Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight, Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) severe storms for far
  west central Kansas with a fairly low chance that storms will
  survive late into the night, east of Highway 83.

- Tomorrow evening, Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) severe storms
  with a much better chance of longer-lived thunderstorm
  cluster, capable of damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.

- The overall pattern will continue to favor another round of
  storms moving in from Colorado again Monday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Thunderstorm chances, timing, location, and severity will continue
to be the main forecast challenges over the next several days.  As
far as the near-term goes through this evening, widely scattered
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will likely develop along
an old, stalled out front westward into east central and southeast
Colorado. The surface wind convergence along the old front across
southwest Kansas was quite weak, but dewpoint temperatures holding
in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the lack of a strong capping
inversion will help mitigate the weakness in surface convergence. As
of 20Z, we were already seeing towering cumulus and even a small
storm or two near the Colorado line from around Saunders north-
northwestward to north of Coolidge. This area of initial development
seemed to match up well with HREF paintball plot of 35+ dBZ
Composite Reflectivity.

Deep layer shear is pretty weak, however 8km AGL winds of around 45-
50 knots will overspread far western Kansas by early evening, so
there should be at least some loosely organized, marginally severe
clusters. Supercell structures do not appear likely, however a brief
period of modest mid level rotation in any of the strongest discrete
storms cannot be ruled out for some large hail potential (perhaps up
to 1.5" diameter) and up to 70 mph wind gusts before storms grow
upscale and cold pools begin to take over. Another round of storms
is shown by the HREF and even latest HRRR runs, affecting mainly far
west central and far southwest Kansas before they ultimately
diminish at some point during the overnight hours. Thus, highest
POPs will be confined to the western counties (generally 40-50%).

Looking ahead to tomorrow/tomorrow night, the prospects for even more
organized storms and perhaps a fairly long-lived mesoscale
convective system (MCS) look better, as upper level forcing for
ascent increases with the exit region of a high-level jet around 60
knots moving out across the Central High Plains. This, combined with
slightly improved low level upslope winds (vs. today) will aid in
greater deep layer shear to support more organized, longer-lived
strong to severe convection. For this reason, the SPC Day Two
outlook does include much of our southwest and west central Kansas
region in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period, with light
and variable winds, outside of the influence of any
thunderstorm outflows. Compared to 24 hours ago, there is much
more uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage this TAF
period. Storms may remain near/west of GCK/LBL 06-09z Sun, and
only included VCTS/CB in those TAFs for now. Kept HYS/DDC dry
for the next 24 hours, but uncertainty exists with high humidity
in such a weakly forced environment. Despite the very moist
boundary layer, models suggest no stratus/BR/FG through Sunday
morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
449 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
449 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 /349 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts
as high as 60 mph and quarter sized hail are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday evenings. Hail to 2
inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph are possible on
Sunday.

The storms Monday may also contain large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few storm spotters may be needed this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KSZ061-052130-
Hamilton KS-
246 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...

At 246 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout very near Coolidge, moving east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and nickel size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Coolidge around 250 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 10204 3813 10163 3787 10175 3796 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 282DEG 15KT 3807 10202

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KSZ077-052200-
Gray KS-
359 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN GRAY COUNTY THROUGH 500
PM CDT...

At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout 7 miles north of Montezuma, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Gray
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 10063 3780 10060 3777 10021 3747 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 297DEG 9KT 3770 10046

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
442 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KSZ076-077-052230-
Gray KS-Haskell KS-
442 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Copeland, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Gray
and northeastern Haskell Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3776 10058 3764 10044 3749 10065 3767 10086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 050DEG 10KT 3767 10059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KSZ062-075-052300-
Kearny KS-Grant KS-
504 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN KEARNY AND NORTHERN
GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lakin, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Kearny and
northern Grant Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10143 3796 10120 3768 10116 3769 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 001DEG 12KT 3789 10132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KSZ065-052300-
Pawnee KS-
506 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ash Valley, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sanford around 525 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 9944 3834 9917 3809 9910 3809 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 001DEG 12KT 3829 9931

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SUGDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KSZ046-060000-
Rush KS-
557 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Shaffer, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Shaffer around 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9920 3854 9922 3856 9903 3836 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 342DEG 6KT 3848 9908

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SUGDEN