Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity intensify Sunday with highs in the upper
  80s to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s.

- Unsettled weather resumes late Sunday and lasts through early
  next week. Severe storms are possible Sunday night and heavy
  rainfall is possible Monday night.

- Cooler and drier conditions later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Ridging will continue to build in from the west through the course
of today. A few pre-dawn storms are possible this morning as a mid-
level wave embedded within this ridge has already initiated
some convection over the eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN.
The most concentrated region of storm coverage this morning
should remain across northern MN although, there is a slight
chance that some of that convection reaches portions of west-
central MN.

As they say in the south, "it's not the heat, it's the
humidity!" That holds true for our forecast today which is why
heat headlines exist for all of central and southern MN and
western WI. Typical warm areas across western MN could make a
run at the upper 90s should the +30C h925 temps verify but as of
now opt'd to run with NBM output in the mid 90s. Areas
elsewhere can expect highs at or about 90. The driver for this
extreme heat event are the widespread low to mid 70 dew points
which in turn force heat indices this afternoon. Areas in
eastern MN and the St. Croix River Valley can expect a heat
index at our just above 100 degrees whereas 100 to 105 across
western MN. Max WBGTs will reach the upper 80s for most areas.
Try and keep cool if you can by ensuring to stay hydrated, wear
light clothing, and limit time outdoors. Also, suspended
wildfire smoke will alert its way eastward as it accompanies the
ridge but some good news is that it looks to be remain
prevalent aloft. Thus surface impacts to air quality look to
remain null today.

As we this evening into the overnight hours, convection still looks
to be a favorable possibility. Flow aloft becomes westerly and
increases to about 40kts. Extreme instability of +3000 J/kg SBCAPE
will be in place. Residual boundaries that remain from the ongoing
convection across NW MN this morning will aid in parcel ascent and
ultimately drive CI again this afternoon along and north of the
I-94 corridor in western MN. Multi-cell lines are expected to
congeal into a SSE progressing QLCS which will provide primarily
a damaging wind threat, but with steep lapse rates of 8C, large
hail will also be possible. Lastly with 45 to 50kt effective
shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out.

Sunday night's convection will setup the stage for Monday's
convective environment. A boundary will exist somewhere likely
over southern MN into WI and is progged to lift northward.
Tropical like PWATs exceeding +2" with a continuing unstable
airmass, and strengthening LLJ, additional CI is possible with
storms capable of producing heavy rainfall. The SPC has upgraded
portions of western MN to a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms. Forecast guidance still is trying to work out
where potential training storms could drop the highest QPF.
HREF 24-hr PMM through Monday evening favors areas across
eastern- central MN down to southeastern MN seeing potentially 3
to 4" of storm total rainfall. As for temperatures Monday,
things still remain hot and humid but not as impactful as
Sunday's heat threat. This heat will be dependent on any
existing convective contamination which would limit heating
potential.

As for Tuesday, the threat for thunderstorms will be focused along
N/IA border. As of now the SPC has maintained a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms in that region given a frontal boundary is
forecast to pass through that area. Confidence remains low for exact
location impacts as there are a few spatial inconsistencies within
forecast guidance. Therefore, maintained lower mention of PoPs
Tuesday.

Cooler and drier air will follow for the rest of the week with
surface high pressure building in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Complicated forecast period in terms of timing of TSRA... Models
have handled the ongoing convection across South Dakota and
western Minnesota poorly today. The ongoing storm (1730z) will
impact the forecast for the rest of this afternoon and evening,
but just how much remains to be seen. In any case, have added in
TEMPO/PROB30s for all terminals sometime between 21z and 08z.
Fog development is likely with light and variable winds and
ample moisture tomorrow morning.

KMSP...As mentioned above, an unusually high amount of
uncertainty exists for only being a few hours out from expected
onset of convection. In any case, believe that the best chance
for storms will be sometime after 03-04z. Have a PROB30 to cover
anything that materializes before then and have introduced
prevailing -TSRA from 04z to 08z with a PROB30 for LIFR
conditions. VFR conditions with light winds expected from Monday
morning through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10G15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Douglas-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Stearns-
     Steele-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
280815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
314 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hot and very humid conditions arrive today. Extreme Heat Warnings
or Heat Advisories are in effect through early this evening.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight, especially along
and north of I-94. Damaging winds are the main threat, but some
large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are likely Monday night and Tuesday.
Heavy rainfall and some severe weather is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter may be needed tonight and Monday night.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     Tornado          4 E Louisburg           45.16N 96.09W
07/27/2025                   Lac qui Parle      MN   Law Enforcement

            Report of tornado southwest of Appleton near
            the Minnesota River.

&&

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
103 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Milan               45.11N 95.91W
07/27/2025                   Chippewa           MN   Trained Spotter

            Report of numerous large trees down between
            Milan and Chippewa County Road 32. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

MED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
108 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Watson              45.02N 95.80W
07/27/2025                   Chippewa           MN   Trained Spotter

            Large trees and power lines down near the
            city of Watson. Time estimated from radar.

&&

MED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
110 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSE Madison           44.99N 96.18W
07/27/2025  M52 MPH          Lac qui Parle      MN   AWOS

&&

MED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
144 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SE Milan              45.08N 95.86W
07/27/2025                   Chippewa           MN   Trained Spotter

            Photos on social media of snapped power pole
            and several large tree limbs down onto a
            house.

&&

MED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
208 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

MNZ057-058-065-272000-
Kandiyohi MN-Meeker MN-Renville MN-
208 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MEEKER...SOUTHERN
KANDIYOHI AND NORTH CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Prinsburg, or 16 miles south of Willmar, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Olivia, Bird Island, Prinsburg, Cosmos, Lake Lillian, Blomkest,
  Svea and Thorpe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4485 9526 4502 9518 4498 9463 4470 9479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 286DEG 23KT 4491 9508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff