Alert archive / New York / High Wind Warnings in 2024
High Wind Warning 2, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this high wind warning at Apr 3, 2024, 4:29 AM EDT for 4 counties in Connecticut; Hudson County, New Jersey; 8 counties in New York. It took effect at Apr 3, 2024, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 17 hr. 27 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 3, 2024, 4:29 AM EDT (08:29 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 3, 2024, 11:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 4, 2024, 3:55 AM EDT
- In force
- 17 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Hudson County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 12:00 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Ene Hartsdale, NY | Power lines down on Central Avenue closing the road. |
| Apr 3, 2:33 PM EDT | HIGH SUST WINDS 49 | 1 Nnw Crown Heights, NY | |
| Apr 3, 2:33 PM EDT | HIGH SUST WINDS 49 | 1 Nnw Crown Heights, NY | |
| Apr 3, 2:56 PM EDT | HIGH SUST WINDS 44 | 2 N Glen Cove, NY | Mesonet station XBAY Bayville. |
| Apr 3, 2:56 PM EDT | HIGH SUST WINDS 44 | 2 N Glen Cove, NY | MESONET STATION XBAY BAYVILLE. |
| Apr 3, 3:00 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 2 Wnw Riverhead, NY | *** 1 INJ *** Tree down on a vehicle on Pulaski Street. |
| Apr 3, 3:00 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Armonk, NY | *** 1 FATAL *** Tree fell on car with occupant inside on Route 128 between School Street and Leisure Farm Drive. Time Estimated. |
| Apr 3, 4:06 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 62 | 2 N Glen Cove, NY | Mesonet station XBAY Bayville. |
| Apr 3, 4:06 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 62 | 2 N Glen Cove, NY | MESONET STATION XBAY BAYVILLE. |
| Apr 3, 4:18 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | 1 Se Amityville, NY | Mesonet station XHCK Great South Bay. |
| Apr 3, 4:18 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | 1 Se Amityville, NY | MESONET STATION XHCK GREAT SOUTH BAY. |
| Apr 3, 4:30 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Sse Harlem, NY | Downed tree branches at 187 Grand Concourse. |
| Apr 3, 4:30 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Sse Harlem, NY | DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AT 187 GRAND CONCOURSE. |
| Apr 3, 5:34 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | 3 W Hither Hills State, NY | Mesonet station XNAP Napeague. |
| Apr 3, 5:34 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | 3 W Hither Hills State, NY | MESONET STATION XNAP NAPEAGUE. |
| Apr 3, 7:15 PM EDT | FLOOD | 1 Ne Harrison, NJ | Retaining wall at corner of Harrison and Schuyler Avenues in Kearny downed due to heavy rainfall. |
| Apr 3, 8:00 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | Westhampton Airport, NY | ASOS station KFOK Westhampton Airport. |
| Apr 3, 9:25 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Stony Brook, NY | 60 ft maple tree snapped in half near root with multiple limbs down. |
| Apr 3, 9:25 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Stony Brook, NY | 60 FT MAPLE TREE SNAPPED IN HALF NEAR ROOT WITH MULTIPLE LIMBS DOWN. |
| Apr 3, 9:30 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 66 | Orient, NY | 66 mph wind gust measured on Davis Weather Station at the Cross Sound Ferry. |
| Apr 3, 9:41 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 68 | 2 N Glen Cove, NY | Mesonet station XBAY Bayville. |
| Apr 3, 10:55 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 62 | Fordham, NY | Mesonet station BRON Fordham. Elevation 188 feet. |
| Apr 3, 10:55 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 62 | Fordham, NY | New York State Mesonet Station Fordham. |
| Apr 3, 11:25 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 63 | Peconic, NY | Mesonet station SOUT Southold. |
| Apr 3, 11:25 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 63 | Peconic, NY | New York State Mesonet station Southold. |
| Apr 3, 11:46 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 64 | 2 N Glen Cove, NY | Mesonet station XBAY Bayville. |
| Apr 4, 12:50 AM EDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 2 Se Ridge, NY | Large tree snapped a third of the way from the trunk and fell through a fence. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 641 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -65 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 475 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
695 WWUS71 KOKX 030829 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-032100- /O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0003.240403T1500Z-240404T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0002.240403T1500Z-240404T1000Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ005>008-NJZ004-103>108-NYZ068>070-032100- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.240403T1500Z-240404T1000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ BR
4 follow-up statements
306 WWUS71 KOKX 032007 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 407 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-040600- /O.EXT.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240404T0600Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 407 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ005>008-NJZ004-103>108-NYZ068>070-040600- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240404T0600Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 407 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ DW
