Tornado Warning 37, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
444 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

A convergent band of rain on the back side of an area of low
pressure developing off the east coast of Florida will lift
northward through the day today as Milton slowly moves off the
Yucatan coast. Pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible due to
the rich tropical moisture present across the region, though gusty
winds are not expected today. A lull in the rainfall is expected
in the evening and early overnight hours. Severe weather is not
expected today. While rain and cloud cover will keep highs in the
low to middle 80s, the abundant moisture could result in some
areas seeing heat indices in the 90s. While this does not pose a
significant heat illness threat, extra caution should be used
during physically exerting activities outdoors (i.e. hurricane
preparations).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Hurricane Milton Hazards:
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)

Storm Surge: There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge
for portions of the Southwest Florida coast. Storm surge warnings
are in effect for coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe County. The
surge will range from 4 to 7 feet over coastal Collier County and 3
to 5 feet over Mainland Monroe County. The peak of the storm surge
will most likely be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Winds: Winds will increase across South Florida on Wednesday and
these winds will peak on Wednesday night into Thursday as Hurricane
Milton makes its closest pass the region. The highest probabilities
of tropical storm force winds will be along the Gulf Coast of
Southwest Florida. Tropical storm force winds will also be possible
across the rest of South Florida especially in gusts.

Flooding: Heavy rainfall is possible on Tuesday ahead of
Hurricane Milton followed by a brief lull in rainfall late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. While not expected to be quite as
widespread as on Sunday and Monday, Milton's outer rainbands will
begin to reach Southwest Florida late Tuesday night and will
begin to spiral across the area through early Thursday. Heavy
downpours will be likely within rainbands with additional rainfall
totals of 2-4" with localized totals up to 7" possible through
Thursday.

Tornadoes: As Milton progresses eastward towards South Florida,
the first outer bands will reach the Southwest Florida coast
beginning late Tuesday evening. A few isolated tornadoes will be
possible within these rainbands as they spiral across the area
from west to east through early Thursday morning.

Remainder of the period:
(Friday Through Monday)

Lingering rain chances are expected through the remainder of the
period, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

High-end IFR to low-end MVFR ceilings will prevail overnight with
scattered showers across extreme south Florida. A band of rain
will lift through all of south Florida today and periodically
reduce at least ceilings to high-end IFR. A return to MVFR
ceilings is forecast tomorrow afternoon and night in the wake of
the band of rain. Generally westerly winds through the first half
of the TAF will switch easterly by tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Tropical storm conditions will become possible across our Gulf
waters on Wednesday and our Atlantic waters Wednesday night into
Thursday. While seas will subside through Thursday night along the
Gulf, seas will build quite significantly across the east coast as
swell on the back side of Milton opposes the Gulf Stream. Expect
these seas to peak on Friday and mostly subside by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

With the slowing of Milton, the high risk for rip currents along
the east and west coasts will likely hold off until Wednesday.
While the risk will subside for the Gulf on Thursday night, it
will persist through the weekend along the east coast due to the
aforementioned swell.

Additionally, there is a potential for dangerous and damaging surf
conditions late this week into the weekend. This is most likely
across the Palm Beaches, but could spread to Broward county
beaches as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  77  89  79 /  80  50  80  60
West Kendall     86  77  88  79 /  80  50  80  60
Opa-Locka        87  77  89  80 /  80  50  80  70
Homestead        87  78  89  80 /  80  50  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  85  77  88  78 /  80  50  80  70
N Ft Lauderdale  85  77  89  79 /  80  50  70  70
Pembroke Pines   87  78  90  81 /  80  50  80  70
West Palm Beach  85  76  89  78 /  90  60  80  70
Boca Raton       86  76  89  78 /  80  60  80  70
Naples           84  77  88  79 /  80  80  80  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Watch for FLZ063-066-069-070.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066-069-070-075.

     Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ069-075.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ610.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610.

     Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ656-676.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Harrigan/Caracozza/Rizzuto/Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
449 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
090900-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
449 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Flooding: Refer to flood watch for information on potential heavy
rainfall and flooding this week.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk for rip currents along area
beaches today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous conditions associated with Hurricane Milton will begin to
impact portions of South Florida in the late Tuesday through
Thursday time frame. Refer to the latest watches and warnings and
hurricane local statements for more information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
1118 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Miami Beach        25.80N 80.14W
10/07/2024                   AMZ630             FL   Emergency Mngr

            Significant Standing water of 3 to 6 inches
            at 1801 Purdy Ave.

&&

BNB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
1121 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     Flash Flood      3 ESE Miami Shores      25.86N 80.14W
10/07/2024                   Miami-Dade         FL   Emergency Mngr

            Significant Standing Water 3 to 6 inches at
            1975 71ST street.

&&

BNB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1239 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

FLZ069-070-081715-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
1239 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Collier
County through 115 PM EDT...

At 1238 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a waterspout
over the Gulf of Mexico, 8 miles southwest of Cape Romano, or 12
miles southwest of Marco Island, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts of up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marco Island, Everglades City, Golden Gate Estates, Plantation
Island, Carnestown, Cape Romano, Marco Island Airport, Copeland,
Royal Palm Hammock, South Blocks Golde, Fakahatchee Strand State
Preserve, Picayune Strand State Forest, Port Of The Island,
Intersection I-75 And Everglades Blvd, Key Marco, Fiddlers Creek,
Cape Romano Aquatic Preserve, and Goodland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds can touch down and produce waterspouts. Although
typically weak and short lived, a landfalling waterspout can cause
property damage and serious injury.

&&

LAT...LON 2601 8175 2599 8174 2619 8156 2587 8123
      2583 8137 2589 8148 2584 8153 2585 8153
      2590 8156 2590 8163 2594 8165 2584 8168
      2589 8171 2592 8168 2594 8169 2592 8169
      2591 8173 2601 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 228DEG 40KT 2579 8180

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
LIGHTNING...EXCESSIVE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JS