Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Topeka, KS

745 
WGUS73 KTOP 200334
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1034 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSC085-149-200344-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250520T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson KS-Pottawatomie KS-
1034 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND 
NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. While additional rain may occur, flooding 
is no longer expected to pose a threat at this time. Please continue 
to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9634 3956 9607 3956 9591 3941 9604
      3926 9616

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
117 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across
  most of northeast and east central Kansas.

- While exact details on coverage of severe storms is uncertain given
  the mesoscale details driving the initial forcing for these
  storms, all hazards remain possible with convection, including
  tornadoes.

- Quiet weather returns tomorrow with possible rain chances for
  Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Upper low continues to churn across the northern tier of the western
high plains early this afternoon while strong southwesterly flow and
embedded vort maxes stream northeast into the region. North to south
dryline is continue to advance east towards northeast Kansas, the
primary focus for convection by mid afternoon. Latest runs from the
HRRR/RAP and NAMNEST are signaling the potential for scattered
storms to develop within the warm sector as early as 1 PM just ahead
of the dryline (far eastern Kansas), as low level warm advection
spreads northeastward amid sfc CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG.
Low level shear initially in the afternoon is around 20 kts before
decreasing temporarily until the low level jet increases with values
to around 30 kts after 23Z as storms off the dryline approach. Storm
mode is important in assessing tornado potential as more discrete
cells carry a higher tornado potential whereas if storms are able to
quickly congeal into a line (as latest CAMS suggest), than the
tornado threat is not as prominent, although a brief spin up is
certainly probable given the environment. Storms along the dryline
are most likely to form after 2 PM, roughly along and east of a line
from Washington to Abilene, tracking eastward during the evening
hours. In addition to the tornado concern, large hail up to 2 inches
in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are most likely with
these storms. If multiple rounds of storms occur, there is a slight
risk for flash flooding over far eastern Kansas where rainfall
amounts of up 2 inches (possibly higher) are forecast through
Tuesday morning. Latest 12Z guidance signals a third round of
scattered storms with the cold front, however confidence is low on
severity of these storms, especially given the more worked over
environment from previous convection.

Tuesday is fortunately a much quieter, albeit breezy afternoon as
winds increase from the northwest at 15 to 20 mph.  Upper low
remains stalled across the northern plains, resulting in dry
northwesterly flow aloft through mid week. As the upper ridge begins
to build towards the Rockies Thursday and Friday, an additional
upper trough gradually migrates into the plains, while an h85 front
sets up somewhere over southern Kansas. Focus for several rounds of
rain showers is possible throughout Memorial Day weekend, especially
south of I-70 given the latest ensemble trends. Severe weather probs
are currently low with optimal instability further south of the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

MVFR cigs this afternoon at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as next system
approaches, triggering scattered TSRA as early as 19Z.
Confidence is lower for storms to impact KTOP/KFOE from 19-20Z
with latest guidance developing activity just east of the
terminals. Line of TSRA is anticipated to form near KMHK from
00-03Z with highest confidence for impacts towards KTOP/KFOE
through 03Z. A fropa occurs between 09-12Z, veering winds to the
west northwest at 10 to 15 kts sustained.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
147 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ009>012-021>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059-201900-
Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Clay-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
Jefferson-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-
Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
147 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...TORNADO WATCH 294 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe storms are expected later this afternoon and into the
evening. Very large hail, damaging winds will be the main hazards. A
few tornadoes will also be possible and flooding risk may rise if
storms a slow to move out of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ008-020-034-201900-
Republic-Cloud-Ottawa-
147 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
355 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ010-192145-
Marshall-
355 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Blue Rapids, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Hail damage to outdoor objects
         and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville and Oketo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9638 3973 9656 3975 9677 4000 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 207DEG 25KT 3973 9669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Griesemer

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
451 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     Hail             Summerfield             40.00N 96.35W
05/19/2025  E1.50 Inch       Marshall           KS   Public

&&

smb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
512 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     Hail             2 W Olsburg             39.43N 96.65W
05/19/2025  E1.50 Inch       Pottawatomie       KS   Trained Spotter

&&

smb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     Funnel Cloud     5 W Eskridge            38.87N 96.20W
05/19/2025                   Wabaunsee          KS   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
535 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Hail             3 W Onaga               39.49N 96.23W
05/19/2025  E1.00 Inch       Pottawatomie       KS   NWS Employee

&&

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Hail             3 E Herington           38.66N 96.89W
05/19/2025  E1.00 Inch       Morris             KS   Trained Spotter

&&

smb