392 WWUS71 KOKX 040320 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1120 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-040900- /O.EXT.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240404T0900Z/ Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk- 1120 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. In New York, Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ009-010-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-040600- /O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240404T0600Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1120 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ005>008-040900- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240404T0900Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- 1120 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NJZ004-103>108-NYZ068>070-040600- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240404T0600Z/ Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 1120 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Western Bergen, Western Essex, and Western Union Counties. In New York, Northern Westchester, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ Goodman
781 WWUS71 KOKX 040558 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 158 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 CTZ009-010-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-040700- /O.EXP.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240404T0600Z/ Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 158 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Winds will continue to lighten into the early morning hours and the warning is being allowed to expire. $$ NJZ004-103>108-NYZ068>070-040700- /O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240404T0600Z/ Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 158 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Winds will continue to lighten into the early morning hours and the advisory is being allowed to expire. $$ CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-040900- /O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240404T0900Z/ Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk- 158 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. In New York, Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ CTZ005>008-040900- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240404T0900Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- 158 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London Counties. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ DR
825 WWUS71 KOKX 040755 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 355 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-040900- /O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240404T0900Z/ Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk- 355 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... Winds have lowered below High Wind Warning criteria and the warning is cancelled. $$ CTZ005>008-040900- /O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240404T0900Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- 355 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds have lowered below Wind Advisory criteria and the advisory is cancelled. $$ DSR
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Apr 3, 4:09 AM EDT, 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 4:09 AM EDT, 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
409 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front continues to approach today while low pressure
strengthens to the southwest early today then passes over or
just south of the area this evening through Thursday morning.
The low will drift slowly east of New England later this week
into Saturday, with high pressure building in early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level low and associated surface low continue to spin in
place over the Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Low pressure then forms along a frontal boundary near the Mid-
Atlantic extending southeast of the low over the Great Lakes.
This low looks to strengthen and pass over or just south of our
area deepening to around 985mb. This low will bring another
round of moderate to locally heavy rain as well as high winds.
Most 00Z model guidance is showing a strong LLJ anywhere from 60
to 70 kts at 925mb. Bufkit soundings show a pretty high
inversion with a lot of the strong winds from the LLJ both above
and below it, so its likely a lot of the strong winds will mix
down to the surface. Have issued a High Wind Warning for all of
Long Island, NYC, coastal CT and southern Westchester and
Hudson Counties. In these areas, expecting a period from mainly
Wednesday afternoon through the first half of Wednesday night
where wind gusts could potentially reach 60 mph. Elsewhere
(except Orange County and Western Passaic County) have issued a
Wind Advisory for 45 to 50 mph wind gusts.
As previously mentioned, this low will also bring another round
of moderate to locally heavy rain to the area, as well as the
potential for isolated thunderstorms.
An additional 2 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected this
morning through early Thursday with locally higher totals of
3-3.5 inches possible. The bulk of this rain will fall Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A period of higher rainfall rates will be
possible Wednesday evening and early night with most around
0.5"/hr. Higher rates of 0.75"/hr will be possible.The best
location for these higher rates will be in NE NJ, NYC metro and
LI. This is the same area that a Flood Watch has been issued
for. The 00Z HREF shows a 90% 10-km neighborhood probability of
at least 0.5"/hr with some areas of 20-40% of seeing 0.75"/hr.
SOme of the higher rates may be possible in isolated
thunderstorms and could be as high as 1"/hr. Poor drainage
flooding and urban low lying flooding is possible along with
minor river flooding across quick responding rivers. WPC has
upgraded NE NJ, the NYC metro and LI to a slight risk of
excessive rainfall.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe
criteria as instability is real marginal. MUCAPE values will
likely only be up to a few hundred J/kg, though some models are
showing isolated areas of higher MUCAPE. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained the "general thunderstorm" area in their
outlook.
