncertainty in the frontal position but
watching the position of the warm front closely tomorrow for
both hydro and severe storm concerns.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Potential Record Warmth Monday & Tuesday (Record/Forecast):

April 13th           High Temp           Warm Low
-----------          --------            -------
Rochester, MN     83 (2023) / 75       59 (1941) / 54
La Crosse, WI     85 (2023) / 77       63 (1941) / 57

April 14th
----------
Rochester, MN     87 (2003) / 71       56 (1976) / 55
La Crosse, WI     90 (2003) / 76       60 (1883) / 58

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Naylor
HYDROLOGY...Ferguson
CLIMATE...Ferguson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
132 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-132245-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
132 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A round of thunderstorms the region this afternoon, mainly in
southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. While the overall severe
weather threat is low, storms could produce locally heavy rain
and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon into the
late evening and Tuesday afternoon. While confidence is low in
the exact timing and coverage of storms, those that do form will
be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes, in addition to locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed Monday afternoon into the late
evening and Tuesday afternoon.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar has been scheduled for 1 PM CDT Monday afternoon.

APF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
902 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Rain             6 ENE Stetsonville      45.10N 90.20W
04/12/2026  M1.65 Inch       Taylor             WI   Public

            24-hr rainfall total.

&&