Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Current radar loop shows mainly showers with some isolated
thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Expecting these storms
to continue through the evening hours then begin to taper off by
Midnight. A fairly large upper level ridge over the area is keeping
a cap on things and not letting the storms become severe today. This
ridge will begin to slide a bit SE into the northern Gulf allowing
the upper level flow to become NWLY through Mon evening.  At the
surface there is a weak high pressure wedge that has set up mainly
across eastern portions of the state.

Deep moisture will continue across the area through the short term
even with the upper level NWLY flow setting up. The CAD wedge will
be scoured out through Monday, and dewpoints in the mid 70s and
precipitable water values over 2 inches will move across eh entire
area.

While QPF totals through the short term are in the 1-2 inch range,
it will definitely be possible to see locally higher totals,
especially in western Georgia and where any training of stronger
storms occurs. This is reflected by the WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook, which indicates a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash
flooding in far northwest Georgia today and across much of north
Georgia Monday.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Tuesday morning's upper level pattern shows a fairly shallow trough
over the Appalachia's and a broad ridge over the central CONUS and
even into the Southwest. Upper level flow is weak with the strongest
jet streak cresting the ridge over the northern plains at about
70kts. Moisture will remain entrenched across the Southeast with
PWATS of 1.75 to 2.25 inches. The classic summer time pattern of
diurnally driven thunderstorms will continue through much of the
longterm, though the weak NW flow may mean a little more
organization of loosely clustered thunderstorms. With the ridge as
broad as it is, the best MCS maintenance will likely remain to our
north, however this does not rule out the potential for continued
convection into north GA with significant cold pools in the Ohio and
Tennessee River valleys. The main hazards with any thunderstorms
would be gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Most areas will see less
than 0.5" of rain through Wednesday, however given the high PWATs
thunderstorms will likely become locally efficient rain makers and
could produce locally high precipitation rates (2+"/hr) and
accumulations.

NW flow will help to push some drier air into the area, dropping
PWATs closer to 1.5" to 2.0". This is still closer to the 75% of
climatological PWATs for this time of the year, so conditions will
still be a little soupy. Drier conditions and building high pressure
will mean more spriest thunderstorms activity relative to the the
last week. Continued 30% PoPs will likely remain given diurnal
heating and moisture availability. The main hazard through the end
of the week will be heat indices. Temperatures in the mid to upper
90s returns by Thursday, and dewpoints in the 70s could see heat
indices above 104+ for a large portion of the CWA.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

SHRA/TSRA popping up all across the area including the TAF sites.
Things are mainly in the MVFR to VFR range but have seen some IFR
ceilings and VSBYs in and around some of he stronger showers.
This should continue through the evening hours with precipitation
tapering off by Midnight. Will see IFR ceilings develop over
night with another round of showers and thunderstorms
Monday...similar to Today. Winds have been mainly out of the east
at 19kt or less. They will slowly turn to the SE tonight then to
the SW Monday. Still expecting speed to stay 10kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  87  71  91 /  50  70  40  50
Atlanta         71  87  72  90 /  60  80  40  70
Blairsville     66  82  66  85 /  70  80  50  80
Cartersville    71  87  72  90 /  60  80  50  70
Columbus        74  91  74  93 /  30  80  30  80
Gainesville     71  85  72  89 /  60  80  40  60
Macon           73  89  71  92 /  30  70  40  60
Rome            71  88  73  91 /  60  80  50  70
Peachtree City  72  89  71  90 /  50  70  40  70
Vidalia         73  90  73  92 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
251 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and evening. A few strong storms may produce frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding will be
possible, especially across northwest Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and
evening, can be expected each day through Saturday. The greatest
coverage of thunderstorms is expected Sunday and Monday. A few
storms each day could become strong, capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall with localized flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.