This low will also bring coastal flooding to the area. See
the tides/coastal flood section below.
As the low pulls away, cold air gets wrapped up into the system
and precip may end as a wintry mix across far northern and
western locations. At this time, there is potential for snow and
sleet to mix in. There will likely be little to no accumulation
due to marginal surface temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low with meander off of the New England coast Thursday night
into Friday as it gradually weakens. This will leave general
cloud cover in the area with a slight chance for rain showers
through Thursday night into the day on Friday. Winds will not
meet hazard criteria, but may be breezy at times with the low
meandering nearby.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A blocky pattern will persist through the period courtesy of a
developing omega block over the CONUS and southern/central
Canada. Its eastern leg (the upper low associated with this
week's storm) will be moving across Thu night, accompanied by
snow/rain showers especially in the evening. Another fairly good
chance for showers will come on Friday as a mid level vort max
trailing the upper low moves across. This disturbance will have
some low level instability to work with as model fcst sounding
show steep sfc-H7 lapse rates and available moisture above the
LCL, so have bumped up NBM PoP to at least 30 percent
throughout, and while fcst does not include this could not
entirely rule out some isolated thunder and/or graupel/small
hail with some of this activity.
Another vort max pinwheeling around the slow moving upper low E
of New England should bring another chance for showers on Sat
mainly across S CT and ern Long Island. Then fair and milder wx
likely for Sun-Tue with sfc high pressure finally building in
and heights rising aloft. Siding more with slower ECMWF vs
faster GFS solution with a weakening upper ridge axis sliding
across, and some mid level shortwave energy riding atop the
ridge axis in the afternoon. This means there could be a fair
amt of bkn high clouds present during the time of the solar
eclipse in the afternoon.
Temps a few degrees below normal Thu night through Sat should
moderate to near normal on Sunday, then warm up to a few
degrees above normal Mon-Tue, with highs in the lower/mid 60s
both days.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION EVENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A strengthening coastal storm approaches today and moves across or
just south of the region tonight into early Thursday.
Expect mainly IFR conditions with rain for much of the TAF period.
There could be occasional time windows of MVFR as well as lulls in
the rain. There is isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon
into tonight.
Increasing easterly winds and wind gusts today through this evening.
Winds are generally 10-15 kt into early morning, 20-25 kt for the
rest of this morning, 25-30 kt this afternoon into evening. Gusts
likewise generally near 20-25 kt into early morning, 30-35 kt for
the rest of this morning, 40-45 kt much of this afternoon, 40-50 kt
late this afternoon into this evening.
Late tonight, winds generally become more NE and decrease to near 20-
25 kt with gusts decreasing to near 30-35 kt.
Low level easterly jet moves in late this afternoon into this
evening with winds of 50-55 kt at 2kft for the coastal terminals.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the TAF period for changing cigs/vis and
possible fluctuations in flight categories.
Gusts may fluctuate between occasional and frequent before becoming
prevailing by 09Z-12Z today.
Thunderstorms too low confidence in timing and location to put in
TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late Tonight: IFR or lower in rain. The rain could be mixed with wet
snow at KSWF. Winds generally become more NE and decrease to near 15-
20 kt with gusts decreasing to near 25-35 kt. Peak gust to 40 kt
possible.
Thursday: MVFR or lower with lingering rain, possibly mixed with wet
snow at KSWF. NW gusts near 20 kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers. NW flow with gusts
15-20kt.
Saturday: MVFR possible with northerly gusts near 20-25 kt.
Sunday: VFR with northerly gusts near 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A Storm Warning is then in effect starting Wednesday morning on
all waters. Strong low pressure will pass over or just south of
the waters and bring a period of 50 kt wind gusts, mainly from
Wednesday afternoon through he first half of Wednesday night.
Waves on the ocean waters likely reach 15 to 17 ft on the ocean
waters and 9 to 11 ft across the Sound.
