Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- T-storms with locally heavy rain are likely this evening over
  south central Kansas including Medicine Lodge.

- Very hot weather is predicted for Saturday through Tuesday and
  possibly into Wednesday.

- Cooler weather will return by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

A frontal boundary over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma,
along with a weak upper level disturbance, will lead to t-storm
development late this afternoon in Barber county. Initial
storms will form in southeastern Barber county and these may
expand a bit northward on outflow. Damaging winds as high as 60
mph and locally heavy rain is possible. Elevated showers and
t-storms will develop later tonight along and south of a line
from Elkhart to Jetmore to Stafford; but these will not be
severe. Normally when heavy rain develops to the southeast it
cuts off heavy rain chances to the north. Current thinking is
that the heavy rain potential is confined to Barber county along
the front. Areas along I-70 and across west central Kansas will
stay mainly dry.

Cooler weather will persist Friday, with lingering showers
possible through mid morning. Highs will be in the 80s. A weak
upper level disturbance in the southern stream will approach the
central high plains Saturday; but at the same time there will
be a tendency for upper level height rises across the southern
plains. The various ensemble means show no precipitation and
this is probably correct. That said, going with 0% t-storm
chances when mid level flow is coming across Colorado into
western Kansas is risky in summer. But any t-storms would be
isolated so that rain chances at any one point are less than 5%.

An upper level ridge will expand across western Kansas Sunday
through Tuesday. In the absence of any frontal convergence,
t-storm chances are close to 0%. The highest heat indices will
be across central Kansas from Hays south to Pratt where surface
dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to near 70. However, the
models have all been underestimating low level moisture this
summer, perhaps because of the mishandling of moisture fluxes
from the ground and vegetation. In dry years this pattern would
yield several days with readings over 100. But confidence in
reaching 100 is lower this year given all the rain in Dodge City
and surrounding areas. The hottest readings will be across far
western Kansas where the air will be drier. Therefore,
temperatures at locations such as Ulysses, Lakin, Garden City
and Scott City will likely reach or exceed 100. From Dodge City
eastward, readings may fall short of 100; but elevated moisture
levels will likely result in heat indices from 100-105,
particularly for Larned, Hays and Pratt.

An upper level trough traversing southern Canada and into the
Great Lakes mid next week will shove a cold front through
western Kansas late Wednesday. Temperatures may still be hot
Wednesday, especially along the OK/KS state line. The ensemble
means show a frontal passage some time Wednesday, suggesting
cooler temperatures along I-70 and possibly farther south. The
ensemble means of the EPS and GEPS show t-storm chances
increasing by Wednesday evening and Thursday as the front
passes, along with cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight and through
at least the first half of the day on Friday across southwest
Kansas. The best chances for these thunderstorms will be in the
Dodge City and Liberal areas through 18z Friday. Rainfall may be
heavy at times which may reduce visibilities from time to time
from these storms. Ceilings will also fall to 1000ft AGL or less
between 09z and 15z in the Garden City and Hays areas as
stratus develops early Friday morning. Elsewhere the HREF and
LAMP guidance has ceilings at or above 3000ft AGL. Winds
overnight and Friday will be primarily east northeast at less
than 10 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
311 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
311 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 /211 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms between 3pm and
9 pm south of a Stafford to Meade line. Main hazards will be 60
mph wind gusts and small hail.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible from these late day and
overnight thunderstorms. This heavy rainfall may result in
localized flash flooding, especially in poor drainage and low
lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An extended period of hot temperatures can be expected from Sunday
through at least Tuesday. Heat Index values each afternoon will
range from 100 to near 104.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.