Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Topeka, KS

894 
WGUS73 KTOP 290009
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
709 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

KSC061-290215-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240629T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Geary KS-
709 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL GEARY COUNTY...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. 
Additionally, emergency management has reported water rescues in the 
area.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and emergency management.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Junction City and Grandview Plaza.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 310.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 9671 3907 9671 3907 9660 3895 9665
      3898 9688 3899 9693 3901 9695 3910 9694
      3910 9685 3909 9685 3909 9674 3908 9674
      3909 9673

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CP

471 
WGUS53 KTOP 290151
FFWTOP
KSC061-290515-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240629T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Topeka KS
851 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The National Weather Service in Topeka has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Geary County in east central Kansas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT.

* At 849 PM CDT, local law enforcement and trained spotters reported 
  flash flooding warned area. Between 4.5 and 6.5 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement and trained spotter reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Junction City and Grandview Plaza.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 310.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 9671 3907 9671 3907 9660 3895 9665
      3898 9688 3899 9693 3901 9695 3910 9694
      3910 9685 3909 9685 3909 9674 3908 9674
      3909 9673

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Teefey

243 
WGUS73 KTOP 290522
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

KSC061-290532-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240629T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Geary KS-
1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL GEARY COUNTY...

Flood waters continue to recede. Flash Flooding is no longer 
expected to pose a threat, however, flood warning product 0012 will 
remain in effect through 7 am CDT. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 9671 3907 9671 3907 9660 3895 9665
      3898 9688 3899 9693 3901 9695 3910 9694
      3910 9685 3909 9685 3909 9674 3908 9674
      3909 9673

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues until 7pm for portions of central and east
central KS, with heat indices around 105 degrees.

- Isolated thunderstorms in northeast KS late this afternoon into
this evening could be severe with damaging wind, hail, a tornado,
and brief heavy rain all possible.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible towards central KS after
midnight tonight with damaging wind, although confidence is lower in
this scenario.

- Up and down temperatures with off and on thunderstorm chances
  for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Surface cold front has started to move into north central KS early
this afternoon, with the associated trough axis stretching up
through eastern NE and western IA. 19Z water vapor imagery shows the
upper low spinning well north of us in eastern MT. Meanwhile, gusty
southerly winds and a slowly weakening LLJ have been pumping low-
level warmth and moisture into the area today. Subsidence behind
this morning's system has allowed skies to clear with heat indices
already in the low 100s in a few locations, so will keep the Heat
Advisory going until 7pm.

The main focus revolves around this evening's storm chances and
associated severe weather potential. The latest guidance suggests
that storms look rather isolated late this afternoon into this
evening with upper support being displaced well north of the area,
but think this time frame presents the greater severe risk compared
to the next chance later tonight into the overnight hours. The
atmosphere should continue to become more unstable the rest of this
afternoon, with the higher dew points and therefore highest
instability (3000-4000+ J/kg) concentrated over far northeast KS.
Think 21-00Z is the main time frame to watch for initiation in this
same area where convergence along the frontal boundary should be the
strongest. This instability plus 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should
be sufficient for supercells. The tornado threat is more uncertain
and looks to be quite localized, as forecast soundings and
hodographs show the best low-level turning near the frontal boundary
with a noticeable decrease in low-level shear and SRH just a short
distance away from the boundary. However, this threat should not be
ignored as locations near the boundary should see the best lift.
Additionally, any storms that develop in this area during this time
could produce locally heavy rainfall with Pwat above 2". The
moisture axis looks to be focused in far eastern KS into MO for much
of this evening before being pushed south into Saturday morning.

The later evening hours should see a bit of a break before the next
possible round of thunderstorms. A cluster of storms looks to
develop in eastern CO and move through western KS, which could move
into portions of central KS overnight, although confidence is not
high on a widespread severe risk as CAMs largely show these
weakening as they move into our area. Western KS has a much more
well-mixed BL to support damaging wind in that environment, whereas
forecast soundings in north central KS become less supportive of
that potential as we get into the late night hours. Still, storms
that manage to maintain themselves as they move eastward could
present a damaging wind threat with locally heavy rainfall. Any
lingering storms should taper off throughout the morning hours
Saturday.

Will need to continue to monitor where the frontal boundary sets up
Saturday to delineate the areas for highest storm chances and
associated severe risks in the afternoon and evening. The trend
today has pushed the boundary a little further south, with much of
the guidance placing it just south of the CWA by mid to late
afternoon. Thinking locations along/south of I-35 are the main areas
to watch if the boundary were to set up further north than currently
forecast. Damaging wind and perhaps small hail would be the main
hazards with storms.

Outside of rain/storms, temperatures look much more manageable
through the weekend with highs in the 80s to near 90 Saturday, and
mid 70s to low 80s Sunday. Unfortunately, the heat does look to make
a return for the early part of the next work week as the upper ridge
to our south expands northward, resulting in hot and humid
conditions again for Monday and Tuesday. There are some periodic
thunderstorm chances in the meantime, although the best chances look
to be Tuesday night into Wednesday when the next front moves through
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

South/southwest winds will continue to gust to 20-30 kt at
times this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening look to be
isolated, so have opted to leave mention out of TAFs with
confidence in them impacting terminals being too low. However,
if one develops, there could be some brief heavy rain with all
severe hazards possible. Cold front moves through and shifts
winds to the north/northwest late this evening and overnight.
Much of the latest guidance has the next round of storms
weakening as it moves out of western KS, so confidence that
they'll make it this far east is even lower than the first
round. VFR conditions are forecast overall.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
259 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

KSZ008>012-020-023-024-026-039-040-056-059-292000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
Jefferson-Shawnee-Douglas-Franklin-Anderson-
259 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas, north
central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms could redevelop late this afternoon into the evening.
If they do they could be capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and an isolated tornado. Any storm that forms will also be capable
of torrential rainfall.

Additional storms may move across western and into central Kansas
after midnight, bringing the threat for damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional storms could redevelop along and south of Interstate 35
Saturday late afternoon into the evening. These could also present
the threat for damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ021-022-034>038-054-055-058-292000-
Clay-Riley-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Lyon-Osage-Coffey-
259 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms could redevelop late this afternoon into the evening.
If they do they could be capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and an isolated tornado. Any storm that forms will also be capable
of torrential rainfall.

Additional storms may move across western and into central Kansas
later in the evening, bringing the threat for damaging winds, hail,
and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional storms could redevelop along and south of Interstate 35
Saturday late afternoon into the evening. These could also present
the threat for damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     Hail             2 SW Junction City      39.01N 96.86W
06/28/2024  M1.00 Inch       Geary              KS   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reporting quarter sized
            hail.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
622 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Hail             2 WNW Junction City     39.03N 96.87W
06/28/2024  M1.75 Inch       Geary              KS   Trained Spotter

            Quarter to golf ball size hail.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     Hail             2 NW Junction City      39.05N 96.86W
06/28/2024  E1.00 Inch       Geary              KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Hail             Junction City           39.03N 96.83W
06/28/2024  E1.50 Inch       Geary              KS   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reporting quarter to ping
            pong ball size hail in Junction City.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Grandview Plaza         39.03N 96.79W
06/28/2024  E70 MPH          Geary              KS   Emergency Mngr

            EM also reports trees down in Grandview
            Plaza.

&&

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Grandview Plaza    39.05N 96.76W
06/28/2024  M64 MPH          Geary              KS   ASOS

            KFRI ASOS recorded wind gust of 64 mph.

&&

IM