Winds drop below Gale criteria by Thursday morning, with
lingering SCA criteria mainly in the form of elevated ocean
seas persisting into Thu night-Fri night. Some gusts up to 25 kt
are also possible in NW flow Fri afternoon and early evening
on most waters, and later into Fri night on the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
An additional 2 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected this
morning through early Thursday with locally higher totals of
3-3.5 inches possible. The bulk of this rain will fall Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A period of higher rainfall rates will be
possible Wednesday evening and early night with most around
0.5"/hr. Higher rates of 0.75"/hr will be possible.The best
location for these higher rates will be in NE NJ, NYC metro and
LI. This is the same area that a Flood Watch has been issued
for. The 00Z HREF shows a 90% 10-km neighborhood probability of
at least 0.5"/hr with some areas of 20-40% of seeing 0.75"/hr.
SOme of the higher rates may be possible in isolated
thunderstorms and could be as high as 1"/hr. Poor drainage
flooding and urban low lying flooding is possible along with
minor river flooding across quick responding rivers. WPC has
upgraded NE NJ, the NYC metro and LI to a slight risk of
excessive rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Local minor flooding benchmarks may be reached, or just touched,
late tonight/early Wednesday morning along the Long Island south
shore back bays.
Around 2.5-3 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flood Wed
aft/eve and around 3.5-4 ft for moderate coastal flooding.
With easterly winds ramping up through gale to storm force
during the time of high tide, as well as building wave action,
widespread moderate coastal flood thresholds are likely to be
eclipsed along the southern and eastern bays of Long Island and
along the western Sound. Elsewhere widespread minor coastal
flooding likely. In addition, the combination of heavy rain and
elevated water levels on Wednesday afternoon into evening may
cause localized flash flooding along some shoreline roads and
properties.
Easterly winds gradually subside late Wed night as low pressure
moves over the area, and then switch to NW gales behind the low
Thu AM. High easterly swells will likely inhibit drainage,
particularly bay areas, bringing potential for widespread
moderate flooding (locally major for the southern and eastern
bays of Long Island) late Wednesday night into early Thu
morning. The coverage and areas of greatest coastal flood
impact will be highly dependent on track of the low, and timing
of the wind shift from easterly SCA/Gales to northwest gales.
Forecast is based on a 75th percentile of Stevens, blended
with ETSS, STOFS guidance, which applies a bit of margin for
safety. This will be refined over the next 24 hours.
Along the oceanfront, breaking waves of 6-10 ft Wednesday into
Thursday morning, along with elevated water levels, will
result in widespread beach flooding and erosion. Scattered areas
of dune erosion with localized overwashes are likely during the
times of high tide Wed afternoon into Thursday morning.
Along Long Island Sound, breaking waves of 3-7 ft Wednesday
evening, along with elevated water levels, will result in
beach erosion with damage to shoreline structures possible. Wave
splashover over bulkheads and seawalls will likely exacerbate
flooding of shoreline roadways and properties. A similar threat
exists for the twin forks, with breaking waves of 4-8 ft
Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for
CTZ005>008.
High Wind Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late
tonight for CTZ009>012.
Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
Thursday for CTZ009-010.
Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
for CTZ011-012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ068>070.
High Wind Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late
tonight for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
Thursday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
Thursday for NYZ072-074-075.
Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
Thursday for NYZ079>081-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
this evening for NYZ178.
Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM to 7 AM EDT Thursday for
NYZ178.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for
NJZ004-103>108.
High Wind Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late
tonight for NJZ006.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
Thursday for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350.
Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 3:27 PM EDT, 13 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 CTZ005>008-NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ068>070-031930- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NJZ104-106-108-031930- Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NJZ002-NYZ067-031930- Western Passaic-Orange- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-031930- Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Westchester-Bronx- Northwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NJZ006-NYZ072-074-075-031930- Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Coastal Flood Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ178-031930- Southern Queens- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Coastal Flood Advisory. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ079>081-179-031930- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Southern Nassau- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Coastal Flood Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. CTZ011-012-031930- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Coastal Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ335-338-345-350-353-355-031930- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ331-332-340-031930- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- 327 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 3:49 AM EDT | Flood Watch | OKX | Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Union | 24 hr |
| Apr 3, 3:12 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester | 19 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:58 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | OKX | Bronx | 32 min |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in New York, 2024High Wind Warnings in Connecticut, 2024High Wind Warnings in New Jersey, 2024Every high wind warning in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.