Red Flag Warning 13, NWS North Platte, NE

174 
WWUS83 KLBF 050148
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
848 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

NEZ204-050300-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240805T0200Z/
Eastern Panhandle/Crescent Lake NWR-
748 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 204...

Temperatures have and winds have fallen, allowing humidity values
to recover above critical levels. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning
will be allowed to expire.

$$

NMJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and mostly dry conditions continue through early week.
  Near critical to critical fire weather conditions expected
  across portions of northwestern and western Nebraska.

- Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms across portions
  of north central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow night.

- A change in the upper level pattern brings a cooler, wetter
  pattern mid to late week, with appreciable chances of
  precipitation across the region.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Upper level ridging remains in place across the western United
States. Western Nebraska is currently under fairly weak northerly
flow aloft. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over
eastern North Dakota, with a cold front trailing through western
South Dakota. A weak surface boundary is noted over north central
Nebraska, with a slight wind shift across the Sandhills. On
satellite, while most of the region remains mostly clear, developing
cumulus is observed over portions of northwestern Nebraska with
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over north central
Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

The weak surface boundary across north central Nebraska will act as
the focus for potential showers and thunderstorms the rest of this
afternoon and evening. The environment is quite similar to
yesterday, with respectable amounts of CAPE, around 1000 to 1500
J/kg, and marginal shear around 20 kts. Sufficient moisture exists
to get convection initiated, as seem on satellite this afternoon.
Storms should remain mostly isolated in nature, however the lack of
shear limits the threat of more organized convection. Although
convection should remain mostly isolated, a few of the stronger
storms may have the potential to produce gusty winds and large hail.
Have kept PoPs at a slight chance (20 percent) due to the potential
spotty nature of storms and precipitation along the boundary.

Another low pressure system is expected to form off the lee of the
Rockies tomorrow, increasing the wind potential across portions of
western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Latest temperature guidance
continues to trend upward, so slightly bumped temperatures another 1
to 2 degrees. This latest change brings widespread upper 90s to
lower 100s across most of the region. Fairly low relative humidity
values are expected across most of the region tomorrow afternoon,
with the lowest relative humidity values expected across
northwestern Nebraska. The low is expected to track through South
Dakota, with another surface boundary potentially being the focus
for showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern
Nebraska. Have also maintained a slight chance for PoPs for
Sunday night, as potential showers and thunderstorms should
remain more isolated in nature. Though severe weather is not
expected tomorrow afternoon, the main concern with thunderstorms
will be the introduction of a dry lightning threat. With all of
this combined, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected across western and northwestern Nebraska
tomorrow afternoon. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Zone 204 effective Sunday morning through Sunday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Models continue to bring an upper level system across southern
Canada starting Monday afternoon. As this system pushes further
inland, it will help to flatten out the ridge over Nebraska and
bring a return of more zonal flow aloft. A cold front is expected to
push through on Monday, which should help to cool temperatures a bit
across most of the region. Still believe southern portions of the
state will have the potential to remain hot, with temperatures well
into the mid to upper 90s. By Tuesday, however, temperatures are
expected to get as high as the lower 90, with mid 80s possible.

Upper level support should help to generate a few passing surface
systems, which bring fairly appreciable chances of precipitation
(around 40 to 60 percent) from Tuesday night through the end of the
week. In addition to the precipitation chances, cooler temperatures
are also expected across the region, with growing confidence that
high temperatures will only be in the 70s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

A few aviation weather concerns arise for western and north
central Nebraska terminals through the forecast period. First,
low stratus will build into northern Neb (VTN) through the
early morning and may result in IFR at times. After sunrise,
southerly winds strengthen and will gust 20+ kts by midday and
then gradually wane toward sunset. Lastly, isolated
thunderstorms will affect portions of western and northern Neb
this evening and will be capable of gusty erratic winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Sunday through Sunday
evening for NEZ204.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
316 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-042030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
316 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 /216 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect across north central Nebraska,
generally affecting areas along and north of highway 20. The hazard
is heat indices around 100 degrees and heat related illness.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in the same area late
this afternoon and this evening. The primary hazards are wind damage
and large hail.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue until early this
evening across western Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Sunday across parts of the
Nebraska Panhandle. The concern is south winds gusting to around 30
mph, humidity near 15 percent and the potential for dry lightning
from thunderstorms Sunday evening. The risk of severe weather is low
but storms may be capable of gusty winds.

Temperatures will rise into the 90s to around 100 Sunday with heat
index values approaching 100 in some areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.