Gale Warning 39, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

567 
WHUS71 KBOX 020717
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

ANZ250-254-255-022030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.251203T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and 
  Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-022030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.251203T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-022030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.251203T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
Nantucket Sound-
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-022030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.251203T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Boston Harbor-
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ256-022030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.251202T2100Z-251204T0600Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233>235-237-022030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.251202T2100Z-251204T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Rhode Island 
  Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-022030-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.251202T2100Z-251203T1200Z/
Narragansett Bay-
217 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

824 
WHUS71 KBOX 030736
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

ANZ250-254-255-032200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0023.251204T2000Z-251205T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Watch, 
  northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 5 
  to 8 feet possible.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and 
  Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Friday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-032200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0023.251204T2000Z-251205T1200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, northwest winds 20 to 30 
  kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet possible.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Friday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-032200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0023.251204T2000Z-251205T1200Z/
Nantucket Sound-
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, northwest winds 25 to 35 
  kt and seas 3 to 5 feet possible.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Friday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-031200-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Boston Harbor-
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves around 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ256-032200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.000000T0000Z-251204T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0023.251204T2000Z-251205T1200Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 
  kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale 
  Watch, northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet possible.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Friday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...For the Small Craft Advisory, conditions will be
  hazardous to small craft. For the Gale Watch, strong winds can 
  cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

ANZ233>235-237-032200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.000000T0000Z-251204T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Rhode Island 
  Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-031200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.000000T0000Z-251203T1200Z/
Narragansett Bay-
236 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 2 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

795 
WHUS71 KBOX 031403
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
903 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

ANZ250-254-255-040315-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0023.251204T2000Z-251205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0040.251204T1800Z-251205T0900Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
903 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and 
  Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-251-040315-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-251203T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0023.251204T2000Z-251205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0040.251204T1800Z-251205T0900Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
903 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound and Massachusetts Bay 
  and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ256-040315-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.000000T0000Z-251204T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0023.251204T2000Z-251205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0040.251204T1800Z-251205T0900Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
903 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233>235-237-040315-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0123.000000T0000Z-251204T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0040.251204T1800Z-251205T0900Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
903 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Rhode Island 
  Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-040315-
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.A.0024.251204T1800Z-251205T0600Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
903 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 2 to 3 feet possible.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

Frank

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1257 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Monday brings the return to drier, colder and blustery weather. Low
pressure tracking south of New England brings accumulating snow to
interior portions of CT and MA Tuesday and Tuesday night, with rain
most likely in the lower elevations. Beyond that high pressure
brings dry weather to end the week except for a moisture starved
front Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message...

* Dry and seasonable with breezy winds.

High pressure crosses overhead Monday so subsidence beneath the high
will keep skies clear and dry while gusty NW winds will persist for
the first half of the day. Winds diminish through the afternoon as
the center of the high moves directly overhead and the pressure
gradient drops. This will lead to a decoupled boundary layer and
calm winds overnight which would lend to some radiational cooling
early before cloudcover increases as the high moves offshore. Lows
dip into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Coastal system Tuesday morning and night brings plowable snow
  to higher elevations of southern New England. Winter Storm
  Watch issued for the central and western regions of
  Massachusetts.

A mid level shortwave over the Great Plains on Monday then moves
into the eastern U.S. Tuesday. As it digs into the southeast it
induces a deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast that
lifts up along the New England coast Tuesday into Nova Scotia by
early Wednesday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement at this point
that the low tracks along or just inside the 70/40 benchmark.
However, there are several factors that point to this being a
largely high elevation snow/low elevation rain storm. First, this is
a progressive system with no high pressure over Quebec to block its
exit and keep sub-freezing air locked in at the surface. As such,
warm advection kicks in quickly on southerly LLJ; so while we start
off below freezing in the low levels temps will quickly warm above
freezing outside of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. This is
especially true along the south coast as SSTs remain in the 50s.
Even if precip starts as snow initially, accumulation is unlikely,
or, worst case would likely be some coatings on grassy surfaces. The
timing of this system (largely during the day) doesn't bode well for
snow chances in the low elevations. In these early season cases
"positive snow depth change" products are often more representative
in the numerical guidance. This setup featuring an open wave at 750
mb until downstream of SNE isn't typically a good indicator of a big
snow storm. Where we do see snow, snow ratios in the guidance have
trended down over the last 24-48 hours and model soundings indicate
max omega/lift misses the DGZ so excessively heavy snowfall rates
aren't expected. The trend with this forecast update was to lower
the snowfall totals based on the factors discussed above.

