Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 310
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2025, 7:12 PM EDT for 14 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 30, 2025, 7:12 PM EDT (23:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 30, 2025, 8:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 75
Counties Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Huron County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Midland County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wayne County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 39 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 450 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 327 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 304 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
203
ACUS11 KWNS 302312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302312
MIZ000-310045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...
Valid 302312Z - 310045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
continues.
SUMMARY...A northeastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a
severe-wind and embedded/brief tornado risk across southeastern
Lower Michigan.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with an established 70+ kt rear inflow
jet and embedded mesovorticies is tracking northeastward across
southeastern Lower Michigan at around 50 kt. The DTX VWP indicates
40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular to the gust front,
which should support continued maintenance of this system. As the
strong cold pool continues tracking into lower 60s F dewpoints,
around 70 mph wind gusts will remain possible. However, locally
stronger gusts up to 80 mph (and a brief tornado) are possible with
any line-embedded mesovorticies and in the vicinity of the
established rear-inflow jet.
..Weinman.. 03/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42088361 42708388 43378452 43608480 43878472 44128405
44108279 43918257 43008231 41968288 41868329 42088361
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 INSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 9:32 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickinson, Iron | 5 hr |
| Mar 30, 1:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Berrien, Cass, Saint Joseph, Van Buren | 2 hr |
| Mar 30, 2:13 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Berrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph | 5 hr |
| Mar 30, 3:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cass | 115 min |
| Mar 30, 3:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic and 8 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 30, 3:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Branch, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 22 more | 116 min |
| Mar 30, 4:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Gratiot and 9 more | 3 hr |
| Mar 30, 5:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bay, Genesee, Hillsdale, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee and 12 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.