Wind Advisory 5, NWS Cleveland, OH

266 
WWUS71 KCLE 150231
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
931 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-151045-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240215T2100Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, 
Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, and Ashland
931 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-151045-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0000Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
and Erie
931 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie County.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

198 
WWUS71 KCLE 150822
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
322 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

PAZ002-151630-
/O.EXB.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0600Z/
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, and Union City
322 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Erie County.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-151630-
/O.EXT.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, 
Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, and Ashland
322 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-151630-
/O.EXT.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0600Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
and Erie
322 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie County.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

974 
WWUS71 KCLE 150946
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
446 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-151800-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, 
Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, and Ashland
446 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts 
  up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-151800-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0600Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
Erie, Edinboro, Corry, and Union City
446 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 
  up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

046 
WWUS71 KCLE 151502
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-152315-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, 
Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, and Ashland
1002 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 
  50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-152315-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.240215T1600Z-240216T0600Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
Erie, Edinboro, Corry, and Union City
1002 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

887 
WWUS71 KCLE 151650
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1150 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

OHZ013-014-160000-
/O.EXA.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0000Z/
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Including the cities of Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, 
Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, 
and Roaming Shores
1150 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
  50 mph.

* WHERE...Geauga and Ashtabula Inland Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-160000-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, 
Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, and Ashland
1150 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 
  50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-160100-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0600Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
Erie, Edinboro, Corry, and Union City
1150 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds becoming west 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

867 
WWUS71 KCLE 152025
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>020-027>030-160000-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, 
Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, Roaming Shores, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, and Ashland
325 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-160430-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0600Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
Erie, Edinboro, Corry, and Union City
325 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds becoming west 20 to 30 mph with gusts up
  to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

179 
WWUS71 KCLE 160000
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>020-027>030-160100-
/O.EXP.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, 
Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, Roaming Shores, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, and Ashland
700 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 40 mph will remain possible 
over the next couple of hours before diminishing later this 
evening and overnight.

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-160600-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0600Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
Erie, Edinboro, Corry, and Union City
700 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

616 
WWUS71 KCLE 160219
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
919 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-160330-
/O.CAN.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240216T0600Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
Erie, Edinboro, Corry, and Union City
919 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 35 mph will remain possible
over the next few hours before diminishing overnight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
112 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in over the region today. The
next weather system will quickly arrive Thursday. A clipper like
low pressure system and cold front will bring a round of light
precipitation Thursday. Another fast moving low pressure system
and cold front will bring additional chances for light snow
showers Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12:30 PM Update...

The flurries over NE Ohio and NW PA are dissipating on track
early this afternoon, but cloud cover will continue to be slow
to clear out. Maintained mostly cloudy skies for another couple
of hours over NE Ohio and NW PA, finally giving way to some
sunshine by late afternoon and evening.

9:30 AM Update...

The light lake-effect snow showers and flurries will probably
take until early afternoon to completely dissipate given NW
flow across the wide open lakes and 850 mb temps of -13C. Fairly
dry air and a lowering inversion will not allow this to amount
to anything more than a trace to perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches
across the highest elevations of Erie and Crawford Counties in
NW PA. Expanded slight chance PoPs from north central Ohio
through NW PA this morning to cover these snow showers and
flurries, gradually ending this afternoon as surface high
pressure finally builds into the Ohio Valley. Also increased
cloud cover in these areas through early afternoon based on
satellite loops and the lingering snow showers.

630 am update...
We only made a couple minor tweaks in the forecast for the next
couple hours this morning. The slightly adjustment was to add
some scattered lingering snow flurries and spotty snow showers
for north east and north central Ohio now through about 14z or 9am
EST. There are still some lingering snow showers on radar but
those pockets of flurries should quickly fade away shortly
after sunrise. We have already seen a nice decrease in the lake
effect cloud cover across northwest Ohio into central Ohio this
morning. We also made a few adjustments cloud cover forecast
through the rest of this morning with clouds scattered out a
little quicker. That means we will get to enjoy a little more
sunshine today. Despite temperatures being seasonable cool
today, it will be a very nice day to step outside for a little
bit or even take the dog for a nice walk this afternoon.

Previous discussion...
We are still seeing scattered snow flurries and pockets of
light lake effect snow showers over parts of northeast Ohio. The
area still seeing some of those snow shower is mainly around
the Cleveland metro and eastward towards the Youngstown area.
The radar imagery this morning is a little deceiving and picking
up a little more of the precip aloft but not all of is reaching
the ground. We expect these snow showers to quickly fade away
around sunrise. We are not really expecting any impact
accumulation, maybe just a light dusting if any.

A weak area of high pressure over northern Indiana this morning
will build in over our local area today. We are already seeing
our the winds slowly decreasing this morning. Winds will
eventually become light and variable by this afternoon into the
evening hours. The lake effect clouds are starting to break and erode
away upstream from us in southern Michigan and far northwest
Ohio. This clearing of the lake effect clouds should excel later
this morning after sunrise with most of the area seeing sunshine
and fair weather skies by midday into the afternoon.
Temperatures will be very seasonable for mid February, in the
mid to upper 30s this afternoon. With afternoon sunshine and
light winds, 30s in mid February is not so bad. It could be lot
worse this time of year.