Regardless, there is a lot of moisture available (PWATs over 1.25"
over the Cape and islands) and strong forcing for ascent; we
previously mentioned the strong LLJ, and we'll also benefit from a
coupled upper jet streak (SNE placed between the RRQ of an exiting
jet and a LFQ of another). This will lead to rainfall totals of over
an inch in southeast MA by the time precip comes to an end early
Wednesday morning. While colder temps pulled in on the backside may
produce a flip to snow briefly on the tail end, QPF will be tapering
off and not expecting appreciable accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A few snow showers possible the second half of Thursday with
  the passage of an Arctic cold front, otherwise dry weather
  Wednesday through Friday. Turning unsettled by next weekend.

* Temperatures are trending well-below-average Wednesday through
  the upcoming weekend. An Arctic cold front Thursday night to
  bring the coldest air of the season, highs struggling to get
  above freezing by Friday afternoon.

Wednesday through Sunday is quiet and cold. 500mb pattern
becomes somewhat zonal across much of the CONUS with surface
high pressure builds in behind the departing coastal low on
Wednesday. Then an Arctic cold frontal passage late in the day
Thursday. Moisture is limited, PWATS less than 0.6" should be
enough for snow showers with the frontal passage. With the
Arctic cold front, 925mb temperatures fall to -20C to -15C
Thursday night, temperatures lower into the single digits to low
teens. But, a gusty northwest wind makes it feel much colder,
wind chills are below 0F across the higher terrain and well into
the single digits for the coastal plain. Towards the end of the
extended, guidance shows a more active pattern, leading to
unsettled conditions come next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update...

Through Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Lowering cigs late tonight. NW gusts to 25 kt, diminishing
mid-late afternoon, then becoming light to calm tonight.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Lowering to IFR-LIFR as precip overspreads the region, 12-15z in
west and 15-18z in the east. Ptype rain for coastal terminals,
snow for BAF and ORH, and SN to RA-SN mix at BED and BDL. E-NE
wind 5-15 kt. Minor accumulations at BDL-BAF-BED with more
significant accums possible at ORH.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.

Widespread IFR-LIFR improving to VFR late from west to east.
Interior snow in the evening may change to a period of snow
along the I-95 corridor, including BOS and PVD for a few hours
before ending around or just after midnight. Minor accum (up to
an inch) possible at BOS. NE wind becoming N-NW with gusts to
25 kt developing, with 30-40 kt gusts possible for
Cape/Islands.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Lower confidence in
timing of ptype changes.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Patchy BR.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

W winds become NW through the day today with gusts 25-30 kt
continuing. SCA for all waters. Winds quickly diminish through Mon
afternoon as high pres builds in from the west. Light winds Mon
evening becoming S-SE toward daybreak. Rough seas over southern
waters will begin to subside during Mon and fall below 5 ft by Mon
evening. Periods of rain ending tonight from W to E. Dry with good
vsbys Mon and Mon night.

Tuesday rain overspreads the waters and SSE winds early increase and
turn out of the east then northeast late as a low pressure system
crosses the southern waters. This leads to gusts as strong as 25-30
kts by late Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Widespread fog.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for MAZ005-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for MAZ010>012.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230-
     232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-
     250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...Belk/BW