Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
709 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Some very patchy fog and low clouds around the region will
continue periodic restrictions for a few TAF sites over the next
hour or two, then VFR is expected through much of the day. Later
this afternoon, we could see a few thunderstorms near KTPA and
KPIE, but chances are rather low and confidence is not as high.
Another round of showers and storms is possible tonight, generally
ending around 12Z or a little later.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
U/L pattern will begin with the west coast rex block in the
process of breaking down, and quasi-zonal southern stream flow
undercutting a west coast cut-off low which will extend across
the southern tier of the U.S.  This then merges with the northern
stream along the eastern seaboard.

A northern stream disturbance will dig over the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley's today, and will move rapidly to the mid-Atlantic coast.
This will enhance an area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southeast U.S. along a frontal boundary, which will sink gradually
south through the day. Shower/thunderstorm activity will approach
the northern forecast area during the mid/late afternoon hours.
The U/L support will be in the process of pulling away from the
region as the storms approach the northern forecast area, however
a pocket of CAA aloft will advect over the northern/central
forecast area during the day increasing convective instability, so
can't rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm with potential for
damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has the northern nature coast
highlighted in a slight risk for severe storms today...with a
marginal risk extending south to about the I-4 corridor. Any
showers/thunderstorms should be on a weakening/dissipating trend
as they sink south toward the Tampa area and the remainder of the
central and southern forecast area during the evening and
overnight hours. Guidance is not overly impressive with regards to
areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity today, with best
chance across Levy county.

The frontal boundary will be located across south central Florida
on Saturday with a continued chance of thunderstorms over southwest
Florida and the southern interior. High pressure will build over
the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday with much drier
advecting across the region. Dew points in many areas will drop
into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday. The drier air will be short
lived as the next storm system develops over the mid Mississippi
Valley and boundary layer winds across the Florida peninsula
veer southeast allowing L/L moisture to rapidly recover. The next
frontal boundary will push approach the northern nature coast
early Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms...with the boundary sinking south across the central
forecast area during the day, and the area of
showers/thunderstorms sinking south along with it. As is
typically the case with systems in mid May, the U/L support will
be pulling away from the region as the boundary sinks south...and
areal coverage/strength of storms will be on a waning trend
during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night.

The boundary is expected to stall across the north
central/central Florida peninsula on Wednesday as it becomes
parallel to the U/L flow. Another weak U/L disturbance riding
through the southern stream flow will ride over the boundary on
Wednesday which should aid in generating scattered afternoon
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Slight increase in the gradient today may create LCL SCEC
conditions this afternoon and tonight. A frontal boundary will
create a chance of showers/thunderstorms over the northern and
possibly central waters this afternoon and evening. High pressure
will build over the waters on Saturday with winds subsiding and
veering northwest. Winds are expected to remain less than 15 knots
with seas 2 feet or less Sunday and Monday. A frontal boundary
will approach the northern waters on Tuesday with SCEC conditions
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Hot temperatures over the interior will continue to create minimum
afternoon relative humidity values in the 30 to 35 percent range
today and Saturday. Much drier air advecting across the region on
Sunday will allow minimum relative humidity values to drop below
35 percent across much of the forecast area away from the
coast...with the lowest RH values over the interior in the range
of 25 to 30 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  89  71 /  10  30  10   0
FMY  91  77  90  71 /   0  10  30   0
GIF  94  75  93  67 /  10  20  10   0
SRQ  88  76  89  69 /  10  30  10   0
BKV  91  70  90  61 /  20  30  10   0
SPG  87  79  87  74 /  10  30  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

Aviation...05/Carlisle
Previous...Oglesby