Beach Hazards Statement 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

790 
WHUS43 KAPX 031319
CFWAPX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
919 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MIZ025-031-095-032130-
/O.CON.KAPX.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-250604T0400Z/
Benzie-Manistee-Western Mackinac-
919 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected due to high 
  waves up to 3 to 5 feet and rip currents.

* WHERE...Benzie, Manistee and Western Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water 
  and high waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Regardless of swim risk, hypothermia is
  possible due to very cold water temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

136 
WHUS43 KAPX 031851
CFWAPX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
251 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MIZ025-031-095-040300-
/O.CON.KAPX.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-250604T0400Z/
Benzie-Manistee-Western Mackinac-
251 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected due to high 
  waves up to 3 to 5 feet and rip currents.

* WHERE...Benzie, Manistee and Western Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water 
  and high waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Regardless of swim risk, hypothermia is
  possible due to very cold water temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

453 
WHUS43 KAPX 040231
CFWAPX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1031 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MIZ025-031-095-040400-
/O.CON.KAPX.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-250604T0400Z/
Benzie-Manistee-Western Mackinac-
1031 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected due to high 
  waves up to 3 to 5 feet and rip currents.

* WHERE...Benzie, Manistee and Western Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water 
  and high waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Regardless of swim risk, hypothermia is 
  possible due to very cold water temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1251 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts of 30+ mph on Tuesday
- Isolated strong/severe storms possible Tuesday evening
- Locally heavy rain possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Troughing across the intermountain west with induced upper
ridging sliding across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A deep
Pacific fed moisture plume extending from the desert southwest
northward along a frontal boundary across the central Plains. As
the upstream trough/boundary approaches the Great Lakes later
tonight into Tuesday, the gradient will tighten with
strengthening southwest flow advecting increasingly moist air
into the region. Much warmer air will also surge into the area
during this time, pushing temperatures well into the 80s in many
areas on Tuesday.

The combination of higher dewpoints and gradually increasing
winds will keep temperatures quite a bit milder tonight than
previous nights, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. An isolated
shower possible north of M-28 in eastern Upper but most areas
will be dry. Becoming increasingly breezy/windy on Tuesday with
deeper mixing likely supporting gusts of 30-40 mph during the
afternoon (especially closer to Lake Michigan). A few gusts
higher than this are certainly possible, although it may be
difficult to see sustained 40+ mph gusts in this warm, capped
environment. Thermal ridge overhead with 850mb temps of 16-18C
supporting highs well into the 80s in most areas (with
temperatuers near 90 possible in downslope areas over northeast
lower). Lack of model consensus on if any showers/storms will
develop tomorrow afternoon with lack of any real trigger and a
mid level cap. If we can reach convective temperatures in the
lower/mid 80s with increasing surface dewpoints, a few
showers/storms would be possible with CAPES of 1500+ joules. The
much better shower/storm chances ramp up Tuesday night and
continue into Wednesday as height falls arrive along with more
favorable kinematics.

Likely additional fire weather concerns on Tuesday with gusty winds
and very warm temperatures (and continued lower fuel moistures) -
although RH's will be on the way up with deeper moisture beginning
to advect into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Front slides through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with
a corridor of showers and thunderstorms.  Diminishing instability,
slower moving showers/storms and a deepening moisture profile point
more toward locally heavy rain possibilities than strong/severe
storms. PWAT's approaching 2" by Wednesday morning - which is
nearly 200% of normal. Front will be slow to fully clear the
area as additional shortwave energy slides along it, slowing the
eastward progression. This may keep precipitation around for a
good portion of the day. Much cooler than Tuesday, with highs
generally in the 60s to middle 70s.

Question marks for the second half of the week into the weekend
with a general weakness in the height fields keeping weak
troughing across the Great Lakes with a stalled out frontal
boundary across the northern Ohio Valley. This will likely keep
at least some level of unsettled weather for parts of the area
during this time. A stronger shortwave may push toward the Great
Lakes by the end of the weekend, possibly producing the best
chances of more widespread precipitation. Temperatures likely
near normal through this period, with highs in the 70s and lows
in the 40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through this
afternoon. Southwest winds will increase later this morning and
afternoon with sustained speeds around 10-15 kts with gusts between
20-30 kts into this evening. Occasional gusts higher than 30 kts
will be possible. The primary focus of the issuance period will be
the return of shower and storm chances late in the period -- likely
after 00Z Wed -- and associated lowered CIGs. TAF sites excluding
APN may drop to low MVFR/IFR by the end of the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ086>088-
     095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

&&

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-040300-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous levels of smoke from Canadian wildfires will impact
eastern upper Michigan through tonight. Please see the latest Air
Quality Advisory for additional details.

Combination of dry conditions and marginally gusty winds will result in
elevated wildfire danger into early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous levels of smoke from Canadian wildfires will impact
eastern upper Michigan on Tuesday. Please see the latest Air
Quality Advisory for additional details.

Combination of dry conditions and gusty winds will result in
elevated wildfire danger over northeast lower Michigan on Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-040300-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.