High pressure will be over the region this evening before
sliding eastward late tonight. Overnight low temps will fall
into the 20s tonight. High level cloudiness will start to
increase this evening and overnight ahead of the next fast
moving low pressure system. This clipper like system will track
through the southern and eastern Great Lakes region tomorrow.
The surface low will track across southern Ontario during the
day Thursday and strengthen as it moves towards Lake Ontario. A
trailing cold front will swing through during the afternoon.
There will be a round of light rain with this system mainly
along and just ahead of the frontal passage. Winds will increase
become quite gusty Thursday, starting out from the south and
becoming west- southwesterly behind the front in the afternoon.
Wind speeds will increase to 20 to 25 mph areawide with gusts
possibly up to 40 or 45 mph. That potential for strong gusty
winds will be greater for areas closer to the lakeshore of Lake
Erie. We will be monitoring forecast trends regarding the high
wind gust potential. We might need a wind advisory for areas
along the lakeshore. Rainfall will be light average up to a
tenth of an inch over NWOH and up to two tenths of an inch
towards far NEOH/NWPA. High temperatures on Thursday will climb
up into the mid to upper 40s before the cold front moves
through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air aloft characterized by 850 mb temperatures of around -12 C
is advected in by strong northwest flow. Lake effect snow is likely
to develop Thursday night with this cold air aloft, especially for
Northwest Pennsylvania where there is 60-80% PoPs and 0.5-1.5" of
snow forecast.

A weak shortwave trough moves east across the Ohio Valley Friday and
Friday night, followed very quickly by a larger upper-level trough
from the northwest Friday night. Best forcing and moisture content
will be located south of our region, with light snow expected across
the region Friday afternoon through Friday night. PoPs remain
similar to the previous forecast but QPF has been lowered
significantly with only a dusting (0.5" or less) of snow expected.
Best chance of 1" or more of snow will be towards the southern part
of our forecast area in central Ohio.

A much colder airmass will accompany the upper-level trough, both at
the surface and aloft. Surface temperatures will largely be in the
20s all day Saturday (maybe touching 30 in some spots), down to low
20s Saturday night. Temperatures will be quite cold, model mean 850
mb temperatures bottoming out at -16 C during the day Saturday. No
doubt this will support lake effect snow. Flow will initially be out
of the northwest Friday night, which will target the typically
primary snowbelt areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
A compact shortwave trough approaches from the northwest, crossing
the Great Lakes region Saturday and Saturday night. This will
provide additional lift and another source of moisture. This will
also probably result in some oscillation of wind direction (between
northwest and west). Confidence in impactful accumulating lake
effect snow is increasing, especially for during the day Saturday
when lake-induced instability is expected to be at its greatest and
when additional synoptic lift/moisture from an approaching shortwave
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
It's possible some lake effect snow could linger into Sunday, but
flow out of the southwest, increasing temperatures, and decreasing
moisture makes it less likely, and probably more limited to
Northwest Pennsylvania if it does happen. High pressure over the
southern Mississippi Valley extended a ridge northward into the
region Sunday afternoon/evening before becoming centered over the
mid-Atlantic region by Monday. South and southwest flow on the
backside of this high will result in warming temperatures on Monday
and Tuesday, with highs back into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The stratus deck over NE Ohio and NW PA will slowly erode over
the next couple of hours as high pressure builds in, so have all
sites VFR by 20Z. Light NW winds this afternoon and evening will
become S to SE at 5-10 knots tonight with VFR conditions
continuing as the high drifts toward the east coast.

Unfortunately, the good flight conditions will be short lived
as a fast moving, potent low pressure system moves across the
southern Great Lakes Thursday. This system will spread light
rain showers across the region from west to east from mid
morning into the early afternoon, likely starting as a little
rain/snow mix at KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. This will gradually
drop cigs and vis to low VFR or mid range MVFR which will
continue through after the TAF cycle. However, the biggest
impact will be gusty winds. As the trailing cold front moves
across the region from late morning through mid afternoon, winds
will veer to the SW and then W with a period of 15-25 knot
sustained speeds gusting to 30-40+ knots. The strongest gusts
are expected in NW and north central Ohio and along the
lakeshore, so KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, KCLE, and KERI will see the
biggest impacts. The time window of the strongest gusts will be
between 15 and 20Z when forecast soundings suggest the strongest
mixing into a 55 knot low-level jet at 850 mb.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in light rain/snow showers Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night in NE Ohio and NW PA. Additional
non-VFR may be possible with scattered light lake effect snow
showers Friday into Saturday, mainly for the snowbelt areas
downwind of Lake Erie.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds in today, resulting in diminishing winds and
waves on Lake Erie. South winds increase tonight as the high departs
to the east and a low develops to the west. This low moves east
across the Great Lakes region, moving just north of Lake Erie.
Strong west winds develop on Thursday afternoon and then northwest
winds Thursday night. Strongest winds are expected around 21Z
Thursday to 09Z Friday. The entirety of Lake Erie should experience
at least 25 knot winds with peak winds of gale force expected on the
eastern basin. A Gale Watch has been issued for nearshore and open
waters east of Geneva-on-the-Lake. Gale-force winds are expected to
be of relatively short duration (~9 hours) with northwest winds
quickly diminishing to less than 20 knots by Friday morning.
Stronger west and northwest winds of 20 knots are expected to return
Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for LEZ148-149-168-169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
405 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

LEZ145>147-165>167-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-150915-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
405 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gusty westerly winds up to 45 mph could be possible Thursday into
Thursday evening, especially for areas closer to the lakeshore of
Lake Erie.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-148-149-168-169-150915-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
405 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142>144-162>164-150915-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
405 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong west to southwest winds over Lake Erie may cause water levels
to drop near the critical mark for safe navigation over the western
basin Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.