Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

625 
WWUS83 KILX 141924
RFWILX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
224 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

ILZ027>031-036>038-150200-
/O.CON.KILX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T0200Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
224 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Knox, Stark, Peoria, Marshall, Woodford, 
  Fulton, Tazewell and McLean.

* TIMING...Until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with occasional gusts
  exceeding 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 30 percent.

* 10 HOUR FUELS...Less than 8 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MJA

231 
WWUS83 KILX 150104
RFWILX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
804 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

ILZ027>031-036>038-150215-
/O.CAN.KILX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250315T0200Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
804 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.


$$

Copple

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1205 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) of severe storms is still
  expected Friday evening. The top concern is damaging straight-
  line winds (potentially in excess of 75 mph), but a few brief
  tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and large hail (some
  greater than 2") are also still possible.

- Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts, out of the south-southeast,
  are expected Friday into Friday evening. Gusts of 35-45 mph will
  be common Friday afternoon along and north of I-70, with a 40-50%
  chance of up to 50 mph gusts late Friday afternoon into Friday
  evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire area for
  Friday PM.

- The very strong winds Friday afternoon into Friday evening,
  combined with lower relative humidities down to 35% and very dry
  fuels, will lead to the potential for any brush or field fires
  to quickly spread. The main area of concern is along and north
  of I-72, but the concern may have to include areas to the south
  later. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
  Friday afternoon into early Friday evening and burning tomorrow
  is not recommended.

- Near-record temperatures are possible on Friday. Forecast highs
  are near 80 degrees, and record highs are generally in the low
  80s.

- Additional strong wind gusts are expected from mid-morning
  Saturday through early afternoon, out of the southwest. There is
  a 40-50% chance for gusts up to 50 mph north of I-74, with
  lower probabilities south of I-74.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Temperatures late this evening remain mild with observations ranging
from the low to middle 60s. Overnight lows will bottom out in the
middle to upper 50s, with much of the area remaining underneath
broad WAA. A stationary/warm front is stretched from roughly Quincy
to Paris and will gradually lift north of here by sunrise. High
resolution CAMs still show some scattered shower activity developing
along the front late tonight, but a majority of it looks to stay
just outside of the forecast area in west-central Illinois.

Attention then turns to Friday with a potpourri of weather on
tap, including potentially record breaking warmth. Strong
southerly winds ramp up by late Friday morning into Friday
afternoon with the windiest period looking to be between 3-7 pm,
right before convection begins spreading in from the east. Wind
gusts during this period have the potential to approach or exceed
50 mph. This also brings a concern for fire weather since rapid
fire spread will be easily attainable with the strong winds, low
relative humidities (~30%), and dry vegetation. In addition, any
loose top soil from freshly touched fields could allow dust to
easily blow around and reduce visibility.

Storm chances increase Friday evening, with a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms anticipated to move into our west-central
Illinois counties between 7 and 9 pm. The line will then quickly
spread east and approach the Indiana border just after midnight. All
hazards are possible with the line of storms, though significant
(>75 mph) wind gusts appear to be the front runner. 0-3 km shear
vectors appear to be more parallel to the line of storms, which
typically wouldn't favor a setup for embedded tornadoes. However,
with 0-3 km shear vectors of 50-60 kt we would have more range
off the 0-3 km line-normal vector (~57 degrees to be exact) to
support line-embedded tornadoes, especially where there is any
bowing or surges in the line. Modifications to PoPs were made this
evening to better time the arrival of storms, but otherwise the
forecast remains largely on track.

NMA

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Earlier HiRes models continued to show isolated showers/storms
could possibly develop this evening in the southeast to southwest
parts of the CWA. Boundary and developing CU can still be seen on
vis satellite imagery in southeast IL slowly moving to the NW.
Already had slight chance of precip in the forecast and see no
reason to remove it at this time. The remainder of the night
should be dry with scattered clouds, so sky cover may be decent
for viewing of the lunar eclipse tonight. Overnight lows should
fall into the lower to middle 50s.

The big event will still be the strong system developing out west
through tomorrow afternoon. Newest HiRes CAMs continue to support
a strong squall line developing in central MO and central IA
tomorrow late afternoon and then moving toward IL in the early
evening hours. The 18z HRRR is about 1 hr slow than the 12z run,
but messaging remains the same. Arrival time into west parts of
the CWA looks to be between 8-9pm. The line quickly moves east,
but the individual cells will move northeast across the area. Line
and cell speeds still look to be around 50-60 mph. Wind dynamics
remain strong with 50-60kts of shear in the 0-3km layer. The
concern is the amount of moisture with the system. Dewpts only get
into the lower to middle 50s during the day, but temps will get to
around 80 across the area. This will keep RH values in the 35 to
40 degree range. Forecast soundings will be inverted V with steep
low level lapse rates. But they also show the moisture will be
quite shallow and will probably quickly mix out. So, thinking here
is that damaging wind event remains likely with possible bowing
segments which could produce brief tornadoes. Large hail is
possible with the colder air aloft, but think that is a small
threat due to the fast movement of the storms. Storms should move
through the entire CWA around midnight, but some CAMS indicating
that storms will start gusting out around I-55 with the threat
diminishing east of that.

Another items that was added with tomorrows weather is the
possibility of fire weather. With the very high winds, any brush
or field fire that develops tomorrow will likely quickly spread.
Adding to this is the RH values will be in the mid 30s and good
mixing will occur, bringing down those high winds. The winds will
dry out the fields quickly too. Do not think much tilling has
occurred, so do not think blowing dust will as bad of a problem as
in past years, but it is something we will be monitoring.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Showers will continue into Sat morning and afternoon in the east
and southeast, with only a small chance of a thunderstorm in the
far southeast. Most models push all precip out of the area with
nothing going on Sat. However, a few keep some form of precip in
the southeast on Sat afternoon. As the upper level system pushes
east into Sat night, light rain or snow showers will be possible
over parts of the CWA. Winds will remain gusty into Saturday, but
guidance suggests the winds will remain below the 45mph
criteria...though there may be a few gusts that reach that level,
but not long. However, if things change in later forecasts,
another wind advisory will have to be considered.

Cooler air will move into the area late this weekend, with some
areas seeing lows below freezing. However, this will be shortly
lived and temps will warm back into the 60s and 70s for Mon
through Wed. Then a mid week system will bring another round of
precip and cooler temps for the last part of the week.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Relatively benign conditions will be seen overnight before things
turn unsettled on Friday. Strong southerly winds are expected to
ramp up late Friday morning with gusts approaching 40-45 kts by the
afternoon/early evening hours. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is then forecast to spread in from the west shortly
after 00Z, with estimated arrival at western TAF sites (PIA, SPI) by
~02Z, then quickly spreading east thereafter. The main threat with
the line of storms will be damaging wind gusts potentially up to 65
kt.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-142000-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-
252 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to race across the area
Friday evening. The primary threat is damaging winds, potentially in
excess of 75 mph, though very large hail and tornadoes are also
possible.

Outside the storms, strong winds are expected Friday into Saturday.
Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening,
and also again from mid morning to mid afternoon Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be required Friday evening, with the most
likely time frame between 7 pm and 11 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the NNE around 70mph.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-142000-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
252 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to race across the area
Friday evening. The primary threat is damaging winds, potentially in
excess of 70 to 75 mph, though large hail and a few tornadoes are
also possible.

Outside the storms, strong winds are expected Friday into Saturday.
Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening,
and also again from mid morning to mid afternoon Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be required Friday evening, with the most
likely time frame between 10 pm and 2 am.

Expected storm motion is toward the NNE around 70mph.

MJA