Beach Hazards Statement 9, NWS Green Bay, WI

224 
WHUS43 KGRB 231552
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1052 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

WIZ022-240000-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0009.240823T2100Z-240824T0600Z/
Door-
1052 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...High waves and strong currents expected.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected. Strong 
  currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves 
  can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

297 
WHUS43 KGRB 232155
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
455 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

WIZ022-240600-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-240824T0600Z/
Door-
455 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...High waves and strong currents expected.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door County.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected. Strong 
  currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves 
  can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

990 
WHUS43 KGRB 240306
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1006 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

WIZ022-240600-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-240824T0600Z/
Door-
1006 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...High waves and strong currents expected.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door County.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected. Strong 
  currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves 
  can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
318 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance of thunderstorms across northern WI through
  Saturday, but severe storms are not expected.

- Temperatures will remain above average through the middle of
  next week. Monday looks to be the warmest day, with highs in
  the mid 80s to low 90s. Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s
  will be possible.

- Next chances for scattered rain/storms arrive Monday afternoon.
  Monitoring the potential for some stronger storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday

A combination of 825-700 mb WAA, a short-wave trough, LFQ of a
70-80 kt upper jet and weak elevated instability within a 850 mb
thermal ridge was producing an area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms across north central WI early this morning. Expect
this convection to shift east and exit far NE WI toward daybreak.
Look for small chances of showers and storms to continue across
northern WI through Saturday, as weak short-wave energy brushes
through the area, a weak boundary persists, and an instability
axis resides. Precise timing and areal coverage will be tough to
pinpoint, and despite the current dry forecast farther south,
there is potential for a few stray showers. There will be
potential for fog late tonight into early Saturday morning,
mainly over north central and parts of far NE WI.

South to southwest winds will pick up this afternoon, and continue
for some lakeshore locations into the evening. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to
Washington Island from 21z/Fri-06z/Sat, and Beach Hazards
Statement is in effect for Door County for the same time.

Highs will be in the middle 70s to around 80 today, and lower to
middle 80s (slightly cooler lakeside) on Saturday. Lows tonight
should be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday

Confidence is increasing in heat being a concern later this
weekend and into the beginning of next week as highs surge into
the low 90s across central Wisconsin. Heat indices in the mid to
upper 90s may be in the realm of possibility as models advertise
surface dewpoints in the mid 70s. Next chances for rain/storms
will then accompany a cold frontal passage Monday evening into
Tuesday morning.

Temperatures... Expect summer weather to make a rude comeback
through early next week as a heat ridge settles in over the
Midwest. Persistent warm and moist southerly flow will result in
850 mb temperatures climbing into the low to mid 20s Celsius.
Combined with large-scale subsidence under the ridge, surface
temperatures are now expected to reach the low 90s across central
Wisconsin Monday afternoon. Given a strong/consistent signal for
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, would venture to say that heat
indices approaching 100 degrees would not be out of the question
during this time. Consequently, portions of central Wisconsin to
the Fox Valley are now under a major risk for heat-related impacts
on Monday. As the ridge axis moves over the Great Lakes mid-week,
ensemble consensus is still up in the air on whether or not
impactful heat will linger into Tuesday. This is largely due to
timing differences about how quickly the ridge breaks down as an
embedded shortwave propagates across the upper Mississippi Valley.
Regardless, expect temperatures to drop down to near normal by
the end of next week.

Rain/storm chances... Next chances for scattered rain/storms are
expected to arrive Monday afternoon and evening as the
aforementioned heat and humidity maximize instability ahead of an
approaching cold front. Current thinking is that timing of the
front will play a role in how strong storms are able to get. Although
it is still too soon to pinpoint severe weather potential, CAPEs
exceeding 2,000 J/kg combined with appreciable deep layer shear
hint at the possibility for some organized storms. Inverted V
soundings and steep mid-level lapse rates would indicate wind and
hail threats. This being said, SPC has highlighted portions of
central to north-central Wisconsin under a Day 5 15% severe
weather risk. Will continue to monitor as we get closer to Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

An upper level disturbance could produce scattered showers or
thunderstorms mostly north of a CWA to MNM line overnight into
Friday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through
Friday night with increasing middle and high clouds.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through late tonight
for WIZ022.
&&

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch/Goodin
AVIATION.......Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
335 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-240845-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
335 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will be possible across northern Wisconsin
through the period, but severe weather is not expected.

Hazardous swimming conditions due to high waves and strong
currents are anticipated on eastern Door County beaches late this
afternoon and evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms across northern
Wisconsin on Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning. We are monitoring the potential for strong to severe
storms, as a very unstable air mass will be in place.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-240845-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
335 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected on Lake Michigan
from Sturgeon Bay to Washington Island late this afternoon and
evening, due to gusty south southwest winds and building waves.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at times north of Sturgeon
Bay.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Storms may be possible at times Monday and Tuesday. Any storm may
pose a threat to mariners.

Kieckbusch/Goodin